Bob's Burgers

Pretty large Enhanced Risk area this far out. Threat includes damaging squall line and supercells capable of all hazards -- ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday (day 4)--central Gulf Coast into the Mid-South... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northeast into the Canadian maritimes prior to Wednesday with a mid-level ridge remaining over FL/Bahamas. As a result, a CP airmass will not likely not infringe on the central Gulf Coast prior to Wednesday. There is increased agreement in model guidance for the evolution of a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough forecast to eject northeast from the southern Great Plains into the OH Valley on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models are in good agreement showing a previously stalled front advancing north across the Deep South, concurrent with a surface low developing/deepening as it moves northeastward from the northwest Gulf Coast and into TN/KY by early evening. Strong to very strong flow fields overspreading a destabilizing warm sector (featuring low-mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as parts of northern MS/AL) will support the potential for organized severe thunderstorms. In addition to a severe squall line, a supercell risk capable of all hazards is currently forecast. By Thursday (day 5), the ejecting disturbance will likely become increasingly displaced from a moist/unstable sector across the Southeast. However, uncertainty is too high to include a potential severe area due to thunderstorm evolution/magnitude of destabilization and predictability of larger-scale features. It appears severe potential will be minimal by Friday-Sunday (days 6-8) as the overall pattern becomes less supportive for thunderstorms over the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 02/09/2020

Significant tornado risk added to D1

Day 2 update/expansion with wording hinting at an upgrade if trends continue.

Slight Risk has been re-introduced for Day 2 in MS

1450 tornadoes first high risk: March 25th

Not much different for today's outlook; some of the risk areas got larger but the general idea remains unchanged.

New ECM (12z run of the Para) forecasts environments next week that would corroborate with the impressive GEFS SCP chiclet charts -- possible hyperactive end to June?