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fluoronium

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Posts posted by fluoronium

  1. It's beautiful outside now. Most of my best storms in recent years have started with anomalously warm temps the day before the main event.

    HRRR is suggesting some heavy banding further west in central IL. Peoria area posters would like this scenario. :weenie:

  2. 34 minutes ago, Chambana said:

    anxiety and anticipation has taken over, this might be CMI biggest snowfall on record. 

    This is quite a change compared to such an abysmal start to winter in eastern IL. Has Champaign even received a 1" snowfall yet this season?

  3. What are the chances of lightning in the the heaviest bands here? I've seen thundersnow from intense fgen bands before but I really don't know what to look for on the models to have an idea of this possibility. From my understanding, slantwise instability isn't apparent from simply looking at skew-T diagrams, and there's probably more to it than just a sharp horizontal temperature gradient. I'd love to hear input from some of the more knowledgeable members here.

  4. Bonkers seeing ensemble mean totals like that.

    The operational 18z GFS is nearly an all time weenie run for my backyard. It would be incredible to have such a garbage season drop a monster storm of even half of what was is modeled there. I know it has happened to Chicago in recent years, but I've missed out on most of the fun in recent Februarys.

    • Like 1
  5. 20 hours ago, Cary67 said:

    Lost two Japanese maples to that late January cold snap

    I lost all of my rhododendrons and a lot of other plants rated for zone 4 in that cold snap, and I'm in zone 5b. Now I welcome these sudden cold snaps, since they are good for beating down invasive insect populations like Japanese beetles and emerald ash borer. Plus, what plants I had survive that snap should be able to tolerate future extreme cold here.

    • Like 1
  6. I have no idea what he was thinking, since models had been consistent on an outbreak setup for at least a week prior to that. I mean just the anomalous warmth in December alone is a pretty solid bet for at least some severe weather.

    In Broyles defense, he did call the 3/28/20 crapvection bust 4 days out, and he was also the mastermind behind this amazing resource for violent tornadoes: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/outbreaks-small.php#

    • Like 1
  7. 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

    On the SPC past events page the original day 3 is gone, as only the updated midday day3 update shows up.  Was hoping to go back and have a laugh at that original day3 but it's been edited out of existence, at least on the SPC past events page. :lol:

    I'm glad I saved a copy of this gem. We can't let the SPC cover up this one :lol:d3.png.60495e1d08683c1c59f7c6964280a616.png

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 2
  8. I've been sitting right at the cutoff most of the day, getting a mix of sleet and snow accumulating to about 2". For such dense ratios, the snow is surprisingly dry and not sticking to the trees much.

    Funny how winter is finally starting here on January 1st, just like last year.

  9. It's a crazy we have a threat like this so close to the shortest day of the year, but then again, cold season has been the severe season in my area in recent years. It's a shame initiation will likely be after sunset, but regardless I'll be chasing anyway due to the rarity of the event.

    This is actually quite a scary setup considering the giant area of the warm sector, the screaming storm motions, and nighttime initiation. Plus many will be caught off guard due to the fact that it's December. Even crazier is that we might get another tornado threat next week much further to the NW. :blink:

    • Like 2
  10. 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

    Unless you guys think that there's actually a chance those supercells stay supercells long enough for me to drive up there, which I doubt

    A nice thing about chasing a setup like this is that even if all the supercells crap out, you'll still get treated to a nice MCS at the end of the chase. Point your car into the wind and enjoy

    • Like 1
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