Sernest14

Chalk it up as a win in Ashland- beat the Friday snow

Seems slightly more north and more precip coming in. Euro jumped up to 3”, nam and hrrr both give the Richmond area 3-4

9” drifts? Looked about 3” or so on the last page

Now all we need is the low to hug the coast for a while and stall

It’s already depicting that on the radar loops, just need to allow the low to keep working its way up

per 12z nam, we were only at .01-05” through 1 pm Hrrr .01-.05” through 2pm As the low creeps up it’s going to fill in more and also push the better returns into our area which is what almost all the models show as well

its building back in per radar. West is going to continue to show dry due to mountains in western Carolina but will build back in as it crosses into va

Radar depiction down in the south at the gulf looks much more amplified (assuming a stronger low). Hopefully can power through more than what the models show to give us a little shift nw. also looked a couple hours early and is heavier in western/central tn

Assuming they are running with 15:1. Most qpf is around .4-.5 which puts it in the range then the trickle nw that tends to happen as well

Such a lazy forecast- they always do that

any reasoning behind this for the NAM or is it just weakening and dying over the mountains?

Definitely curious to see what NAM does at 00z, 6/18 have been drier than 00/12 over - also feel like I’ve heard there’s not as much data to work with during 6/18 so not as accurate? No idea how true that is

Dinardo’s updated map

anywhere have the graf free?

12k has a lot more sleet