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Ian

Professional Forecaster
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Posts posted by Ian

  1. 1 hour ago, Ajb said:

    There's always a lot of talk about temp records, but I can't remember this many days with dews in the seventies. Is anyone keeping track of records along those lines?

    dew point records are tricky to come by tho worth looking into 

  2. 33 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

    Hopefully this summer we'll be able to say that DCA 1) never reached 100; 2) never had a low >= 80.  (The latter is getting rare in modern times..)

    No 80 low would be a bummer. 

    This month does seem poised to break the record for the warmest minimum of the month at DCA tho. Currently 71 degrees, old record is 67. 

  3. Got day 26 90+. Looks like we are destined for 28, which is a solid gain on the old record of 25 in 2011. Will be a tough one to beat... at least a couple years maybe. 

    Avg high temp second hottest on record behind 2011 to date. Looks like it'll be a photo finish for second on the overall average. So much for the heat being lame. 

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  4. 20 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

    Ever been to Texas in summer? It would surprise you how brown their grass is. You'd think nature would adapt to where it lives. Relevant to us, not sure what it means that we are getting brown grass during the summers..

    Yeah I lived there for a few years as a teen. The subtropical ridge extensions tend to set up shop over that region so it often is cloudless during peak heat season. a good recipe to fry grass etc. Our climate is generally wet year round in comparison, but late summer/early fall in particular can be quite dry. It's not unusual historically but the frequency/intensity does seem to be on the increase. 

  5. 7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    I know it doesn't seem to matter much here either. Happens every year at this time. High sun and torchy temps.

    yeah it's rather common at some point from mid-summer to early fall or so. seems moreso lately tho. 

  6. 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

    Still tracking for 3rd hottest all-time, even with the cool down at the end of the month.

      Day of Month Max Min Cumulative Average  
    July 1-20   1860 1498 3358 84.0 Actuals
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 21 97 76 3531 84.1 Actuals
    Wednesday, July 22, 2020 22 94 74 3699 84.1 Actuals
    Thursday, July 23, 2020 23 93 75 3867 84.1 NWS Forecast
    Friday, July 24, 2020 24 89 74 4030 84.0 NWS Forecast
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 25 91 73 4194 83.9 NWS Forecast
    Sunday, July 26, 2020 26 95 74 4363 83.9 NWS Forecast
    Monday, July 27, 2020 27 96 76 4535 84.0 NWS Forecast
    Tuesday, July 28, 2020 28 94 78 4707 84.1 NWS Forecast
    Wednesday, July 29, 2020 29 90 75 4872 84.0 GFS/Euro blend
    Thursday, July 30, 2020 30 82.5 73.5 5028 83.8 GFS/Euro blend
    Friday, July 31, 2020 31 81 70.5 5179.5 83.5 GFS/Euro blend
                 
    90 degree days - current   21   July 2011 84.5  
    90 degree days - forecast   27   July 2012 84.0  
    90 degree day - record   25   July 2010 83.1  
            July 1993 83.1  
            July 1999 83.0  

    We do have some room although have not tested what would bring it below 2010. NBM is 83.6, which is down 0.2 from last night. 90 deg today would make me more comfortable on the count win. My gut says we will get it. 

    nbm-conus-KDCA-daily_tmin_tmax-5512800.thumb.png.d10d67eae4087f6c3339b5eee00794de.png

  7. 22 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

    Think we could make a run at most 90 in a year all time? We got a late start this year if my memory is correct?

    hard to say at this point. after the slow start, we're basically neck and neck with last year, which was "close" but still a struggle from reaching it. ensembles have moved a bit toward a relaxation late month/early aug, which was initially advertised on the weeklies but now the weeklies have minimal relax. the pattern has been quite stable and I think we prob favor more ridging into late summer/early fall. 

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