baltosquid

Setting expectations for 4, hoping the storm scoots along with a minimal tuck and some colder air to get me to that yellow on the NWS maps and 8 inches. Would love to eek out a better result than March 2018 if possible. Fingers crossed. Let's see what 18z has to offer in a few hours! As always, big thanks to all the more knowledgeable posters helping us weenies along.

Temps definitely more favorable in Baltimore. Just shift the storm a dozen miles SE, and/or have a similar temperature improvement in the next update, please. Won't take much to make me feel a lot more confident in at least getting the grass covered. Wonder what the EPS will do in terms of clustering the lows on the members for 12z. Either way, let's see if 18z and 00z will help us out and then dive into meso mode.

UKMET snowfall map is not encouraging. Maybe 1-3 inches for I95, but of course lots of that would be washed away in the rain.

If this ends up continuing trending poorly, I'd have to hand it to the GFS-Para (GFSv16), it's been saying rain/sleet for I95 for days. Edit: Should mention that it handled things quite poorly in other ways

Interestingly, the 06z EPS seems to be a bit more uncertain than the 00z. Bit more strung out in terms of member lows from NW to SE at hour 72. Only potential positive I can see to hang onto. May still have time and "room" amongst that uncertainty in the ensemble for a slight shift in that rain/snow line, but the densest clusters and continuing trend are disappointing.

12km, so not as useful as the incoming 3km, but the run was better. Low is still too far NW but not running up the bay like in 06z. Snow totals still bad. Looks like mostly sleet in the totals on tropical tidbits. But a tick in the right direction, even for a less useful model is nice.

Yeah also looks maybe a bit cooler at 850 but a tad warmer at the surface. If it makes any noticeable SE tick I'll be feeling much better though, really just want to see the path. Anything to suggest the Euro and CMC will cave to the GFS...

00z hugs Delmarva far tighter than 18z. Ensembles maybe hinted at his before with a lot of members clustered around there while the operational took a straighter path. I'm kind of concerned that the euro ensembles generally have the tightest cluster around that tucking path while the out-to-sea members are more scattered, even if there are more of those ones overall. But even with this run, I get 6 to 8 or so inches on the snow depth map which is probably the most since March 2018 for me. Anyone more knowledgeable got an explanation of the tucking behavior and what would stop it? Silver linings?

CMC is strange, very strong but one of the most pronounced snow-rain cutoffs yet. It really wants to tuck the storm into Ocean City/Delaware. I'm skeptical of that. Very different track to the GFS. Give me the GFS track and CMC rates, please!

Track is better but the precipitation rates aren't there this time. Not too worried about that run. Track worried me more earlier personally, no deterioration on that for 00z, perhaps improvements. Hopefully we can get the rates back.

EPS mean seems a bit of a weaker storm and a tick south, stronger 50/50 and slightly stronger high pressure behind it. Probably good I think.

Seems like the Euro ensembles look a bit warmer at 850 than the operational, and the inverse is true for the GFS. Which means I'll still be hanging on each and every run throughout the day. Just gotta hope the ticks are in the right direction.

EPS a bit worse but it’s also easy to see how battered we’ve been for a while now We’ve got the CMC, GFS and Euro Ops with some pretty great results for the usual suspects and the I95 corridor; the UKMET is less bullish but still a good result for a lot of us in Dec. Yet you’d think from the discussion on the EPS we’re set up for a soul crushing bust even though it still gives some of us more snow than all last year lol. One run at a time, best models for us in a long long time!