SnoJoe

Getting a few heavier flurries now. Streamers are setting up somewhat on radar. Maybe we can squeak out an inch tonight before it's all said and done. Still windy and cold. Down to 21.1 degrees with a sustained at 22 and gusts to 40.

42 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Sure does look like it's over here.  Clouds are breaking and the wind died off.  After all of that snow blowing around who knows how much actually fell but I have at least 2" on the ground everywhere I've checked so that's what I'm going with for a measurement. 

 

Better than nothing.

Same here. Two inches max. I wonder what happened with this system and why the forecasts busted so bad. It'll be interesting see the post event analysis from the experts on this one. But, for all I know it might pick back up this afternoon and we get plastered.

Something's been strange with the trajectory of the flow with this storm. It's been oriented more north than northwest. Maybe that'll change this afternoon but so far this event has been rather disappointing. I'll take what I can get but it's not what I expected.

Hammer time now. Fat flakes and like Moto said best rates yet.

10 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Right at an inch on the ground at 7am.  Still coming down pretty good.  I thought there'd be more overnight but I'm not complaining. 

Agreed. About an inch here and the radar doesn't look real impressive. Moderate snow at 23.4 degrees and windy. Not feeling the 6 to 12 but a nice winter day shaping up.

3 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

This stuff is like fat little snowballs falling from the sky. Everything is coated and its pouring.

I'm in a grapple storm too. Need the upper temps to cool a few more degrees and turn those into some fatties.

Switching between flurries and very light snow here. Just now slipped below freezing at 31.8. This is going to be our first real winter event for 19/20. No matter how big. The next 24 hours are going to be fun.

7 hours ago, Buckethead said:

WWAs are up for the border counties.  It wouldn't surprise me if they eventually get upgraded to WSW's by tomorrow morning.  

 

Just upgraded us to a warning. 6 to 12 for us, over a foot higher up.

...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.In the wake of a vigorous cold front, brisk northwesterly winds and
associated moisture will reach the southern Appalachians starting
tonight. A fairly extended period of snowfall and very windy
conditions then will continue through Monday and linger well into
Monday night. Snowfall accumulations will be highly dependent on
elevation and be most significant on northwest facing slopes.
Most lower mountain elevations away from the immediate Tennessee
border will see less than 3 inches for the event as a whole, but
the higher ridges, above 3500 feet, will see 6 to 12 inches. A
few ridgetop locations will exceed 12 inches, especially in the
Smokies.

The guys are coming to put up our Christmas decorations up tomorrow. Right on cue, let the Holiday season begin!

...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.In the wake of a vigorous cold front passage late today,
northwest upslope flow and associated moisture will spill into the
southern Appalachians from the west starting tonight. A fairly
extended period of snowfall and very windy conditions will then
continue through Monday and linger well into Monday night.
Snowfall accumulations will range wildly, from 1 to 2 inches at
many lower mountain elevations away from the immediate Tennessee
border to 3 to 6 inches in some places along the immediate
Tennessee line, to 6 to 12 inches at the higher elevation
locations above 4500 feet, especially in the Smokies.

2 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Currently have my third thunderstorm of the day.  This one is pretty loud...saw a little graupel on my deck.

Same here. Took me by surprise. What's the rule "If it thunders after you watch football and drink bourbon all day it'll snow in 24 hours". Something like that.

4 hours ago, Buckethead said:

Something I read in the GSP AFD yesterday about the ensembles not matching the operational runs.  I haven't been able to get my link for the gefs to work in a few weeks.  Perhaps I misread something...

 

 

Many GFS ensemble members in particular remain unimpressed with this setup
and feature little to no snow anywhere but the highest peaks,
however, so confidence in a significant NW flow snow event is
generally low.

This is from  GSP's  afternoon AFD. They have mentioned this several times in the last day or so. I trust our guys though.

Models look to be in good agreement for the flow snow Sunday night through Monday.  GSP does point out that their concern is that there is no ensemble support for decent moisture. I never know which one to trust. If you follow the operationals people say you must look at the ensembles and vice-a-versa.

I not sure when it was, maybe 7 or 8 years ago, we had a 4 day flow event that put down over 2 feet total. Some of the squalls in that storm were some of the heaviest I've seen. I remember one that put down about an inch and a half in 15 minutes. I think it was in February. 

Woke up to a heavy, wind scraped dusting this morning. Windy and cold with a temp of 27.3. Looks like a boring week weather wise coming up but Thanksgiving festivities will be nice. Then I'm ready for a good snow (4+ inches). At least one or two before Christmas. 

Just heard some thunder. Had 1.29 inches of rain. Maybe a flurry or two here in a little while.

Just now, WeatherHawk said:

dusting on elevated surfaces...this evening

You need a new grill. 

 A slushy coating here too. Still above freezing at 34.1. 

Nice day. Only got to 35.4 with full sun and no wind. Got down to 6.8 last night before inversion. Went down to 26.5 just after sunset tonight but already back up to 30.6. A decent cold front and a decent little snow for the second week of Nov. I had a urge to put up a christmas light today, but I didn't.

1 minute ago, Buckethead said:

Down to 7.6° here at 4400'.  It's surreal outside with the clouds racing by the moon and everything glowing.  I wore flip flops out there a minute ago...that was a miscalculation. 

Same here, minus the flip flops. Down to 8.7 with a stiff breeze. It's about time to slither underneath the electric blanket I've had pre-heating for the past hour.

Still getting an occasional shower and furries but the temps and wind is the real deal.  Temp is down to 15.8 and just had a gust to 28. Chilly even by January standards.

Back to very light snow with a wee bit of grapple mixed in. Temps just slipped into the teens at 19.4. I've had just under 2 inches of snow so far. A nice wintry look outside.

BTW,  the temp at my weather station in Salter Path is 72.4.

Snow has almost completely stopped here but the temps are still crashing. Down to 23.2 now. Starting to get breezy as well.

7 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

That's awesome Joe! Still waiting for a changeover here in Fletcher (where I work). Watched the temp go down from 44 -> 38 on the drive to work. So good to see some November flakes. 

You should change very soon. Temps have dropped almost 4 degrees in the last hour. Now down to 28.2.  Heavy snow now with an inch on the ground. 

Moderate snow. Temp down to 29.6. Already have a half an inch plus.

Today was as good as a Nov day gets. Bright sunshine, no wind, bugs are dead, close to 50 degrees. You could do anything outside and not sweat or get cold. Perfect.

This front must be on our doorstep because the wind has picked up considerably in the last 30 minutes. A few flakes with coffee and a fire in the morning would be nice.