ORH_wxman

We’re down to about 10-11” here but the south facing sloped areas are now largely exposed. This pack had some meat in it. This has been a real furnace the last few days that it has taken to get to this point.

Yeah the second storm had a very tight snow gradient near 495. We had about 16” but once you went like 5-10 miles inside 495 it was mostly rain.

Cold, cutter, cold, cutter pattern...you can see how easily it would have been to get a good one in there. Still think we'll prob get at least another interior threat before the month is out. That PV doesn't really go anywhere...tries to retreat slightly but then drifts back south on ensembles.

I was spoiled in ORH for that 12 month period....had back to back nor' easters Dec 6-7, 1996 totaling 26", then 33.0" in the April .97 storm and then 18" in the Dec '97 positive bust. That was the end of the luck for a while though....brutal next 3 years until 2000-2001

A Super Nino would almost certainly suck....but I'll roll the dice any day with a mod/strong Nino as long as it's not east based.

Probably a few chances but so far nothing has gotten inside 7 days really.

I remember seeing the 40-50 dbz echoes on the doorstep and thinking it was definitely sleet. Then we got monster hooked-dendrite aggies pounding for a couple hours. We got 6” per hour in ORH at the peak. Not quite the 8” per hour stuff just northeast of us but pretty insane regardless.

I’m locking in 3/24 on euro.

Most of these systems were able to be found in PNS data if they were recent. For stuff prior to 1997 (which is when PNS data cutoff on the old BOX page), I'd generally use 2 day totals if I wasn't sure, but I did remember most of the late 80s to mid 1990s events so I'd know if they were separate ones (like December 6-7, 1996 for example). Most of the time, your numbers won't be affected if you solely used 2 day totals....you might get a rare instance like the Dec '96 example....but most of the time your bin won't change if it's adding a rogue few tenths from a snow shower...the only way it would matter is if it made a 5.8" storm into like a 6.1" or something like that....but even then, you aren't really going to be that far off the mark if you accidentally included a 5.8" event in the 6-11.9 bin. Most long duration events I already knew about too....late Feb 1969, Nov 10-12, 1987, Dec 20-22, 1975, etc.

I found ORH from our discussion above...I don't have BOS or BDL at my fingertips but I know it's somewhere. They follow the same general pattern but just lower frequencies. Frequency = # of events per winter

LOL....its like seeing the NAM before a SWFE hammering H75 with 2C.....you know you're screwed when it shows BDF/CAD too

First time seeing the firepit this evening since mid January.

So many skeptics on that event leading into it. Models didn’t handle it well at all but the underlying theme was dumping a lot of QPF. A lot of tv stations had like 2-4” or 3-6” for interior elevated areas and I couldn’t understand it. I was going like 8-14” and I was wau too light.

They are up a ton since those were published. I have a spreadsheet I did that goes I think through 2018 or 2019. I’ll post the frequencies when I’m back on my work laptop. I think I did them for BOS and BDL too. I think ORH averaged roughly one 12”+ per winter in the last 30 years or so. That basically doubles the previous frequency. To be fair, that 1992 cutoff is brutal in the old averages….youre including the 1980s and those early 1990s years in there without the benefit of having those big 1990s years in there.

Epic.