Brian D

Thought I'd post this showing a modelled sounding vs an actual sounding from I-Falls this morning. You can find actual soundings here. https://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.shtml

Snow on doorstep.

January 15 1972: Cold air invades the region with a minimum temperature of -33 degrees F at Alexandria, -32 at Eau Claire, and -29 at the Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport.

January 14 1981: Over 24,000 Canada Geese are present at Silver Lake in Rochester. 1952: A sleet and freezing rain storm develops across Minnesota from St Cloud south into Iowa. 1,100 Northwestern Bell telephone wires are knocked down. The Buffalo Ridge in the Pipestone area is the hardest hit with ¾ inches of solid ice on Northern State Power wires with icicles to 3 inches. Northwestern Bell reported ice up to 1 ½ inches on their wires in the same area. Thunder and a shower of ice pellets accompanied the storm in New Ulm and Mankato. Minneapolis General Hospital treated 81 people, victims of falls on icy streets.

Here's the maps of that day. 29.38 over MSP in the aftrn, then 29.27 over DLH that night. Still 29.27 in DLH the next morning, but HP (30.50) sinking S over Montana with 30.14 over near Fargo/Moorehead area. That's a tight gradient! The low slowly weakened over L Superior, and spread out, keeping a decent gradient over MN into the 9th n 10th. 30.30's across SW MN with 29.90 over DLH on the 9th but steadily increasing over DLH. Pretty much over by midday 10th.

Looks like a decent WAA event with this clipper diving in from the NNW. The initial banding looks good, especially N of me. Hope that reality puts me in the bullseye, too. Have seen 6-8" from similar setups. But I'll be satisfied with half that. Beggars can't be choosers as they say.

Even after warmer temps, and rain, the snowpack here survived just fine. It's more like a glacier after the warming, and cooling episodes with small snows added. A couple more inches forecast for tomorrow into Friday morning.

Rain showers have been moving through this afternoon. The winds have started to pick up as well, bringing in colder air. Going to be an ice rink out there later this evening.

Thin coating of ice this morning with a T of snow too. Looking forward to an inch or two of snow Thurs. Then bitter wx arrives.

January 13 1916: The high temperature in the Twin Cities only reaches a frigid -14 degrees.

The model runs I'm seeing today for late Jan is what I was talking about here for the potential I see in my own modelling method. Cold with clippers, but Western energy sliding in too, shaking things up. A bit of both would make for a wild month. And it looks like right into early March as well. For me, tho, that means mostly CAD, which sucks, as we really need the precip. Oct thru present has been slim on the moisture.

But the sunny wx will be short lived. Messy wx on tap with a little snow to end the week.

Was going to start posting these at the New Year, but slipped my mind. This date in weather history in MN January 1 2003: On this date there is an inch or less of snow on the ground from Duluth to the Iowa border. In the Twin Cities there isn't even a dirty snowbank to be found. 1997: Freezing rain causes numerous accidents along the North Shore. In Lake County, vehicles could not get up hills and were blocking roads. Highway 61 was closed for several hours from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. 1864: Extremely cold air moves into Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a high of 25 degrees below zero. January 2 1941: Grand Portage gets over 4.5 inches of precipitation in 24 hours. That's roughly how much normally falls there during the 'winter' months from November to February. January 3 1981: Arctic air visits Minnesota. Embarrass, Wannaska, and Tower all hit 38 below zero. 1977: 14.2 inches of snow falls in Mankato. January 4 1981: Air cold enough to freeze a mercury thermometer pours into Minnesota. Tower hits 45 below zero. 1971: A snowstorm moves through the Upper Midwest. Winona gets over 14 inches. January 5 2012: Record warmth is felt across the state. Many locations in western Minnesota soared over 50 degrees, with temperatures reaching the 60s at Marshall, Canby, and Madison. This was the first record of any 60 degree temperatures in Minnesota during the first week of January. January 6 1942: The temperature rises from 32 below zero to 41 above in 24 hours in Pipestone. January 7 2003: Record warmth develops over Minnesota. Many places reached the 50s, including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning. 1873: A storm named the 'Great Blizzard' hits Minnesota. This three-day blizzard caused extreme hardship for pioneers from out east who were not used to the cold and snow. Visibility was down to three feet. Cows suffocated in the deep drifts and trains were stuck for days. More than 70 people died, and some bodies were not found until spring. Weather conditions before the storm were mild, just like the Armistice Day storm. January 8 1902: A January Thaw occurs across Minnesota. The Twin Cities experience a high of 46 degrees. January 9 1982: Both January 9th and 10th would have some of the coldest windchills ever seen in Minnesota. Temperatures of -30 and winds of 40 mph were reported in Northern Minnesota. This would translate to windchills of -71 with the new windchill formula, and -100 with the old formula. 1934: A sleet and ice storm hits southwest Minnesota. Hardest hit locations were Slayton, Tracy and Pipestone. The thickest ice was just east of Pipestone with ice measuring 6 to 8 inches in diameter. At Holland in Pipestone County three strands of #6 wire measured 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed 33 ounces per foot. The ice was described as: 'Very peculiar information being practically round on three sides, the lower side being ragged projectiles like icicles: in other words pointed. The frost and ice were wet, not flaky like frost usually is. In handling this, it could be squeezed into a ball and did not crumble.' January 10 1990: A January 'heat wave' forms. MSP Airport warms to 49 degrees. 1975: The 'Blizzard of the Century' begins. Also called the 'Super Bowl Blizzard,' it was one of the worst blizzards ever. The pressure hit a low of 28.62. This was the record until 1998. January 11 1975: A blizzard continues with hurricane force winds in southwestern Minnesota. 1899: An odd flash of lightning lights the clouds up around 9 pm at Maple Plain. January 12 2000: Snow falls in a narrow band over the Twin Cities. Maplewood receives 5.5 inches, while Chanhassen gets 12. 1888: The infamous 'Blizzard of '88' occurs. It hit during a mild day when many children were heading home from school. They made up the majority of the 200 people that died. At the end of the storm the thermometer at St. Paul read -37.

Nice sunny day, and not bitter. That's always a plus. Colder months are so cloudy. Sunny days lift the spirit.

Earth Day again needs watching as a front moves through in the N, with potential energy from the W or SW sneaking into the picture.