Intensewind002

24 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Most of Isaias wind gusts were in the 50s and 60s across long island minus one or two in the 70s 

I recorded a gust to 69 mph in Lindenhurst on my weather station, of course it helped that it was right on the bay since that's where my aunt and uncle lived at the time but around the same time KFRG reported a gust to 78. I was basing it off that kfrg report but I agree, it was more realistically in the 50s and 60s for the most part

Storm total so far back at home is 1.95", but it looks like it's raining pretty heavily again

I'd be surprised if there are wide spread power outages in suffolk, at least on the south shore. There has to be wind gusts to at least around 75-80 mph (ala Sandy, Isaias, march 2010 noreaster) to really get anything beyond moderate where I live, and maybe more around 60-65 if the ground is saturated enough like with Irene, which only the forks are probably gonna see.

I haven't really been tracking this event so forgive me if someone has said/asked this already, but is this going to be similar to a closer to the coast version of the 1991 Perfect Storm? The retrograde and the fact that it may transition to a subtropical or tropical system makes me think maybe.

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

The radars look worse than the reality up this way

Yeah here in Albany it wasn’t as much of an event as I was expecting

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Being from NC with property in Carteret county, it’s pretty dang hard to see Florence and “bust” in same sentence but I guess if we’re going off pure LF intensity than I’ll agree haha!
 

Florence slowed down to a crawl which meant it’s intensity was not sustainable over shelf waters but it became one of the most damaging storms in history due to that slow speed. 
 

Also, it at least attained and maintained cat 4 multiple times. Pamela made it to 70 kts 

Yeah I stand corrected, it really isn’t all that comparable. Looking at the Florence archive, it was only forecasted to be a Cat 4 at landfall before the stall was a factor. After it started showing up on model runs, it was lowered to Cat 3 and eventually 2, (i honestly think it might have been a 85 kt hurricane at landfall). Plus the intensity had no effect on the severe flooding that you guys experienced

13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know no one is following this thread but this could be one of the worst landfalling intensity busts in recent memory. Forecasting a 120 mph hurricane and noting it could be higher and realizing a TS-minimal hurricane would be a nightmare for publicity if this was happening in the US inside 36 hours. I know intensity forecasts are tough, but yikes 

The only recent US hurricane bust I can think of that was that bad was probably Florence, nhc was predicting at Cat 4 landfall at some point if i remember correctly 

Pretty bad intensity forecast wise from most models across the board with Pamela this past week. I remember everyone thinking this could be a Cat 4 landfall not too long ago, now it’ll probably be a Cat 2 at highest possible intensity, and even that is a long shot, although I’m sure a lot of people on the west coast of mexico are happy they didn’t get a patricia redux

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

In recent times, hurricane Bob was impressive looking with a well defined eye as it passed to the east of the Maryland Delaware coast. Not as well defined looking as Sam.

I hope one day we can get computer programs that can initialize past storms and the atmospheric conditions around them and show us how they exactly looked structurally proceding and at landfall or as close to reality as possible. I always wanted to see how storms like the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes, hurricane carol, 1935 hurricane, hurricane Hazel etc. would have looked with our current technology.

1 hour ago, Amped said:

 

Phasing porn

Extratropical Sam might be almost as impressive as tropical Sam

What is the threshold for farthest north 130 kt+ hurricane in the open atlantic? Sam has to be approaching it at this point

In Lindenhurst, It seems I’ll finish the month with exactly 5.6” of rain. Low was 53 last night, the coldest of the month so far. We hit 39 for the low here in Albany by comparison

Is it me or is same looking a little annularish suddenly

Just a gut feeling, but I think we’ll get another 2 or maybe even 3 majors from Caribbean season this year

19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

That seems to be fairly cyclic as well, a cluster of high end cat 4 or higher US landfalls happened in the 1920s into the 30s (plus a 150 mph cat 4 in 1919) and again in the 1960s, (Donna, Carla, and Camille)

I love watching red taggers duke it out

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Increasingly, satellite seems to be indicating an EWRC is underway. Will be interesting to to see what recon shows

As is tradition recon arrives right after Sam’s peak 

I wonder if Jose from 2017 may be a decent track analog

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I grew up in Massapequa, remember Doria and Belle as a child.  I'm really here for the New York landfall possibilities.  If the 240 Euro forecast is still a weak cut off to pull Sam North surrounded by ridging to keep it from escaping East on the 12Z run, I might post in Facebook for my cousins still living up there.

Were you there for Gloria? My dad is from North Babylon and suffolk got hit really hard wind damage (wind was worse than Sandy according to him). Not sure but I think the Nassau Suffolk border was also the border between who got hurricane force winds and who didn’t on LI. I’m only 21 so Sandy is the worst storm I’ve ever witnessed

Wow NHC already forecasting for a major this early, this might be the strongest 5 day for an initial forecast I’ve ever seen for the Atlantic. If i remember correctly I think the highest beforehand was 95 kts with Ida, Larry, and a group of other hurricanes though I can’t quite remember which ones

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

look at the intense convection about to wrap in.. thats a big change from a few hours ago

Looks like it’ll get sheared apart again

All the storms managed to go around albany today  I think I brought some the long island anti-storm barrier with me up here

53 minutes ago, Cholorob said:

Just a casual observer here - but constantly, and in group fashion, ripping on a guy whose opinion you disagree with isn’t a great look. Perhaps you don’t like the style in which he delivers his message, there is after all a lot to be said about form over substance, nonetheless the blowback is a little extreme for a discussion among people who are passionate about the same thing. 2 cents.

I’ve been lurking here since 2017 and I remember him doing this even then, 3 years before I even made an account…

He’s obviously a weather enthusiast because you wouldn’t be on this site otherwise, but it became pretty obvious he is a troll after a while and to be honest, I really don’t get why someone would troll a bunch of like minded people. Especially in smaller community like this one

Looks like the gulf invest may become Nicholas before the east atlantic one at this rate

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I hate both sea breeze and humidity lol.  Last 100 here was 2013, same with you?

 

For me the last 100 was in 2011, we hit 102 with a dewpoint of almost 80. Probably the hottest day I’ve ever experienced…

I think we were forecasted to hit 100 in 2013 but “only” peaked at 97 during the hottest day of that summer