fujiwara79

technically florida allows 100% occupancy at sports venues, but nobody has tried to do that.

this also isn't a classic miller B.  it's closer to a miller A, if anything.  And miller A's tend to have more warm air with them.

Even with vaccination increasing, I would expect some outbreaks arise once we truly go back to normal, i.e. packed stadiums, concerts, conferences.  As vaccination levels increase, restrictions will decrease - which, for a while, will probably be counteracting forces that keep case counts relatively high for a while.

7 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Hospitalizations in PA supposedly fell by 200 today. Feels like a bit of a phony drop with cases +35% in last 7 days.

death counts are high there.  hospitalization counts tend to flatten off once the death counts get high.  sometimes you have other data issues where not all hospitals are reporting.

7 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Call me what you want.  My company has hired 245 people in the last month alone.

ah yes, you're probably one of those people who thinks "my neighbor is doing great, therefore we can't be in a recession".

my company has grown too.  doesn't mean the economy hasn't slowed down.  our 14 trillion economy isn't represented by your company.

2 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

We are not heading for a double dip recession. Stop the hyperbole. 

I guess most economists are also engaging in hyperbole because they’re worried about the same thing.  The economy has slowed down big time since the summer.  That’s irrefutable. 

pennsylvania is closing indoor dining and gyms for the rest of the calendar year.

we've become a third world country in some respects.  not in terms of wealth, but in terms of government and societal dysfunction.  we have 3000 people dying per day and slowly heading into a double-dip recession.  our government is incapable of addressing the needs of the people.  meanwhile, we have a gigantic fundraising scam going on ($500 million dollars and counting) that is completely based on a fake story ("rigged" election).  geez, donate your money to a food bank instead.  were people this stupid 20 years ago?  i'd like to think not, but maybe social media has made stupidity contagious.

2 hours ago, mattb65 said:

"Not that fatal" 

by his logic, heart disease and cancer aren't that fatal either.  actually, by his logic, nothing is really that fatal.  lol

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And that's the part of this I don't understand...why hasn't there been more federal support for these small businesses? And how does our response in this area measure against other developed countries supporting their small businesses?

i believe that the european countries that are currently under restrictions gave people/businesses money in advance.

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

It's a very real truth; suicides and abuse are increasing.   All for something that is not that fatal.  

you do realize that covid is the leading cause of death in america right now, correct?  but other than that, sure, it's not fatal.

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/327311/americans-mental-health-ratings-sink-new-low.aspx?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=855206&refcd=855206&utm_source=RevelantResources&seid=

No one really wants to talk about it, but how many lives can we lose as "collateral damage" and no even bother to question it?  These mental health statistics are just the tip of the iceberg.  Is the cure worse than the disease?  I don't know.

but i think those tradeoffs were considered.  at the end of the day, would you allow, say, 2 million people to die in order to prevent a hypothetical 10% increase in the suicide rate?  currently, there's been an increase in suicides amongst health care workers because they've been working practically nonstop for the past 9 months and they feel like nothing is being done to help them.

hospitalizations have dropped significantly in iowa.  i think they are pulling the plug on people and that's why death counts are so high but also why there are less hospitalized patients.

4 hours ago, Nickysixes said:

They don't  mention people are wearing the same masks for weeks at a time, basically helping spread "Covid"

I also heard that anti-maskers don't change their underwear for weeks at a time.  And wearing the same underwear that long helps spread "Covid"

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Are outpatient clinics included in the hospital numbers?  Just  covid tested for a colonoscopy screening

No, hospitalizations are, by definition, inpatient.

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

They were in the hospital for an unrelated related reason, but got testing upon admission most likely.

so if they checked into the hospital for blood clots, but they tested positive for Covid upon admission, how do they know Covid didn't cause (or exacerbate) the blood clots?

Or if someone with COPD checks into the hospital for shortness of breath, but test positive for Covid upon admission, how do they know Covid wasn't exacerbating their pre-existing lung issues?

That's why I don't understand how 30% of Covid hospitalizations are "asymptomatic".  They're obviously symptomatic of something -- otherwise they wouldn't be in the hospital.  How do they know their symptoms aren't being caused/exacerbated by Covid given that they tested positive? 

6 hours ago, South Shore Slop said:

 At Mass. General, for example, about 30 percent of COVID patients are at the hospital primarily for some other reason — but also happen to test positive for COVID. They are mostly asymptomatic.

If they don't have symptoms of anything, why are they checking into a hospital?  People generally don't want to spend the night at a hospital unless they're not feeling well.  Perhaps Covid is causing their symptoms or exacerbating them

Hospitalizations tend to plateau when the death counts get high.  I suspect the hospitalization counts will rise much more slowly given that so many are dying and thus leaving the hospital.

6 hours ago, 40westwx said:

Other really good news is that the mortality rates for 2020 were just released (cdc does it in season.. September to September)

The death rate - deaths per 100,000 people was about the same as the last few years:

 

United States - Historical Death Rate Data
Year	Death Rate	Growth Rate
2020	8.880	1.120%
2019	8.782	1.120%
2018	8.685	1.220%
2017	8.580	1.240%
2016	8.475	1.270%
2015	8.369	1.270%
2014	8.264	1.290%
2013	8.159	0.090%
2012	8.152	0.090%

 

Crude death rates jumped by a couple 100 thousand, and thats on par with jumps we have seen in previous years.  Every year about 3 million people die... so to see a spike in a couple hundred thousand is normal.. also remember our population growth rate is also at 1-2%.. thats six million people a year.  

 

 

Those 2020 numbers are based on UN projections and do not include impacts from COVID-19.  That disclaimer is written at the top of the page where it’s sourced from.  I understand you’re a full blown denier but at least read the sources that you reference from.

with vaccines coming soon, I think we might - just might - be rounding the corner.  granted, it's a sharp corner with jagged edges.

4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

no deaths??? where???

 

I think he's going by what one executive at one hospital told him, and extrapolating that to the entire country.  I'm surprised to see that level of inductive reasoning on a supposedly scientific message board.

We're probably going to hit at least 2000 deaths today, and we'll probably average around 2500 deaths per day during the upcoming peak.

On 11/29/2020 at 12:57 PM, 40westwx said:

Precisely.. so we get about 30% of the nation even with all of this social distancing.. 

With no social distancing we would have hit the 70% sweet spot in about 1month back in March .. if schools and colleges were allowed to remain.. the vast majority of those cases would have been asymptomatic.. healthy population would build immunity and provide protection for those who dont do as well with this.. this would have saved lives.

Instead, the virus meanders its way through the elderly population.. one nursing home/ palliative care facility at a time..

Additionally, if hospital protocols would have been sensible (like they are today), tens of thousands of lives would have been saved by not putting people in medically induced comas.  

Fear has driven this from the beginning. As a result, countless lives have been lost.

 

oh boy.  we've got a herd immunity guy here.

Sweden tried your approach.  They hoped that they would get herd immunity during the spring.  While the rest of the world would experience a second wave, Sweden would avoid it, or so they thought.  That hasn't happened.  They are nowhere near herd immunity even though they tried to get there.  Now they've backtracked and are issuing restrictions that are more stringent than what we have here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/sweden-says-it-sees-no-signs-herd-immunity-is-stopping-the-virus

If only 20% of the country has been infected, that's basically proof that masks and distancing work.  We'd undoubtedly be at 40% at least without those measures.

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Just a total disaster all the way around. Hopefully America learns from its mistakes when this is over

Trust me, we won't.