ORH_wxman

Well it was on guidance the middle d last week though not to the extent that we see now. Then it disappeared for a few runs and we thought that was it but then the models started catching onto that 2nd shortwave catching up to the first and phasing. Carl Lewis chasing the fat kid. But yeah it is fairly rare to see such a bust inside 100 hours on a storm of this magnitude.

Yeah jackpot fetishes are in full swing this morning. It's going to be a huge storm even outside the banding jackpots. 3 days ago this was a whiff. Helps keep things in perspective.

Yeah it's not perfect by any means. You obviously don't want to take it by itself...but combined with some other guidance it can be useful.

MOS has a ""memory"...it will try and match similar setups from the past. That's where it can be more useful than actual raw guidance sometimes. One reason the FWC guidance was pretty good...much better than NGM model itself.

Yeah I don't think this will beat Feb 2013 for the widespread 24"+ totals. This feels a bit more like January 2011...maybe slightly better.

He's on the eastern side of it on that map...probably in between where the first "T" and "E" is on "Massachusetts"

OES should start breaking out in the next few hours. You can alsready sort of it starting on radar, but probably not reaching the ground yet.

Jerry's elephant is nowhere to be found in this one...some pretty real cold:

Yeah I'd feel good for a huge hit from central LI eastward, but that NYC region is a tough call. I wonder if we see the other guidance tick west tomorrow morning toward the Euro but also a small tick east by the Euro? That 70/30 compromise that often happens when the Euro is an outlier. The Euro outlier this close in has me believing that it is mostly correct...it's a damned good model and rarely screws up this close in. That said, "mostly right" still means a level of correction could happen...25 miles is a big deal down there right now.

I still think it will be hard to get that wide of a 24"+ area depicted on the Euro...but we will see how things look in the morning. It does stall in a great spot.

Yeah most of SNE is gonna get crushed one way or the other...as messenger said, the fringes are where these small wobbles matter the most. Euro mixes the Cape (at least central and outer cape) while most of the other 00z guidance does not....and of course NYC gets 20"+ on the Euro while other guidance gives them close to 10". For most of SNE, we are not talking much except for model noise.

Yeah it will prob be mostly 12-14 to 1 type stuff over most of the region where the snow stays powdery.

Yeah just E of NYC...LI up into HVN/BDR looks the best to me on the Euro based on where it rotted that band, It;s got another jack in SE MA where the snow lasts until Wed morning.

All of SNE is over 1.5" on the Euro with 2" for a lot of CT/SE MA and RI. BOS about 2" of qpf.

Yeah i would not be surprised if the Euro ticked east again tomorrow. It's probably mostly right, but usually you'll see a little bit of compromise even when it's doing well.

I think it is a bit west of the RGEM but not too far off

Not really, it's still a really good run for NYC...just not quite as good as 12z but that was kind of an obscene run for them.

Euro is still west of most guidance...but it definitely ticked east a bit overall.

Total crush job...gets captured south of MVY/ACK....that is about the sweet spot for much of SNE.

Euro is definitely making a wider turn at 30 hours.

Euro won't really start going for another 5-6 minutes.

Yeah, everyone always remembers the high amounts. I once forecasted 6-12" for a storm for a client back in the Vday 2007 storm. They got 6.5-7" with plenty of sleet (which was also forecasted) and then asked me why the forecast busted saying "I thought we were getting a foot"...I wanted to rip my eyes out. I usualy prefer a smaller range, but that storm was difficult to forecast with the sleet.

Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too.

The Cape is definitely going to see some ridiculous conditions. The paste they get for a good chunk of the storm combined with the wind is gonna cause some power issues down there probably....even though their trees are pretty hardy.

Ukie was fine for most...a little worrisome for western folks, but you know the deal with the western fringe of the heavy QPF in these types of systems