fluoronium

40"+ or bust

6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Stop poking it!!!

Any amount of severe weather in that region would be historic for the time of year, so this has the potential to be absolutely insane. It's too bad storms are going to be mainly at night and moving at incredibly fast speeds.

It's a crazy we have a threat like this so close to the shortest day of the year, but then again, cold season has been the severe season in my area in recent years. It's a shame initiation will likely be after sunset, but regardless I'll be chasing anyway due to the rarity of the event.

This is actually quite a scary setup considering the giant area of the warm sector, the screaming storm motions, and nighttime initiation. Plus many will be caught off guard due to the fact that it's December. Even crazier is that we might get another tornado threat next week much further to the NW.

There's still a consistent signal for severe in the southern portions of this subforum for the 10th. I'd be happy without seeing a single flake of snow this month if it meant I got to see an elusive December tornado.

At this point I've conceded that December is merely an extra month of fall. If it's not going to snow, torch it.

Maybe we can squeeze out some cold season severe with that SE ridge that keeps showing up on the models.

I've never seen a tornado in anything above a SPC 5% tornado risk

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Unless you guys think that there's actually a chance those supercells stay supercells long enough for me to drive up there, which I doubt

A nice thing about chasing a setup like this is that even if all the supercells crap out, you'll still get treated to a nice MCS at the end of the chase. Point your car into the wind and enjoy

I'd be more interested in future supercells that develop along/south of that boundary. If I was closer I'd be chasing it.

I can't believe there's no flash flood watch out in central IL for this rain band of death

I'm still feeling the afterglow from my August 9th chase. All time best chase for me! So many tornadoes with beautiful, textbook structure!! It's been a brutal couple of years for storm chasing locally so it is so nice to have a day perform like that.

I'm playing the MCV today based on proximity alone. Seeing all the crapvection early in the morning had me worried but now the sun is out here and I'm more hopeful.

It's disgustingly cold for late May, and I didn't even get consolation thunderstorms during the temperature drop. This sucks.

Looks like a lot of record cold highs are about to fall.

I just upload them and press the little + symbol in the corner.

like this:

ILX confirms 4 EF-U tornadoes so far for yesterday's event: https://www.weather.gov/ilx/May3_2021_SevereWeather

I ended up chasing further south than I originally intended, and was able to observe the weak tornado near Ashland, IL. I'm pretty sure I captured another tornado near Raymond, IL as well.

I'll be out chasing today, probably along i74 or US136. For those chasing west of the IL river, be aware of the river crossings in the area so you don't get trapped or miss out on a storm. Also anything roughly west of the Jacksonville, IL area to close to the Mississippi river is a 100% dead zone for verizon reception.

the ~0.75" of rain here yesterday was great to get the morel mushrooms to pop. We could have used a little more rain with how dry it's been though.

It's crazy how dead March and April have been for severe weather here lately. This spring was finally warm for a change, yet thunderstorms have been almost totally absent. I'm hoping May will finally bring some interesting weather here.

HRRR showing pockets of 100+ 0-3km CAPE both tomorrow and Wednesday. I'd love to score some thundersnow out of this.

lol. Might as well go for a 4th year in a row of mid April snow storms.

I wonder if I'll ever see fruit from my orchard.

NWS point and click gives me 50's and 60's throughout the whole forecast. The previous few days have been great as well.

What a nice change for early March compared to recent years!

36 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Does that statement not seem bizarre to you at all?   Our data is from what...8 months?  Isn't a typical vaccine trial and approval process many years?  

What I find bizarre is that people that are such skeptics about these vaccines are never skeptical about the long term effects from the virus itself. Long term lung/heart/nerve damage in covid survivors is well documented in literature. The vaccines have shown to be incredibly safe compared to covid over the same time scale.

I realize under a year of data for a new vaccine is less than ideal, but the virus would have run through everybody if we waited a couple years. It's not like the vaccines were created from scratch a year ago though. The methods used in the current authorized vaccines (mRNA, adenovirus vector) have been studied and trialed on humans for several years before this virus was ever infecting humans, including for two related coronaviruses (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV). It's not vaccine or nothing, you are choosing between a vaccine and the virus. You'd be silly to think your chances are better off with the mystery bat virus from China over one of the authorized vaccines.

Personally, I'm thankful for every person ahead of me in line that refuses it. It only means I'll get one sooner.

Snow coming down fairly heavy right now. Flake size is tiny compared to the huge flakes I was getting with the light snow in the morning

It's currently snowing and -2F outside. The only other time I can remember getting accumulations below 0F was during the polar blast of jan/feb 2019.

Seeing the models creep NW with the extent of >6" amounts has me hopeful What a crazy storm this is. Talk about spreading the wealth!!

With all the snow just north of me, it looks like I'll be going into this cold snap with close to no snow on the ground.

I wonder how hard it would be to find the lowest recorded temperature with <1" of snow on the ground at a given observing site.

sitting just south of the cutoff yet again