I don’t necessarily think it will sit there but I think the initial temps will be colder than currently modeled. This often happens in CAD setups. I know you know that though.
Just looked up the ocean water temp in Va Beach today. It is 47 and the mean temp for the climate period 1981-2005 was 53 for this date. Not gonna look this up at every site but Atlantic and Gulf water temps are always pretty warm relative to freezing this time of year. They are colder later in the winter which is probably one reason we are snowier late in the season as opposed to earlier.
I don’t think the sky is falling yet.
There would definitely be some CAD at least at the beginning. Of course this is assuming this unfolds as projected, but if so, I would definitely expect a colder profile at game time.