Duca892
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Everything posted by Duca892
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MT. Holly still pretty aggressive in their update.
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Specifically for the Lehigh Valley when all is said and done I bet a WSW is issued for 6-9in with sleet mixed in. Outside of GFS the mixing is becoming an issue.
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Was pretty shocked with the NWS briefing from MT. Holly this morning. They have allentown at 76% chance to hit and exceed 12in and a 38% chance to hit and exceed 18in.
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It is very much my expectation at this point that going to a mix in the Lehigh Valley is a given (Probably even more North than that at this rate) and I really wouldn't be surprised if peopled topped out around 8in before the sleet mix. The huge totals of 12in+ would be amazing, but don't think its going to do it sadly
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GFS just absolutely demolishes people with 15-18in
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This is a really stupid question, so when i am looking at the 1st pic where for Allentown it says "-4" does that indicate that the upper levels are at 28 degrees (4 degrees less than freezing) and that Allentown is still snow?
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That trend simply terrifies me and why I feel pretty ok saying 6-8in for many before the slop
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Feel like the soundings drops definitely influenced things last evening and the extremes have leveled out. It feels like 6-8in+ and slop for most of SEPA
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It is wild to me though how we swung from a legit concern about suppression to now mix making as far north as the LV with potential to make it even farther north lol. We still get thumped though
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Man I be holding my breath during 0z GFS. Telling you nothing will shock me when the new data is taken in
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Whether shifts south or mix I don’t think the epic totals of 15-18in are going to verify. Those seemed to be the extreme case
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GFS definitely south. Think that’s the first model run all day I’ve seen with the LV with less than 10in
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ICON took a step north i believe, or QPF is lower, hacked off about 3-4ins from the LV from 12z to 18z
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would you say the threat is this turns into just an all out slop storm?
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Stolen from our friends on the MA Forum. Believe it is done at this point
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Know it isn't a forecast... but that has to be one of the widest swaths of 12-18in that i have ever seen
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that would be gross, remember that sleetfest even in Bethlehem well
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if the GFS happened as modeled this would go down as an all timer
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FWIW ICON was a smokeshow per maps from our MA Friends.
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Always scares me. I have PTSD from a storm about 6/7yrs ago that was looking to slam the Valley. Run after run. It got sampling and fresh data in an 0z suite and all of the sudden the models changed drastically and are 10in snow ended up being like 3in lol
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Just as long as it isn’t squash city
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Map is nuts drops like 17in kuchera all over SEPA up to Allentown
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Thanks to the MA. EURO is another smoke show
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Honestly my expectation too. It won’t shock me to see these 10+ inch runs shift back down south, but I like the majority of folks around the Berks/Lehigh area for 6-8in
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Hate how much time there is for this to go the other way still over 100hrs
