ORH_wxman

Def quite a good change on the 18z eps

Fwiw, the energy responsible for the Sunday system is over Siberia and crosses over north of AK tomorrow night and finally into Canada by Thursday during the day. So we could still see some decent changes.

Yeah SE Canada does make a difference too. Ridge axis is a little west on that 18z run too…so even though it isn’t taller, it’s better oriented.

That’s a pretty decent sized event for recent standards over SE areas. But I think decent banding would prob get back into interior too.

That’s CAD-city on that setup.

Dang we lost our 70F Xmas day

Both AI models have been relatively bullish on the Sunday threat.

18z GFS still a whiff on Sunday. Icon was pretty decent though. Always good to have that model on your side.

Thankfully basically zero similarities between those two years at the moment. We’ve had a different Pacific regime compared to recent years so far…that very strong WPO block is not something that’s been there. In recent years, we’ve seen a generally strong positive WPO which will tend to mute the cold…the negative phase has the opposite effect which is probably why our cold has been overperforming in the medium range.

When you have summer heat ridge heights near the winter solstice, I'm guessing it's hard to wash that out even with other ensemble members.

Even the Euro aloft might argue for more QPF being wrung out a bit further inland...not an uncommon model bias for all guidance in keeping thew QPF too close to the low-level thermal gradient. It's why I think that run was pretty good for SE MA despite most QPF being centered over Cape/Islands. But yeah, that could get juicy pretty quickly if you displaced the PV lobe even 75-100 miles west.

This will be verification

Actually a nice look for SE MA.

Might be able to go 70F if we pump that ridge enough