Bob's Burgers

Pretty large Enhanced Risk area this far out. Threat includes damaging squall line and supercells capable of all hazards -- ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday (day 4)--central Gulf Coast into the Mid-South... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northeast into the Canadian maritimes prior to Wednesday with a mid-level ridge remaining over FL/Bahamas. As a result, a CP airmass will not likely not infringe on the central Gulf Coast prior to Wednesday. There is increased agreement in model guidance for the evolution of a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough forecast to eject northeast from the southern Great Plains into the OH Valley on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models are in good agreement showing a previously stalled front advancing north across the Deep South, concurrent with a surface low developing/deepening as it moves northeastward from the northwest Gulf Coast and into TN/KY by early evening. Strong to very strong flow fields overspreading a destabilizing warm sector (featuring low-mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as parts of northern MS/AL) will support the potential for organized severe thunderstorms. In addition to a severe squall line, a supercell risk capable of all hazards is currently forecast. By Thursday (day 5), the ejecting disturbance will likely become increasingly displaced from a moist/unstable sector across the Southeast. However, uncertainty is too high to include a potential severe area due to thunderstorm evolution/magnitude of destabilization and predictability of larger-scale features. It appears severe potential will be minimal by Friday-Sunday (days 6-8) as the overall pattern becomes less supportive for thunderstorms over the Lower 48. ..Smith.. 02/09/2020

Significant tornado risk added to D1

Day 2 update/expansion with wording hinting at an upgrade if trends continue.

Slight Risk has been re-introduced for Day 2 in MS

1450 tornadoes first high risk: March 25th

Not much different for today's outlook; some of the risk areas got larger but the general idea remains unchanged.

He's still showing some odd stuff that's for sure.

Lots of damage in B'ham area

At least 3 are now confirmed dead near Carrollton from the tornado earlier.

Yeah that's what I was referring to. Looks like there is a small area of buildings right off the highway where it touched down (plus copious trees), so there should be quite a few damage indicators.

Basically there is a layer in the atmosphere where the winds are turning counterclockwise with height instead of clockwise with height which can screw up storm mode and meso cyclone maintenance (if it's really robust like that example).

might explain why these storms are failing

Tornado threat going up in texas; deep free sector convection is getting anchored with previous WAA elevation convection becoming surface-based.

There it is. Could be our first SigTor of the day

Probably not too far off from a significant tornado event in NE Oklahoma

Pretty impressive available streamwise vorticity ingested by this storm using local sfc obs, fort smith radar, and nws calculated storm motion

First real couplet of the day

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You could probably extend that further into AR if you believe that latest HRRR trends. The Super Tuesday analogue seems less comical now than it did a few days ago

What month is it again?