ORH_wxman

Dec 2002 was awesome...I was home for most of it. DEC-02 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011') LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ACTUAL NORMAL HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD 1 34 19 27 41 27 34 -7 T T 0 38 2 31 18 25 41 26 33 -8 0.03 1.0 1 40 3 26 9 18 40 26 33 -15 0.02 1.5 0 47 4 26 9 18 40 25 33 -15 0.00 0.0 0 47 5 24 18 21 39 25 32 -11 0.13 3.0 0 44 6 28 19 24 39 25 32 -8 0.03 1.5 0 41 7 32 12 22 39 24 32 -10 0.00 0.0 0 43 8 36 22 29 38 24 31 -2 T T 0 36 9 22 5 14 38 24 31 -17 0.00 0.0 0 51 10 33 16 25 38 23 31 -6 0.00 0.0 0 40 11 34 25 30 37 23 30 +0 0.29 5.5 0 35 12 37 31 34 37 23 30 +4 0.51 0.3 0 31 13 42 30 36 37 22 30 +6 0.16 0.0 0 29 14 40 33 37 36 22 29 +8 1.02 0.0 0 28 15 39 33 36 36 22 29 +7 T T 0 29 16 34 22 28 36 21 29 -1 0.16 3.5 0 37 17 25 15 20 36 21 28 -8 0.00 0.0 0 45 18 37 14 26 35 21 28 -2 0.00 0.0 0 39 19 41 24 33 35 20 28 +5 0.00 0.0 0 32 20 56 35 46 35 20 27 +19 1.26 0.0 0 19 21 39 31 35 35 20 27 +8 T T 0 30 22 43 30 37 34 20 27 +10 0.00 0.0 0 28 23 39 31 35 34 19 27 +8 T T 0 30 24 34 28 31 34 19 26 +5 T T 0 34 25 31 24 28 34 19 26 +2 0.49 10.5 0 37 26 31 21 26 33 19 26 +0 0.06 3.0 3 39 27 31 19 25 33 18 26 -1 0.00 0.0 0 40 28 30 20 25 33 18 26 -1 0.00 0.0 0 40 29 35 23 29 33 18 25 +4 0.00 0.0 0 36 30 29 20 25 33 18 25 +0 0.02 0.2 0 40 31 40 25 33 33 18 25 +8 0.06 0.5 0 32 TOTALS FOR ORH HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 56 TOTAL PRECIP 4.24 LOWEST TEMPERATURE 5 TOTAL SNOWFALL 30.5 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 28.1 NORMAL PRECIP 3.80 DEPARTURE FROM NORM -0.8 HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1137 NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 1119

Two pretty big gradient winters between interior and coast close together in that time...'00-'01 had just been two years earlier. The coast did make up a lot of ground in '03 at the end, but still definitely finished behind the interior. ORH had 117.3" in '02-'03 and BOS had 71.3"...71" is damn good, but you woulda expected probably 85 or more in BOS with that ORH total. But that epic February into early March certainly went a long ways on the coast...esp the south shore. Not as bad '00-'01 though when it was 102.1" vs 45.9".

Yeah...snow totals through Feb 2nd in 2002-2003: BOS: 18.7" ORH: 69.3"

There was actually a little weasel rain changing to snow event on Feb 2nd that never gets remember but it dropped like half a foot of snow over most of the northeast half of MA.

Yeah from, Feb 6 to March 6 I think BOS had like 47" of snow...the south shore had more as they jackpotted in all 3 storms...Feb 7, PDII, and Mar 6.

That was a Kevin dumbfounded storm too. A lot of sleet down in CT. We actually have a poster here (I think the guy who lives in Sutton, MA) said he was driving on 146 from RI into southern ORH county in the middle of that storm when it went from ripping pellets to heavy snow. I was actually out in Ithaca for this storm doing a winter session class my senior year and I wasn't mad about it since Ithaca actually got clocked in that storm. We had like 16" of snow. It was a big storm...very large precip shield.

Not to be confused with Scott's toaster-in-the-tub storm about a month before

Scott and I were talking about the 2/6-7/03 storm yesterday. What an epic band that was....total forecast bust in the good direction

Yeah 2/10 is the storm you are thinking of. No forecast outlet got out of that one without egg on their face.

I think it shows that even mets can get caught up in the seasonal trend and that can sometimes influence our objectivity on looking at the individual storm at hand. Last year, every storm was putting down 1-2 feet leading up to that 2/2 event...so it was easy to get caught up in the models spitting out the qpf and assuming they were right or even conservative (like previous storms)....forgetting the golden rule that SW flow events are often overdone on model qpf and dryslot quickly. Same with 2/10 vs 2/24....every storm seemed to be whiffing us to the south, but on 2/24, missing south wasn't the issue. It was only whether temps would be cold enough. But I guess pessimistic was the overall theme that got into everyone's minds.

I can't imagine they were totally hugging it. I think most just got gun shy in a marginal setup. It was the GFS that had the biggest bust in the 2/10 storm so that would be even more ironic if they decided to hug the model that failed the worst in the 2/10 storm. I am still surprised at how conservative TV went in that 2/23-24 storm though. I mean, I can understand being afraid to forecast 8-14", but to be forecasting 1-3 or 2-4" seemed woefully conservative.

Oh ok, well we were never under a blizzard watch or warning for that one. That was rain once we got to 48 hours before. I remember posting that the 2/23-24 elevation snow bomb would be bitter sweet because I knew a rainstorm was coming right after it.

2/27/10 was impossible to forecast that little band of 8-10" in N ORH county. I did forecast advisory amounts in that which was better than some other forecasts, but that mesoscale band (almost looked convective) was impossible to forecast.

Which storm? 2/10/10?

I don't think there is a worse feeling than seeing a forecast of big snow during a time where you know that forecast will shut down rush hour bust on the low side as to being insignificant. What a terrible feeling that 2/10/10 bust was. I know you felt it worse than I did probably since you actually were talking to the governor. But that is also what I loved about the 2./23-24/10 storm....both of us (you were on that forecast desk right before that storm) got right back on the horse and predicted big snow in the hills of ORH county and western MA while the TV guys were ridiculously gun shy. We got redemption pretty quickly because I think we were the best at not letting the last failure affect our judgement. The TV guys got egg on their face again that storm while we didn't. BOX had a very solid forecast for that storm while TV had a terrible one. And I went balls to the wall too. Again, it was funny, ironically the Union, CT guy was the one giving me the most sh*t before the storm on my forecast even though I was lower down there with 5-9". The N ORH county guys were mostly "WTF? ok, if you say so, we'll get the plow calivary ready." But they all still kind of asked me what I was smoking in one way or the other...and this is coming right off that horrific 2/10/10 bust so my credibility was diminished.

Ironically, I actually got the most sh*t from the Union, CT guy in the Feb 23-24, 2010 even though I forecasted less down there. I was 5-9" there but the TV people were so low in N CT...they were mostly 1-3" and maybe some 2-4" forecasts. Union got 6.5" out of that so the 5-9 worked out. But they were actually worried about not plowing in that region. I got the most kudos though from the northern towns after the event where 17" fell when 3-6" was predicted by TV. It was a nice feeling after I got effing railed during the Feb 10, 2010 event. Worst forecast I've ever seen from both models and actual forecast outlets including me for a 6-12 hour forecast.

I dunno why I said Norwood...I meant Needham, lol.

12/9/05 is still probably my best forecast only because I had a boss back then....where he questioned my forecast and a lot of people were counting on that forecast. I went 6-10 with 12"+ lollis and it ended up being conservative. I had upped it from 4-7". My 2nd best forecast is def Feb 23-24, 2010 with the TV guys forecasting about 25% of what I was and busted TOO LOW. 8-13" was too low for ORH and northern towns where Princeton got 17.5". ORH was ok with around 11" but all the northern towns were over 13". TV was forecasting 2-4 or 3-6 with one station going 5-10" but it was constricted to extreme N ORH county near Winchendon, Ashburnham, and Gardner.

I briefly lived near the radio towers in Newton, MA for about 3 months (i think the towers are officially in Norwood and owned by channel 5 WCVB) but I always will remember that storm as the "Radio tower storm" in my head because you told me how close you were to there and how there was almost non-stop thunder snow for a 30 minute period which matches the obs that were in the eastern threads back in their early days. But I know you love to rub those storms in to me as a good prescription to the Feb 23-24, 2010 storm where you were dying to get some decent snow. Even on a lesser extent, the Feb 22-23, 2007 screwjob you got in that norlun. You get me back with 12/9/05 and especially 2/5/01.

Ekster only loves that storm because he was in Springfield, MA (or near them) and I was boned in ITH. If we were both at our respective hometowns at the time, he wouldn't even mention it. But he also got lucky too being in Norwood, MA near the Newton/Wellesley border in 12/9/05...about the best spot possible to see 5 inches per hour for like 90-120 minutes along with constant thunder snow for that time too. Talk about a horseshoe up yer azz for visiting SNE on storm dates.

I agree that was sick. ORH went from nothing to +SN in one hour and then barely had any -SN to end. They had 12 consecutive hours of +SN.

Hey I like that storm...I was just pissed at being in Ithaca for it, lol. But ORH got 18.5" out of it...what a total tease that was in ITH though. We were forecasted to get 4-8" by BGM that day and we got 0.5" in the form of about 2 mi vis SN- at 31F for about 4 hours...it wasn't cold. BGM upgraded Broome county (their own county in BGM) to a WSW partway through it and they finished with like 3"...it was the worst upgrade I ever saw in the middle of an event. lol.

I'm not sure how much upslope was in that storm...IIRC the winds were pretty light, but there might have been a little bit of upslope. Most the differences in accumulation were probably due to elevation because the boundary layer was so marginal. There was also a massive cutoff in qpf just N of ORH. I remember driving up through Holden and by the time I got just 5-7 miles north, the snowfall was like half of what I had.

Yeah that one was pretty funny. It was right after he said it would trend into a huge hit there on that sick 18z NAM run a couple days before.

What a tease 2009-2010 was...it ended near average, but it could have been so much better. Total screw job in the configuration of the blocking. Not predictable more then 2 days out.