Brian D

This date in Wx History March 14. Interesting that the term "Blizzard" was introduced to the populace back in 1870. Wonder what terms were used prior to that? Rather nasty ice storm in 1943.

Duluth had it's weather office at a downtown location until the late 50's I believe, and airport data started in the late 20's, so there was overlap that was threaded.

1943: Snow, sleet and ice cripple parts of Minnesota south of a line from Duluth through St. Cloud and Ortonville. The heaviest ice was in the vicinities of Lake Benton, Springfield and Windom. Ice thickness was 1/2 to 3/4 inch around St. Cloud to 3/4 to 2 inches in the Pipestone, Ruthton, Lake Wilson, Slayton and Tracy. A good description of the ice was submitted in one report: '…ice was 2 inches across and 1 3/4 inch deep on wire. A little frost ice near the wire with the outside solid ice. The ice was irregular in shape.' Duluth had 6 inches of snowfall at the city office with 13 inches at the airport. The ice was confined to Moose Lake and south.

1870: A severe snow and wind storm moves across Minnesota and Iowa. The 'Northern Vindicator' of Estherville, Iowa becomes the first newspaper to use the term 'blizzard' on this date.

7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol brutal

 

LOL. Let's just pick 1974 as a start date. So funny LOL 

Like there isn't data going back another 30-50 years at least.

And so it begins again. UGH!

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Everyone better hope for widespread clear skies on April 8th. 

Yeah, I cringed a bit when I put up my forecast. Fingers crossed for stellar viewing.

Speaking of the eclipse, I put my forecast for it on the Holiday Forecast thread today.

Wx been so boring around here, and dry. Classic El Nino wx I guess.

And I'll be posting Feb/Winter anom charts a little late this month. Want to wait for more datasets to report. Gonna be close to the record of Feb 1998, if not beat it.

56 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Since Easter ends March, and April 1st is indicated with my forecast for then, there isn't much for holiday or observance in April. There is, however an observance for National Library Worker's on April 9th. Looks like a system will be moving in bringing some warmer weather, and a threat for showers/stms.

Forgot about the solar eclipse. Hope this is wrong, but a quick moving front on the 7th-8th moving through our region. If this pans, hopefully it'll be through before the start of the event during the afternoon.

On 2/7/2024 at 2:11 PM, Brian D said:

My forecast for St. Patty's day this year looks like CA system moving through the N with potential energy affecting the S sub.

A few days to go, but pattern looks good so far for mid March. Need more precip my way tho.

On May Day (May1st) looking at a front moving through with chilly air behind.

On Earth Day, April 22nd, I'm looking at a front moving through with possible energy running along the boundary. Should kick up some wx followed by some cooler air.

Since Easter ends March, and April 1st is indicated with my forecast for then, there isn't much for holiday or observance in April. There is, however an observance for National Library Worker's on April 9th. Looks like a system will be moving in bringing some warmer weather, and a threat for showers/stms.

Winds kicked up last night, and still running up to 30 mph off the Lake. Temps stable in the upper 30's. Forecast highs for today a little overdone. Usually it's the opposite. Need precip badly. Avg is 2.2" for Jan-Feb, but only have 0.79" so far this year.

So from what I can see, Minneapolis, Des Moines, Milwaukee, and Lansing had their warmest winter this past season. The rest of the longer period stns were scattered in the top 10 (mostly top 5) for the Midwest region in general. Now on to Spring.  Technically that is LOL!

For weatherbo in Marquette, MI, Feb was 5th. 1877/78 were 2400 readings, and the rest were 0800. Even making + 1 adjustments here makes no difference.

1998 - 32.6 (~33.6)

1878 - 32.4

1877 - 32.1

2000 - 29.7 (~30.7)

*2024 - 29.4 (~30.4)

My neighbors to the south in MSP had a record month.

*2024 - 33.3

1877/1931/98 - 31.9

1954 - 31.7

1987 - 31.6

1878 - 31.5

LaCrosse, WI 2nd

1878 - 36.7

*2024 - 35.4

1877 - 34.2

1998 - 34.1

1882 - 33.7

Feb at DLH 4th warmest.

1877 - 31.3

1878 - 31.0

1998 - 29.0

*2024 - 27.3

1931 - 26.1

Here in TH it was 4th (raw) as well, but it's 0700 reading now since 2021. PM the rest of it's history since 1894. That would make it 2nd with at least a +1 correction. The other years would receive an approx - 1 adjustment for pm readings.

1998 - 31.4 (~30.4)

1931 - 28.6 (~27.6)

1987 - 28.0 (~27.0)

*2024 - 27.9 (~28.9)

2012 - 27.1 (~26.1)

Very dry Feb here in TH at 0.27", but tied 15th for least precip. Only 0.3" of snow for the month ties 1st with 1998 as least snowiest.

Cold day here with am temps -sd's and currently running in the mid teens in the early pm. 0.1" of snow from the snow showers yesterday. Rapid warm up for the weekend with a chance of rain before temps go back to more avg early next week.

Throwing in Marquette, MI record, shows similar. Should make a note here. MAR was 2400 readings until Jan 1979. Then went Co-op in May 1979 at 2100 readings. Then to 0800 readings in Aug 1996. Winter time adjustment would avg + 1-1.5F. That makes the avg DJF much closer in the rankings for this season, and 97-98/2001-02.

1877-1878 - 30.7

*2023-2024 - 29.1

1997-1998 - 28.4

2001-2002 - 27.4

1931-1932 - 27.1

Starting with 0800 time, MMTS was put in place, so a digital set up locks in the time, and auto resets I believe. When using Max/Min set up, observers would have to manually reset when they took readings, leaving the actual reading time a bit in flux as people are not robots.

Looks like a solid 2nd place for DLH this winter, but still 3F cooler than 1877/78.

1877-1878 - 28.0

*2023-2024 - 25.1

1997-1998 - 22.4

1881-1882 - 22.0

1930-1931 - 21.5

MSP will have this one in the bag by 1F.

*2023-2024 - 30.0

1877-1878 - 28.9

1930-31/2001-02 - 26.8

2011-2012 - 26.2

1881-1882 - 26.0

And just a few miles down river at LaCrosse a solid 2nd about 2 1/2F cooler than 1877/78.

1877-1878 - 34.2

*2023-2024 - 31.6

1881-1882 - 29.6

2001-2002 - 29.2

1997-1998 - 28.8

Looks like MSP is a hotspot up this way in the our part of the sub.  

Light snow with W/NW winds up to 25-30. Temps peaked around 1 pm in the mid 40's, and now down to upper teens at almost 5 pm. Can feel this old house breathing the cold air. Chilly!

This will just be a rude slap in the face this evening/tomorrow. 

Been a day or two since I was able post anything like this.  

A little winter in the offing.

Personally, as horrible of a winter as it has been my way, it's also great to experience one from almost 150 yrs ago. Reminds me of the winters in NJ back in my Army days. Folks would complain on the little bit of cold that would show up, and I would just laugh at them. "This is nothing, man. You guys don't know what a real winter is like." Of course, most of my buddies were southern boys, so I get it. 

Birds flying around, dry leaves blowing around in mid Feb. Love it! Glad to have experienced such a mild winter that's so similar to 1877/78. 

Looking ahead, I see GFS wants to spin up a storm around leap day. My modelling suggests LP in the region around that time. There is potential. A little winter would be nice to see as well. 

On 1/2/2024 at 1:51 PM, Brian D said:

President's Day forecast looks interesting for the S areas. Hope it pans.

So-so cast here. HP over CA, but southern LP was much further S along the Gulf. Boundary to the W. Looks like some energy moving into the region on the 20th with little fanfare before a stronger LP moves in around the 22nd as a rain maker in the S areas.

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean this is a little suspect, no? Ends in 2000, but you get the point... snow depth trend would probably be more pronounced if there were still observations at the airport.  Somehow snow depth was higher 100+ years ago, despite snowfall being 50% of recent decades. 

If average seasonal snowfall doubled, why has mean snow depth decreased if every season? Certainly, the temperatures have warmed somewhat, but it's still mainly below freezing in Keweenaw.

Mean Snow Depth (Winter)

Mean Snow Depth (Spring)

Mean Snow Depth (Fall)

Mean Snow Depth (Annual)

You need SWE data along with that analysis. That would be helpful, but don't think there's any early data with that metric. If there is, take a look at that. Early data also tends to have more missing data, as well.

Oh, and that stn is also threaded. Actual proximity to the lakeshore, and elevation in it's history is a big player.