We are about 2-3 degrees colder than the 18z NAM modeled.
looking at the hrrr last runs. Every single run was too warm until just before now. All of these are modeling warmer than reality.
I mean. Isn’t this what we always see? 5 days out the models show 48” Of snow somewhere. Ends up shifting north and less snow. Honestly some of these model runs with how much snow they give Deep South. It would be a disaster.