STxVortex

There's been all kinds of debris floating by for hours, thought I even saw a dog... The beachhouse across the channel [or road] has been doing some wild contortions on it's pilings for a while. With the eye just about to touch GI, it may be gone soon.

Allen was a scary sumbeotch coming in, then it kind of stalled when it got near SPI, then weakened enough as it came ashore to prevent what could have been another Ida.

That Grand Isle station at the USCG station on the north end had been dead since 09:06AM cdt.

That website is anomalous or distorted. The actual gubmint station shows quite different. Although it did show a dip at 1500gmt, which is fishy... https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8760922

Doesn't look right. Pilots Station East, S.W. Pass, LA - Station ID: 8760922 is quite a ways NE of Ida's eye. And the official readings there look different, no sharp drop spike. May be stations with similar names. Too bad the station ID number isn't shown there. But this overall station chart shows no station that has had eye contact yet: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html Pilots Station East, S.W. Pass, LA - Station ID: 8760922: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8760922

Linky for Pilots Station East, S.W. Pass, LA - Station ID: 8760922 https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8760922

This NOAA station is about 20 miles NW, behind Grand Isle. Galliano, South Lafourche Airport (KGAO) It's the closest working official WX station in Ida's path. The 3-day history page looks to report every 20 minutes. See how long it lasts. Grand Isle station is kaput pau. Hoping that the Coasties and everyone make it through this beast [a SiL is career USCG]. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=29.2328&lon=-89.9975#.YSuBMNfPz5o 3 day history https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGAO.html

Hurricane Ida has TS wind field nearly 450 miles in diameter, hurricane force wind field is nearly 150 miles in diameter. That is going to scour a lot of territory. Wind Radii Estimates (based on Knaff et al. 2016) (naut.mi.)R34R50R64 NE195.0 110.0 70.0 SE180.0 100.0 60.0 SW135.0 80.0 35.0 NW185.0 105.0 60.0 Parameters Used RMW derived from ADT TC current intensity from ADT = 129.6 (kts) TC forward speed from Forecast Interpolation = 10.3 (kts) TC heading from Forecast Interpolation = 317.2 (deg) Historical listing of wind radii values Timeline plots of Wind Radii : 34kt 50kt 64kt

NOAA3 Mission #2 into IDA is in the eye for the third time right now. AF305 Mission #14 into IDA will be back for seconds in about 30 minutes. Holymoly those HH crews are working their butts off with Ida.

Crap information. Doesn't even show, which has been in Ida for a couple of hours: NOAA3 Mission #2 into IDA Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm As of 11:08 UTC Aug 29, 2021: Aircraft Position: 28.02°N 90.00°W Bearing: 45° at 481 kt Altitude: 2441 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 63 kt at 312° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 993.9 mb

104800 2823N 08924W 6971 02589 9345 +191 +043 099012 014 025 001 00 104830 2824N 08922W 6964 02596 9346 +189 +046 114017 019 027 001 00 104900 2826N 08921W 6971 02584 9334 +198 +046 123025 029 035 000 00 104930 2827N 08919W 6966 02591 9323 +213 +048 130037 041 045 002 00 105000 2828N 08918W 6966 02601 9341 +201 +047 128055 063 060 000 03 105030 2829N 08917W 6965 02618 9393 +166 +041 131088 097 131 002 03 105100 2830N 08915W 6918 02717 9495 +110 +046 136131 146 140 010 03 105130 2831N 08914W 6999 02685 9575 +101 +035 137139 146 126 041 03 AF305 in Ida's eye surface extrapolated = 932.3mb at104930utc. Still lots of time to get lower faster... jfc

NOAA3 Mission #2 into IDA is about to enter Ida's eye again, this will be definitive. The mission was in there ~55 minutes ago, so we'll get a good rate comparison. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.6 / 931.7mb/129.6kt

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 29 AUG 2021 Time : 092020 UTC Lat : 28:11:24 N Lon : 89:11:59 W

No prob. The important numbers are missing from my post anyway? Thought I C&P'd it all.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 29 AUG 2021 Time : 092020 UTC Lat : 28:11:24 N Lon : 89:11:59 W This was 35 minutes ago. At previous avg rate of drop Ida could be ~928mb, 133kt/153mph. Unless Ida has bottomed out [based on the NOAA3 mission's few minutes in the eye], which I can't believe, unlike some recent commenters. Ida will be a Cat 5 shortly.

I just checked that and those wind barbs are mighty impressive. I think that Ida is "Th Big One". I've been watching it since it was an east Caribbean diffuse infant. The early progs had it going anywhere from Veracruz to Houston, with a concentration on Corpus Christi/Coastal Bend. Had me getting worried. Then it kept shifting east. Sorry NOLA.

Looking at AF 302 and 303's last reported positions I guess that I'll go outside in about 30 minutes and look for them overhead on approach to Kelly. And listen too, maybe 302 lost an engine...

Dangnabbit !

Ramping up 15mph in one hour is even more impressive...

Could you clarify that? AF303 is progressing back to KSKF. But AF302 was outbound and getting close to Ida, but the data stopped about 25 minutes ago, 0655utc [on Levi's feed]. So has AF302 been aborted?

AF302 reconn is about 5 degrees lon, 300nm/50min, from Ida's core; perhaps 200nm from the edge. [reading for sog = 0, update late].

I just saw it. Ida's intensifying faster than I can read refresh and type.

I STF hope that it wasn't AF303, which is in Ida's eye attm. KSKF, Kelly Field, AF302's takeoff point, is about 45 miles NW of me.

It flew pretty close over me a few minutes ago.