ORH_wxman
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Posts posted by ORH_wxman
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Man I wished I lived here for that
Yeah you probably woulda had 18-20" at 550 feet there while down the road a few hundred feet lower had a quarter of that, lol.
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If that happens again I'll be going on a banning spree.
The funny thing is I never realized how sharp the northern cutoff was on that storm until years later when I made my first map of that storm (much crappier than the one I posted)....I always assumed your area and most of the mountains got crushed.
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Only we didn't get downsloped..lol. That was one of Will's all time storms, meanwhile it ripped my heart out and lit it on fire. One of the worst feelings I've ever had.
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I know...the weenie snows on the 20th really made it fun imo. I did pretty well in that. Of course we changed to rain the next day after a few inches, but overall it was a fun 48 hrs.
The dendrites on the 20th were about as perfect as 2/7/03. Just less intense of course. But I think I had about 3" of fluff from probably under 0.10" of W.E. It had to be at least 30 to 1 ratios that next day. It makes sense though since 850s were like -12C to -14C and the snow growth was in the low levels there...perfect temp for dendrites.
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I would love a Dec '08 storm where we had on and off snow for about as long.
The first half of that double barrel event ended up being a sneaky >12" event for both BOS and ORH. That inverted trough stuff the next day put us over the top.
Not really your classic 12" snowstorm setup.
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'02-'03 stung until early Feb because the gradient was closer. Although they got porked in 12/25 and 1/3...when Brockton used to do well and Marshfield struggled...I got pretty mad. I remember when I found out I was moving there from Brockton, I was disappointed...lol. In my High School weenie mind...I did not want to move to an area the averaged less. Luckily, they don't do as bad as I was originally thinking at the time. I also was happy I was on the nw side of town.
I did take solace the BOS struggled as well during the first half of winter '02-'03. I hated when they did well and it was raining down on the s-shore.
Dec 2002 was awesome...I was home for most of it.
DEC-02 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011') LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 34 19 27 41 27 34 -7 T T 0 38 2 31 18 25 41 26 33 -8 0.03 1.0 1 40 3 26 9 18 40 26 33 -15 0.02 1.5 0 47 4 26 9 18 40 25 33 -15 0.00 0.0 0 47 5 24 18 21 39 25 32 -11 0.13 3.0 0 44 6 28 19 24 39 25 32 -8 0.03 1.5 0 41 7 32 12 22 39 24 32 -10 0.00 0.0 0 43 8 36 22 29 38 24 31 -2 T T 0 36 9 22 5 14 38 24 31 -17 0.00 0.0 0 51 10 33 16 25 38 23 31 -6 0.00 0.0 0 40 11 34 25 30 37 23 30 +0 0.29 5.5 0 35 12 37 31 34 37 23 30 +4 0.51 0.3 0 31 13 42 30 36 37 22 30 +6 0.16 0.0 0 29 14 40 33 37 36 22 29 +8 1.02 0.0 0 28 15 39 33 36 36 22 29 +7 T T 0 29 16 34 22 28 36 21 29 -1 0.16 3.5 0 37 17 25 15 20 36 21 28 -8 0.00 0.0 0 45 18 37 14 26 35 21 28 -2 0.00 0.0 0 39 19 41 24 33 35 20 28 +5 0.00 0.0 0 32 20 56 35 46 35 20 27 +19 1.26 0.0 0 19 21 39 31 35 35 20 27 +8 T T 0 30 22 43 30 37 34 20 27 +10 0.00 0.0 0 28 23 39 31 35 34 19 27 +8 T T 0 30 24 34 28 31 34 19 26 +5 T T 0 34 25 31 24 28 34 19 26 +2 0.49 10.5 0 37 26 31 21 26 33 19 26 +0 0.06 3.0 3 39 27 31 19 25 33 18 26 -1 0.00 0.0 0 40 28 30 20 25 33 18 26 -1 0.00 0.0 0 40 29 35 23 29 33 18 25 +4 0.00 0.0 0 36 30 29 20 25 33 18 25 +0 0.02 0.2 0 40 31 40 25 33 33 18 25 +8 0.06 0.5 0 32 TOTALS FOR ORH HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 56 TOTAL PRECIP 4.24 LOWEST TEMPERATURE 5 TOTAL SNOWFALL 30.5 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 28.1 NORMAL PRECIP 3.80 DEPARTURE FROM NORM -0.8 HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1137 NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 1119 -
That Dec 5 storm was basically the only one that did "well" in my area until early Feb. I did also get advisory snow on 12/2...but that was it. Even the Cape tortured me with those storms at the end of January.
Two pretty big gradient winters between interior and coast close together in that time...'00-'01 had just been two years earlier. The coast did make up a lot of ground in '03 at the end, but still definitely finished behind the interior. ORH had 117.3" in '02-'03 and BOS had 71.3"...71" is damn good, but you woulda expected probably 85 or more in BOS with that ORH total. But that epic February into early March certainly went a long ways on the coast...esp the south shore.
Not as bad '00-'01 though when it was 102.1" vs 45.9".
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Like I was saying yesterday...I needed that. I got tired watching the snowpack build up heading to Lowell every day, only to watch it disappear as I headed back south.
Yeah...snow totals through Feb 2nd in 2002-2003:
BOS: 18.7"
ORH: 69.3"
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There was actually a little weasel rain changing to snow event on Feb 2nd that never gets remember but it dropped like half a foot of snow over most of the northeast half of MA.
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~50" or so from the beginning of Feb through the beginning of March. Nice winter catch up for my area.
Yeah from, Feb 6 to March 6 I think BOS had like 47" of snow...the south shore had more as they jackpotted in all 3 storms...Feb 7, PDII, and Mar 6.
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I think I almost cried when I saw what happened near and nw of 128.
That was a Kevin dumbfounded storm too. A lot of sleet down in CT. We actually have a poster here (I think the guy who lives in Sutton, MA) said he was driving on 146 from RI into southern ORH county in the middle of that storm when it went from ripping pellets to heavy snow.
I was actually out in Ithaca for this storm doing a winter session class my senior year and I wasn't mad about it since Ithaca actually got clocked in that storm. We had like 16" of snow. It was a big storm...very large precip shield.
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Not to be confused with Scott's toaster-in-the-tub storm about a month before
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Scott and I were talking about the 2/6-7/03 storm yesterday. What an epic band that was....total forecast bust in the good direction
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Then I must be thinking of another one. Even Harvey had egg on his face....a huge bust......maybe it was 2/10.
Yeah 2/10 is the storm you are thinking of. No forecast outlet got out of that one without egg on their face.
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I know Harvey looks at the euro in more detail then perhaps some of them and he was the more bullish iirc, but still a little low. I mean February in the ORH hills....it's not an uncommon occurrence. But similar people were also going 12-24" back on 2/2 of this year as well. That was almost the complete opposite of 2/23-2/24. We talked about how there was no way people we get near 2'.
I think it shows that even mets can get caught up in the seasonal trend and that can sometimes influence our objectivity on looking at the individual storm at hand. Last year, every storm was putting down 1-2 feet leading up to that 2/2 event...so it was easy to get caught up in the models spitting out the qpf and assuming they were right or even conservative (like previous storms)....forgetting the golden rule that SW flow events are often overdone on model qpf and dryslot quickly.
Same with 2/10 vs 2/24....every storm seemed to be whiffing us to the south, but on 2/24, missing south wasn't the issue. It was only whether temps would be cold enough. But I guess pessimistic was the overall theme that got into everyone's minds.
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I wonder if the TV mets were mostly hugging the GFS in that February storm. I remember I posted the 950 temps on the euro for Will, and it seemed a lock for big wet snowbomb in the interior.
I can't imagine they were totally hugging it. I think most just got gun shy in a marginal setup. It was the GFS that had the biggest bust in the 2/10 storm so that would be even more ironic if they decided to hug the model that failed the worst in the 2/10 storm.
I am still surprised at how conservative TV went in that 2/23-24 storm though. I mean, I can understand being afraid to forecast 8-14", but to be forecasting 1-3 or 2-4" seemed woefully conservative.
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I thought it was the storm that NYC ended up being buried by but we got rain as did Caribou......
Oh ok, well we were never under a blizzard watch or warning for that one. That was rain once we got to 48 hours before. I remember posting that the 2/23-24 elevation snow bomb would be bitter sweet because I knew a rainstorm was coming right after it.
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That was a good storm and call by you...although the rain made it not so fun..How was your call for 2/27/10?
2/27/10 was impossible to forecast that little band of 8-10" in N ORH county. I did forecast advisory amounts in that which was better than some other forecasts, but that mesoscale band (almost looked convective) was impossible to forecast.
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I joust remember warning everyone of the elephant in the room. We were under a blizzard warning while our temperature was near 50 and CAR was something like 38. Most tried to drown me out but I was correct. If I ( serious snow weenie) downplay snow, take it seriously
Which storm? 2/10/10?
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you and me both. I still can't get over that one. Waking up to a very light rain/snow mix and a couple of peeks of sun was a real treat after basically closing down the state 12 hours earlier.
I don't think there is a worse feeling than seeing a forecast of big snow during a time where you know that forecast will shut down rush hour bust on the low side as to being insignificant. What a terrible feeling that 2/10/10 bust was. I know you felt it worse than I did probably since you actually were talking to the governor.
But that is also what I loved about the 2./23-24/10 storm....both of us (you were on that forecast desk right before that storm) got right back on the horse and predicted big snow in the hills of ORH county and western MA while the TV guys were ridiculously gun shy. We got redemption pretty quickly because I think we were the best at not letting the last failure affect our judgement. The TV guys got egg on their face again that storm while we didn't. BOX had a very solid forecast for that storm while TV had a terrible one. And I went balls to the wall too. Again, it was funny, ironically the Union, CT guy was the one giving me the most sh*t before the storm on my forecast even though I was lower down there with 5-9". The N ORH county guys were mostly "WTF? ok, if you say so, we'll get the plow calivary ready." But they all still kind of asked me what I was smoking in one way or the other...and this is coming right off that horrific 2/10/10 bust so my credibility was diminished.
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Ironically, I actually got the most sh*t from the Union, CT guy in the Feb 23-24, 2010 even though I forecasted less down there. I was 5-9" there but the TV people were so low in N CT...they were mostly 1-3" and maybe some 2-4" forecasts. Union got 6.5" out of that so the 5-9 worked out. But they were actually worried about not plowing in that region.
I got the most kudos though from the northern towns after the event where 17" fell when 3-6" was predicted by TV. It was a nice feeling after I got effing railed during the Feb 10, 2010 event. Worst forecast I've ever seen from both models and actual forecast outlets including me for a 6-12 hour forecast.
New England snowstorm memories.
in New England
Posted
NOUS41 KBOX 251215
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-260010-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
STATEMENT FOR THE STORM THAT ENDED WEDNESDAY EVENING. APPRECIATION IS
EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON
MASSACHUSETTS
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
ROWE 25.0 310 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
ASHFIELD 23.6 644 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
HEATH 22.0 400 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
SHELBURNE 22.0 721 PM 2/24 PUBLIC
CONWAY 18.0 228 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
GREENFIELD 14.0 1050 AM 2/24 SPOTTER EL. 1000FT
SHELBURNE 13.8 502 AM 2/24 PUBLIC
MONTAGUE 10.0 1103 AM 2/24 PUBLIC
EAST CHARLEMONT 8.5 912 AM 2/24 SPOTTER
WHATELY 6.5 213 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
...HAMPDEN COUNTY...
CHESTER 19.5 1223 PM 2/24 HAM RADIO
BLANDFORD 19.0 730 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
SOUTHWICK 12.0 1043 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
WESTFIELD 7.0 730 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
HOLYOKE 6.0 730 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
SUFFIELD CORNER 5.0 730 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
CHICOPEE 3.8 1000 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
AGAWAM 3.0 730 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
LONGMEADOW 3.0 114 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
SPRINGFIELD 3.0 730 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
HAMPDEN 2.0 730 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
MONSON 2.0 114 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
CHESTERFIELD 24.0 730 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
PLAINFIELD 21.5 300 PM 2/24 SPOTTER
GOSHEN 18.0 827 AM 2/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MIDDLEFIELD 18.0 1209 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
WEST CHESTERFIELD 16.0 659 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
WORTHINGTON 13.3 704 AM 2/24 NWS COOP
WESTHAMPTON 13.0 710 AM 2/24 SPOTTER EL. 800FT
SOUTH HADLEY 6.0 953 AM 2/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BELCHERTOWN 2.2 740 AM 2/24 PUBLIC
AMHERST 2.0 700 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
WARE 2.0 730 PM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
GRANBY 0.8 430 AM 2/24 EMERGENCY MANAGER
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
TOWNSEND 13.5 1005 AM 2/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
PEPPERELL 7.0 900 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
GROTON 4.5 930 AM 2/24 SPOTTER
SHIRLEY 4.5 549 AM 2/24 SPOTTER
HUDSON 4.1 1030 AM 2/24 SPOTTER
GROTON 3.5 642 AM 2/24 SPOTTER
AYER 3.2 913 AM 2/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MAYNARD 2.7 623 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
...WORCESTER COUNTY...
ASHBURNHAM 16.8 230 PM 2/24 NWS COOP
GARDNER 16.0 231 PM 2/24 SPOTTER EL 1000 FT
FITCHBURG 15.0 852 AM 2/24 SPOTTER EL 90 FT
PRINCETON 14.5 949 AM 2/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER
TEMPLETON 13.0 835 AM 2/24 HAM RADIO EL. 970FT
HUBBARDSTON 12.0 1024 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
STERLING 12.0 937 AM 2/24 HAM RADIO EL. 670 FT
WESTMINSTER 12.0 929 AM 2/24 HAM RADIO EL. 1080FT
WINCHENDON 12.0 955 AM 2/24 AMATEUR RADIO
PHILLIPSTON 11.0 718 AM 2/24 SPOTTER
WORCESTER 10.7 100 PM 2/24 ORH AIRPORT
BOYLSTON 9.4 912 AM 2/24 SKYWARN SPOTTER