jlh

30 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Looks great!

Not often we end up in the jackpot zone in my area, i'll take whatever we can get! Definitely like the trends in the models today.

13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

GFS is kinda like Dak prescott. Sucks when it matters.

Now that's some high quality insight lol

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now wait a minute we can't have a Ji AND and Jih in here too, lol

it's an L lol

1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

i'm not too enthused on superbowl sunday. based on where this longwave trough is looking to set up, I don't see things coming far enough south/east for us for this thing not to be a cutter, in whatever form it is (dry arctic front still on the table). I think that at least in the medium term, a better look is saturday and some of the little waves running ahead of the trough... they're suppressed now, but these features inching their way NW through different model suites seem to be in the same tier as death and taxes. 

On a different note, whatever is showing up around the 200 hr mark is a classic signal, and probably what i'm most excited for.

Agreed, not overly impressed with this weekend's look just yet though there is still time. However, next week definitely has a good look if it holds true. 

2 hours ago, Quasievil said:

After the recent debacle, I’m having trouble buying into anything. Am I alone there?

Looking better than most of what's been thrown at is the past few seasons, when I am getting excited over an inch, you know it's been rough lol.

4 hours ago, psurulz said:

Wow...hopefully this is a good sign seeing that the threat is still a week away.

No kidding, someone is feeling a bit bullish. I don't think NWS Wakefield even considers these until 3 days out lol.

23 minutes ago, frd said:

Besides the holiday period warm up of recent years the  multi-year lack of BM storms and the propensity of inland runners and cutters look as a risk to possibly continue this month. Hopefully we get a opportunity to score during mid month. One nasty cold outbreak being forecast mid-month as you mentioned. Maybe a Manitoba Mauler would be nice .

 

Agree here, it seems like at least for the start a repeat of the inland pattern of the previous few seasons.

12 hours ago, toolsheds said:

I wore shorts and flip flops today. 

Ha! You and me both! Always kept handy at the front of the closet.

On 9/20/2020 at 9:22 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t disagree but when you’re looking at 100 year trends you also have to take into consideration the differences in urban areas along that 100 year journey. Lot more concrete and asphalt now vs then. The March 2013 storm is a great example. Just a few miles outside of that heat island was heavy snow. A degree or two made all the difference.

I think to draw conclusions on the 100 year trend with snowfall you’d have to get away from urban locations and look at a small regional collection of data. I know that I’ve looked at the data for Winchester and the thing that stands out the most is the randomness of the high and low snowfall totals.

I definitely think the climate will be a factor, just not sure that’s necessarily gonna show up in snow totals, or what that factor will be. Now if we get 10 of the next 15 winters as warm as last year, I might be singing a different tune.

That is a very valid point. I'll have to take a look at some of the more remote locations...

23 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is good. People forget that we had a pretty bad run from the late 80’s into the early 90’s as well. I’m also old enough to remember some clunkers in the early 70’s. Climate is longer than a few years, even longer than 30 if you want to be honest about it.

I think it is more the longer term trends that we are looking at here, i'm not sold that the climate is not a factor. Looking at historical snowfall for DCA back to the late 1800s you can see a pretty consistent downward trend. Yes, some big years... But the recent "big hits" used to be the norm. Obviously there will always be ups and downs but the trend is definitely something to keep in mind.

dcasnow.pdf

Model forecasts didn't quite live up where I am, expectation was 3", got just a hair over an inch.

7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Everyone shifted south in terms of climo. DCA is RIC. RIC is RDU. BWI is DCA. RDU is ATL. Adjust accordingly. 

Interesting way to see it, and seemingly accurate. Imagine where this trend will put us all in another decade or two...