Torch Tiger

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We’d all be worried if the Ukie was jackpotting us at this range. 

Ha I guess

Ukie is very tucked, sucks for most of SNE

Was in Norwell/Scituate today, huge ponds of standing water and sump pumps bumpin'.  What a storm!  Hopefully next one is the proverbial straw!

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kind of glad many think this way or we would be the new CT.

Congrats for the epic Spring snows (and a bit of rain). Many are jealous

Heck yeah! A big "hugger/transfer" type deal, at least on the gfs. As-is, take.

QPF...it's like anti-stein vaccine...a drug, I'm already fixing for more

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is also going to hit areas in SNE. Impressive blocking will shunt this south 

 

Generally, there are many fantasy modeling heavy-hitters outside of D3-4? that end up being sputtering rain/globs that amount to nothing. Especially below 1 or even 1.5k later April

25 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Thanks kev

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He made it old hat, was already around lol

This is a great pattern.  Hopefully some TORRENTIAL rains coming late month/May with increased pwats

Raines to Maines

let's flood!

he on the lookout

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowy Friday morning shaping up hills 

sweet!

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

S***'s getting weird. Snow storms, flood warnings and now black squirrels.

 

I saw one of those last week. Lol

Nice day, rocketing through the 50's with even a little, dare I say, dew

5 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Starts at hr180 and goes through hr216...

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Can always adjust up

18z gfs would be amazing!  Let's do that!!

Onto Napril

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I'm looking for rain this time, Didn't need the snow/sleet this past weekend.

I hope you get 6" melted QPF no matter type

18z gfs seems like a reasonable middle-ground 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drying out Friday . At least mention rain and heavy snow 

you mean P/C forecast?

Was in RI today, Scituate/Smithfield was a RIVER coming down from those hills. Sides of roads washed out.  Hopefully we can maximize the QPF on this next event to renew the excitement!

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX has no mention of anything Friday. Just have a sunny, dry day after rain Wed night / Thursday. Almost like they just tossed everything except op Euro . Not even a precip or rain mention lol 

The focus period for the long term forecast will be Wednesday night
through Thursday night (at least). This 24-36 hour period has the
potential to deliver another round of 2-3 inches of rain to the
region which (I`m sure we don`t need to remind you) only recently
received this much rain and continues to see some rivers in flood
stage. The most important thing to determining where/if we deal with
exacerbated flooding will be the ultimate track of the storm and the
axis of heaviest rainfall. It is too soon to have a high degree of
confidence on where this axis sets up, but the most recent ECMWF
global guidance has come west, in line with the GFS/Canadian
guidance showing those large rainfall amounts over interior southern
New England rather than further east/offshore. Of course, we don`t
want to focus on deterministic model runs, but that agreement isn`t
what you would want to see if you`re hoping for a miss offshore. At
this time frame we focus on ensembles, two of which (the GEFS and
EPS) are indicating a 20-40% and 10-30% chance of AOA 2 inches of
rain respectively. Not huge numbers, but 3 days out certainly
indicative of potential for concern given how saturated the
ground is already. The atmospheric moisture and dynamics are
there, with a 1.25" PWAT plume directly from the Gulf of Mexico
and large scale ascent from favorable placement beneath a 150 kt
upper jet, but just how/if the northern and southern streams
interact is unknown at this time. Additionally, probabilistic
hydrographs from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate renewed flooding
for RI rivers. This system will also bring a period of gusty
winds as it passes late week.