Ian

Did a pattern update post today with some thoughts from Wes and Judah Cohen plus Jason making my text make sense. https://wapo.st/3W2EU4j

3 hours ago, H2O said:

Gimme gimme gimme

yeah dca area bullseye is gonna happen in a marginal pattern with a marginal storm 

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I was referring more not about the weather part of it. Just nice to have ya'll back. But since we are weather forum and all of that......What are your thoughts on the -NAO sticking around for an extended period. It is going to be strong. That isnt debatable at this point.  And I think it ends up staying with us for the majority of the winter. Through early Feb at least. We are all guessing at this point. But the MJO is going 7-8 and then to the COD. I think the Mid Atlantic ends up in the battle zone this year. Maybe no "big dogs". But I am bullish about an over climo winter for many of us. Maybe even WAY over climo for those of us with elevation. Again. Nice to have you back Ian. 

well - figured I should say something more than it needs to be cold to snow lol. I dunno. I think it showing up early and strong is probably a sign it will try to 1) linger and/or 2) return. but not sure it's quite the be all it might be in some nino winters etc. we've had a recent tendency for -nao and east coast ridging in last few winters. not saying that's going to be the case long term here but the shifts in the nearer term on that front might be worth considering. a lot of it imo is Dec is tough now.. warming is a pain. 

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Man. Been really nice to have Ian and many of the originals back the past couple of weeks. 

Keep it simple right? Feels like it's hard to get that ideal modeled pattern in a Nina around here. Still looks okay at some distance but verbatim it's mostly warm until mid-Dec on Euro ensembles for instance. Not great. We don't do cold December anymore. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is 100% but I continue to observe the fact that over the last 10 years we seem to need increasingly anomalously perfect patterns to get snow. The days of lucking into snow with marginal setups seem a thing of the past.  

part of it is we don't have much prolonged cold. unfortunately it needs to be cold to snow. 

I dunno if this is behind paywall or not but we did a look at the classic look for a DC snowstorm before Jan 2016. That block location and movement is v sexy. 

The key characteristics of Washington’s biggest snowstorms - The Washington Post

5 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Not to nitpick but aren’t 50-50 lows traditionally at…50N-50W? My geography may be off but I’m not sure how helpful a 60-60 low would be for us…

when dt woofs no worries where the 50-50 is. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

did musk kick you off twitter lol?

yes

Modern Nina Dec with above avg snow in DC. 

Calling for a KU 15+ days out to be the first... good ole Twitter. 

5 hours ago, H2O said:

Ian posting means the band is getting back together. 
 

anyone let rainstorm know?  Old timers will know that reference 

rainstorm in the Trump era must be somethin'

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hello stranger.

Nice article by the way

Thanks! Think I'm quitting Twitter so maybe I'll remember to come here lol. 

Prob more a game of details like how/if suppression, how long it lasts etc. Background state shouldn't support it for a long time but they do roll once you get strong -NAO/-AO. Boxing Day has been #1 for a while so prepare for DC flurries. 

This is a great pattern advertised tho. I mean can't ask for a ton more at this range except maybe for a Nino instead of a nina. 

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The -NAO starts building at D5. That’s not fantasy land.

plus the mechanisms that kick it off are already getting underway in the Scandi/Kara Sea region. would be a pretty ugly bust on ensembles for -NAO not to materialize. more about details etc. from earlier today with some quotes from Wes: https://wapo.st/3io8anP

I hear it's gonna be a yuge winter 

18 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

As one of the few in here that actually believes in the NAM, especially within range, it's consistency is a major red flag. I know NO ONE wants to hear that though. I'd take the NAM in a street fight over the RGEM most days. 

I'm wrong a lot in life though, and I often put my confidence in the wrong things, so hopefully this is just another one of those times. 

nam is pretty good esp in the short range. the fact that it and the euro have generally turned the backside into very little is a flag for sure. not sure I'm too worried about tomorrow tho... see what the gfs says I suppose.   

34 minutes ago, snowfan said:

NAM twins and HRRRRRR gonna cause panic.

I am here for the panic

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Nice

Prepare the Jebwalk 

On 1/28/2021 at 1:55 PM, yoda said:

Now we just need @Ian and @Bob Chill and our journey to the snow side will be complete!

yoda!!

nwscast for Tue night..

On 11/10/2020 at 7:08 AM, MN Transplant said:

I mean, Ian’s gotta still be in this

Just came to check lol.  

Dulles screws me a bit. 

BWI: Nov 15

IAD: Nov 15

DCA: Dec. 15

RIC Nov 15

TB: 87 
 

14 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Is this now the crackpot rant thread?

you rang?

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event?

I'd guess upscale growth will be relatively rapid but it has some decent ingredients. As usual -- esp around here -- need to see how the morning plays out. Today actually looks relatively interesting so far. Maybe mapgirl will catch a tube. 

I think social science has led to the ref on numbers. They have been in many of their graphics for a while. We tend to always mention numbers ourselves ... a level one of five, etc. 

Figures I'm in Cape Cod. Enjoy the wedges. 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I keep forgetting how much of a dumpster fire the main tropical threads are. I post something in there to raise a point about caution regarding RI on a ragged looking tropical system, and all the doom porn posters come out and brigade the crap out of you.

tropical season is the worst

Hit squarely with two solid cells today in NW DC. Gotta be an inch from both... ground can't really hold anything more it's becoming a lake.  Solid shelfie too.