Geez150

Was in the low areas of the ADK on Sat. Just enough on the ground in the O.F. area to make it look like winter....

All that rain...

That's exactly my point. These computers are only as good as the humans feeding inputs or parameters to it. And if it's still set up on out of date parameters it's going to want to show cold that it thinks should be coming. At this point I feel like I don't trust any model for winter weather, unless it's showing warm then I will believe it lol. Sorry for my general lack of knowledge on how this stuff works. In my mind I'm trying to compare it to PLCs, VFDs and stuff like that, that we use to control motors, valves, etc...and how parameters must be set up for that stuff to work.

I have no idea how they gather information. But do you think they are lost because they are working off inputs from the 70s-00s when there was more cold, plus working off current inputs of warm? And when looking at everything they can't make a good forecast?

Been seeing reports of this, but it looks like we won't feel the effects of this until the end of December and into January...

Bills fan here. But I'm rooting for Alex Smith and the football team to win the NFC east. If you watch the film on Alex's recovery it's not hard to root for him.

I grew up in Batavia so we were sometimes lucky to pick up scrapes from LE when it was more north then normal. Which back then it seemed more normal for the city of Buffalo and down stream east, Northern Erie, and parts of Genesee to get good snow. Now it seems more so south Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties only.

I'd love to. Was up that way (Fort Kent) for the first time last January on our yearly snowmobile trip. It was awesome. Every day can cold with no worries of snow disappearing right in front of your eyes. Even besides the great riding we had. Just driving around town and seeing the snow banks at the end of driveways, that you could tell had been there for some time brought back childhood memories from the 90s. I know you always remember the good in things, but growing up in the 90s it seemed like we always had snow banks and snow on the ground to play with. I mean sure there may have been one warm winter here and there but if you had one you could count on next winter to right the ship. I am so disappointed thinking about this winter that may not happen along with all the future winters that may never happen....time to try out this new maple whisky I picked up today...thanks a lot guys, lol.

I hope you are right, but most of the reports I am reading make it sound like January could be our only real shot and February will torch. Even with that being said, I'm heading up to the ADK to check out a rental for the month of February. Sucks being a snowmobiler these days, have to chase the snow like crazy and even the places like the ADK and TUG are no sure thing these past 5 years.

As last long as the adk and or the hill gets it that's far enough west for me on this one. Next "storm" bring her on in to WNY.

Also Happy Thanksgiving to you all. I will be more than grateful this Thanksgiving for average temps and average to slightly above average snowfall with no massive warm ups!

Yup that's the problem/million dollar question Freak. Do we get any average long term cold to hang around longer than a two day window. Storm watching and snow fall means nothing if it is turning into mud pies and flooded basements in two days.

Though I do fully agree with you that we shouldn't be signing off just yet. I don't necessarily blame anyone for being gun shy, based on our winters have been basically all down hill since the winter of 2014/2015.

Unfortunately, I believe you are right. I wish the people in the know, that set up the parameters for weather forecast models wouldn't use old data for winter. Say nothing past the last 10 years, as it seems something has truly changed in our winters, this last decade. The only good winter I would really count would be winter of 2014/2015. I being a snowmobiler base all my winters as good or bad based on rideable snow longevity, cold and 3 inches of snow on the ground day after day does nothing for me (except get me excited for more), nor does a big dumping of snow fallowed by 38⁰-40⁰ days. I long for the days of no worries of a warm up/blow torch to ruin my winters. I don't need to be buried alive with snow or live in sub zero temps. Average snow and cold would be great as long as we saw no major warm ups...Rant over, lol.

I sure hope not! Was really under the early belief that we would have a normal winter here in WNY, but that dream may be fading fast.

Yup winter of 19/20 has been the biggest letdown for sure. I'm going to blame it on the leap year lol.

Why couldn't it be all snow....

Yup disappointed for sure. Was really hoping for a good one, at least they are getting it in tug and OF. Time to load up the truck.

Maybe the boys out east do good still, hopefully. But for us guys in wny, on to the next one?

I was thinking the same.

Yup same here, only 3"-6" now for my area and no way am I betting on the 6". Still showing 8"-14" for the tug, and the weird thing is only show 5"-10" for old forge. Would have thought the OF would do better being more east of tug.

Straight rain here in North Livingston County, disappointed for sure...

I was surprised by how little of the snow pack did melt from rain,fog and above freezing temps here today. We had 5" this morning and I still have 4"! Hopefully things will pan out for us with this second round.

Dumb question but from a standpoint least to greatest how does the warning system go as follows. Advisory,watch, warning?

Figures