miamarsden8

Seriously, like...why lol. I'm about 10 mins SE of Hamilton. This is just unfortunate. Hopefully it builds behind that dry slot or the event may be over for me. 

Good luck to everyone in Indiana and NW Ohio! GG! I hope to see the pictures.

Like this is a nasty dry slot. Why.

I'm concerned about that dry slot in western Kentucky. I think that's going to nuke snow totals around here. I think I'm boned at this point if that dry slot doesn't fill in...

Crap.

Latest from ILN...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Significant winter storm to continue to impact the region
overnight into early Tuesday as surface low pressure tracks
into the Upper Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will settle
over the region bringing dry weather and cold temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system with a similar trajectory
will create another round of winter weather for Wednesday night
and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Major winter storm to continue to impact the area tonight
into early Tuesday. This storm will likely cause a range of
impacts from very heavy snow up to a foot across portions of
East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio to up to a half inch
of ice over the Scioto River Valley/Southeast Ohio and portions
of Northeast KY.

Model solution consensus toward more amplified mid level trof.
This leads to further west and deeper surface low. This allows
more warm air aloft over the very cold surface temperatures.

Precipitation beginning to re-develop and fill in from the
southwest as favorable lift re-develops. This pcpn initially is
falling as freezing rain/sleet along the I-71 corridor.

8H Frontogenesis intensifies this evening  with a dual upper
level jet band providing upper level divergence. Expect snowfall
rates this evening to be 1 to 1.5 inches per hour in heavy snow
over the northwest portion of ILN/s FA. Confidence in heavy snow
over the northwest is high. With more warm air into the I-71
corridor this region will be in the transition zone of pcpn
types. Sleet and freezing rain will diminish snow totals in this
transition zone -- with 5 to 8 inches expected overnight.

Over the lower Scioto River Valley and northeast KY the
predominate precipitation type is freezing rain. Major ice
accumulation up to a half inch is forecast overnight. This
amount of ice will likely lead to power outages and tree limbs
down.

With sfc low tracking thru the Upper Ohio Valley overnight
expect the pressure gradient to increase tonight -- especially
over West Central Ohio. North-northeast winds gusting up to 35
mph will result in blowing and drifting snow overnight.

Have continued winter storm warnings across the entire area.
Cold temperatures to continue with lows from near 10 northwest
to near 20 southeast. Cold wind chills in the single digits
thru the daylight hours.

Large surface to build into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Tuesday
night. Very cold temperatures with lows from the single digits
below zero northwest to the single digits above zero southeast.
Wind chill look to be single digits below zero.

3 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said:

very long time lurker, figured i should chime in. i live on the western doorstep of mason, ohio. currently lots of sleet but as i write this, i see a couple big flakes starting to drop in & the sleet rate pick up/slow down randomly.

 

hoping for some good stuff here shortly...

 

If Fairfield is any indication, it's coming. These flakes are massive.

Just now, chuckster2012 said:

Getting buried in Se Indiana rn..

If you wanna send some just east over the border into SW Ohio, we'd love you forever.

Heavy snow in Fairfield now. Ripping pretty decently.

For folks in the Cincinnati area, it's going to come down to snowfall rates. I think that's the reality of all of this, and it's really unfortunate.

NO Don't do me like this!!!!!!!

Give me higher rates! Pleeeeease?

2 minutes ago, OhioWX said:

Sleeting in SW Ohio. You hate to see it. Hopefully it'll switch over soon, but I'm not optimistic at all about decent snowfall totals.

In Fairfield, at least from my window, it's light snow. It's literally like a 15-mile difference. It's absurd.

Like, I'm on the north side around Fairfield, so my odds are still decent, but also, I don't like how close the sleet is at all. I know I can't be the only one near Cincy getting nervous. Mason is getting sleet, and that's about 20? minutes east. This is way too close for comfort.

1 minute ago, frostfern said:

It's nerve-wracking being right on the northern edge of this thing.  Sharp cutoff somewhere between MKG and GRR.  Already got 2" of new powder from light snows last night.  I'll be happy if this next batch can drop a quick 6 inches.  Depends on how fluffy it is.  DGZ is plenty deep if a nice back-edge band sets up as the system wraps up tonight.

It's also nerve-wracking to be on the eastern edge of this thing. The further west it goes, the less optimistic I'm getting.

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

First initial push of snow on northern edge kind of poofed over me but looks like some mod to heavy snow is pushing in soon south of this. 

If that isn't the single most western-central Illinois thing I've ever seen...

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Well, the Kuchera maps have been spot on with the snow down here, FWIW. 

They even pegged the snow amounts in San Antonio and Austin right. 

Furthermore, if the maps are based on 17:1 ratios, I know areas down south were hitting 20:1 ratios apparently, so it would make sense if those turn out to be correct, but of course, I'm not qualified to speak on whether that will continue up here.

Flurries/lt. snow with some blowing in northern Cincy suburbs now. It begins!

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Well damn!!!

When's the last time we saw these areas share a widespread 12-15" snowstorm?

The reality is that this is a very historic event potentially if all plays out as it should. 

FOR ILN:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A stronger wave will eject out the longwave trough later today.
Guidance provides confidence that precipitation will blossom across
the region mid-late afternoon today, with rates quickly increasing
as a corresponding surface low intensifies and lifts from the
Tennessee Valley into southwest PA late this evening. ECMWF going
more amplified for the 00Z run, and other models coming in line with
this.

The result is higher confidence in the previous 12Z package shifting
the surface low path to the west, as a blend of several model
solutions consistently provides sleet and freezing rain in the
southeast. This leads to heavy snow from the I-71 corridor back to
west central Ohio and east-central Indiana. In addition, the more
amplified pattern leads to higher QPF, so storm total snow grids now
yield 7-11 inches in the all-snow areas northwest of I-71 and 0.1 to
0.3 inches of ice in the southeast. Woudn`t be surprised if the
gradient between heavy snow and sleet/freezing rain needs tightening
up with upcoming updates -- especially from northern Kentucky
through central Ohio.

Have also kept blowing snow in the weather grids this evening during
peak snowfall rates. Winds gusting around 25-30mph are not out of
the question.

Low will eject northeast Tuesday morning with a chance of flurries
remaining in the very cold air behind the low. Low temperatures in
the teens Monday night will slowly increase to high temperatures a
few degrees on either side of 20 Tuesday.

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This next round is definitely a little early.  Had been expecting a lull until around 2 or 3 pm central but not gonna happen.  Not sure if it means more snow or if the entire system is moving faster than progged.

That's what I'm trying to figure out myself. It could mean 2-3 extra inches or it could mean a faster storm, I have no clue. Anyone hearing anything on how this'll affect it?

4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I don't believe it at all. ILX is way underestimating this. I think event total here will easily be 5-7in in metro Peoria. 

As someone who used to live in Macomb -- ILX does that a lot. No clue why.

Just now, JustMePatrick said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0088.html

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...northern/western
   Kentucky...southern Illinois...much of Indiana...southwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 151644Z - 152245Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow near the Mississippi River will spread
   northeastward across much of the discussion area over the next 3-6
   hours.  Accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in heavier
   bands.  A few areas of sleet may also mix in with the snow across
   Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave over
   Oklahoma has resulted in a broad area of moderate to heavy
   precipitation from eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee southward to
   the central Gulf Coast.  Much of the precipitation has fallen as
   heavy snow, though sleet has mixed in with the precipitation across
   western Tennessee at times.  Additional bands of precipitation are
   developing in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri currently,
   where recent METARs indicate heavy snow in Carbondale, IL; St.
   Louis, MO; and Poplar Bluff, MO.  This snow has developed roughly
   1-2 hours faster than this morning's 12Z model guidance.

   With broad-scale lift approaching the discussion area, the
   expectation is that snowfall rates will continue to intensify as the
   expanding precipitation shield moves northeastward across the
   discussion area.  Areas of 1-2 inch/hour snow rates are expected in
   heavier bands.  Model forecast soundings across Kentucky indicate a
   warm layer between H7-85 that may allow for sleet to occasionally
   mix in with snow across Kentucky.

I was actually about to note that. Reading the radar, it looked like it was at least an hour ahead of accuweather's projections. Is this a good or bad thing though? I'm uncertain...

Just now, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

Live by the nam die by the nam!

I want to see the gfs and euro before I panic.

2 minutes ago, ohiocat5908 said:

Can we not? Don't screw me!!!

1 minute ago, WeatherMonger said:

By Cincy's forecast you are expecting 7.5" on .78" QPF which is a shade under 10:1 ratios. Probably should not assume 20:1 ratios there, it's all about the thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere amongst other things I am not qualified to speak for. 

 

15:1 could be possible though yeah? Because at 15:1 even that's absurd.

7 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

As far as I know.

So if that's the case, I'd argue Cincys total is probably closer to 12 than the forecast 6-9. My call of 6-10 might be lower that it should be.

4 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

More than 20:1 snow ratio there.

Would 20:1 give us better snow totals or?