ORH_wxman

It definitely chases the convection once it gets going...it may have started off a tick east, but it gets exacerbated as we go into the run. You can actually see a couple little bullseye of vorticity south of the benchmark by 18 hours. Regardless, the lack of a compact vortmax is definitely an issue for a really wrapped up solution.

This is sort of a chicken/egg argument and both can feed on eachother...if the vortmax is stronger, it will help force the flow to buckle and you'll see this tugged back west...on the flip side, if the flow was already a bit more buckled, you'll see the vortmax curl up to the north easier....even if it's weaker. The problem is we are dealing with a relatively weak vortmax right now...it's not this intense ball of vorticity which would make this a really big storm. So smallish features like convection can wreak havoc on the eventual progression of the whole thing. The pros: The shortwave is already negatively tilted pretty good...so that is going to help a lot. It's why even on these really ugly strung out solutions, we're still somehow getting advisory snow from ASH to ORH and SE and warning snows over SE MA. Cons: Vortmax is weak and the shortwave is relatively "shallow"....meaning it is somewhat disconnected from the main shortwave over the western lakes. This will give a bit of tendency to try and slide the low east....but it can also work in our favor if we deform where that happens.

Yeah I think it's going to be almost impossible for this storm to be a total disaster (as in sub-advisory at this point) for at least the southeast half of SNE....but obviously the question is do we go more the 4-8" route or are we discussing 10-15"+?

Yeah it's running northeast with the convective blob....suspicious, but it doesn't mean its wrong. Convective interference can be real...it's just that often it's an illusion on model guidance.

Yeah looks worse than 06z...sliding further east.

I can't see QPF, but the 06z EPS actually looks better than the OP run. Low looks a little healthier and isobars bulging more west.

WSI. This is 30 hours...you can see how it's kind of sliding southeast a bit and not curling up into the shortwave very well. This prevents a huge solution.

It is still shooting that southeast vortmax ENE as this gains latitude...this run was once again better with downstream ridging but it's having trouble really wrapping/curling that vortmax in toward the shortwave. But if we get another 2 or 3 incremental shifts like that we'll be in business for a big event closer to some of the other guidance. I'm not expecting something like RGEM/hi res RGEM lol.

Definitely a little better than 00z but not by a lot. Small shift...nothing like that crazy 18z solution.

06z euro is coming back some through 24h. Should be better than 00z.

I mean, I don't know if that's the reason. I'm just speculating so keep that in mind...I'm just not sure how there's not at least a 50% chance of 6+ in SE MA/RI at this point. I get that they didn't see the 06z suite yet which came in pretty robust (pending euro in a few minutes). But even most of the cruddy solutions were still decent in SE MA at 00z. Anyway, doesn't really change anything in terms of what the storm actually does...hopefully Euro comes back a little in a few min.

I'm really surprised there is no watch in SE MA and RI. I would think 50% confidence in 6+ there is warranted. But I guess this came on so fast that it's leaving everyone a little snakebit and that's been the background tenor of the winter.

Seems like this is going to be an issue on guidance....we're seeing some pretty decent swings for solutions inside of 36 hours.

Euro has a stronger vortmax at 18 hours, but then it is a lot weaker by the time we get to 30-36 hours...that's the key on this run because the heights out ahead of it during those times is actually higher than the 18z run.

Yeah you can really see it at 42 hours...18z was like 995mb and this run is about 1003 or 1004.

Euro looks slightly toned down from 18z....the heights are actually higher out ahead of it, but the vortmax is weaker so the storm isn't bombing as quickly. Should still be a good solution though.

I know.... I was ribbing him on purpose. Classic DIT move.

Wow. Ray is forecasting 2 feet. Spread the word.

Uncle staggering into the house blasted...succumbed to the temptation of tequila well shots for $2 a piece:

Ukie 500/sfc....gonna have to wait a bit longer for the QPF queen maps. But I don't really think you need them....this is a big solution for eastern areas at minimum....and prob back into central SNE as well.

Wow, hi res RGEM looking nothing like the regular one this time.

He;s gonna come back smashed I think....based on the garbage (now somewhat corrupted) plymouth state maps we only get to 36 hours.....it looks zonked at 700mb.

Yeah it tries to get a kick east at the last second....but I wouldn't worry about that yet. You actually may end up on a great deform spot if it works out well, so the kick east could help if it's timed right.

Ok that makes a more sense...00z GFS was slightly warmer at the sfc because it was stronger/closer to coast, but I don't think it would be enough to make a huge difference in the clown maps. Yeah Monday's storm nearly whiffed us on this run.

That could be one of the big worries in this one...it could be somewhat like March 7-8 over the interior last year which was a disaster....only this time, it looks like the danger zone is closer to the coast.