mstr4j

Hahaha, guess where the light blue section amongst all the reds and orange...shocker!

Don't do me like this!!

Im afraid I can predict who the big losers will be...lol

Lol.....good Ole I told you so moment

It's incredible - and why in any other profession we would be down and out - but we still here hoping! Never giving up - just moments of venting weakness - But it is highly frustrating

540 line all the way to Miami - HAHA - Kick in the old nads

RGEM has a pretty good look at 84 -

That's what they said this last storm...until we were dry-slotted for 6-8 hours - No telling the glacier we could have had. Granted this is a different storm setup- but it seems as of late whatever models say, it's always way overdone. I think at one point for today the low was supposed to -8, ended up at 12 (20 degree difference) - Granted it's cold as all get out, but nothing is verifying as modeled. Again, that is more upstate of SC, it maybe verifying perfectly everywhere else, but here - not close.

Poor Upstate of SC - Takes a BOMB of a storm to get .4 qpf, which is always over done. Cut that in half, .2, the half to virga.....We looking at .1 qpf for a bomb phase, maybe we can get 20-1 ratio!! hahahaha - Here is to hope!

Cooked, toast, stick a fork in her - If you are triad or upstate, sc looking for snow....You Can Forget About it! This forum should change to coastal, NVa, SE maintains thread. Upstate and Triad we have the worst snow climo ever and it used to not be like this!

Went from rain, to sleet, to absolutely pissing sleet with snow, back to just ripping sleet. Doesn't make any since at all. Spartanburg, SC on 85

One of those shitty but gorgeous pictures

I would think so...seems lime of those scenarios on the escarpment that if its heavy rain it will be less effective on power outages and if it isn't heavy can probably stay sleet. We will see

@Tony Sisk Yea, I agree with that - i guess i meant to say i see how it happens, I just didnt think upper levels would hold through CAD like the lower levels would. Learn something new every storm...but that low is getting close so one would think the change over is soon - if upper levels hold through this Ill have a new perspective on how powerful CAD can be

I agree, it's so odd - Spartanburg on I-85 was snow early, then sleet for a while, then snow being mixed back in with the some sleet, then all sleet again. Common sense says how? With this front coming West to east directly over us, freezing rain is inevitable right? Right? Right? I hope not, but right? haha

What's interesting for my neck of the woods in Upstate, SC the difference in temps from models post storm Euro - Low of 18 GFS - -1 - Insane Canadian - 10 Icon - 8 All is insanely cold for the upstate - but will be a determining factor early on in road conditions. 19 degree gradient means harder freeze, longer to warm-up, being above freezing for shorter/longer duration. I guess as an educator, at the least we are able to have e-learning days as long as it isn't lights out!

Looks like the FV3 is putting down more moisture than either of the other high res models

Alright guys - getting into nowcasting and heavily relying on climo for our regions. Question moving forward today - NAM vs HRRR vs RGEM vs FV3 - What do we like best in terms of verification for different aspects of their model "expertise"? NAM = Best Thermals of Atmosphere 18 hours away from kickoff? RGEM = Location and movement of Lows HRRR = Dewpoints - Those are some of the lowest Dews I have seen for the upstate of SC in a long time - and for the duration once moisture arrives - crazy What's everyone's thought - If we could put together the best high resolution model what would we pick from each, or does anyone feel one of these is truly superior in all aspects?

It's simple from here on out - if it isn't in the high-resolution models inside 36 hours, take it with a grain of salt. I have never in my life seen so many thread the needle examples - and no matter the ingredients, it fails. Is what it is - hoping the 2m temps mean sleet for a while, makes sledding fun!

yep - unfortunate I feel this is going to be Dec 2002 all over again...potentially worse

Boys - The Upstate of SC, especially I-85 in Spartanburg, has seen ZILCH in years! Seeing that mid-morning GFS run was one for the ages, 19 inches of snow (hahahahaha). But there is a big difference between digital snow and real snow. We haven't even SNIFFED a flake and won't during this system either - Praying for 6 inches of sleet now!

Gotcha- Great explanation, I appreciate it. Ends up being a typical Miller B storm for us then just have some blocking and solid HP which = No Bueno / Ice will be brutal

@NorthHillsWx - let's say the high is predicted correctly in strength (1038-1048) and can stay in that general Pennsylvania/NY region. Do you believe or have you seen a huge LP system just barrel through it or even run the HP up out of there? Common sense tells me cold dense air will slide under it and down the apps making the CAD strong (granted ice is freaking scary). Jist curious if you have seen anything like this or have an opinion either way? Thanks

Im thinking 2 things 1. Poor Mets - SE Mets- is there a need to forecast anything outside 48 hours? 2. Do we need SE winter Mets anymore poor guys should just take a 4-5 month sabbatical every year

I'd rather it bust and keep going north than this shit - SE of United States where everyone is already skeptical of winter weather and unprepared. Old people die in this setup...needs to just move on out of here - so freaking catastrophic and dangerous. Life threatening