purduewx80

i got out of work in the loop around 5:30. roads and sidewalks are all just wet. definitely the bridges and overpasses:

You can already see the right-moving cells in WI on some of the longer composite loops. It appears all the differences in guidance for S WI and N IL come down to breaking the cap. Will have to watch that cell in WI even though it may move off the instability axis in the next hour or two. It will lay out a mesoscale boundary near the warm front that may also enhance a lake breeze and its associated convergence in east-central and southeast WI, for a potential initiation area. It's hard to ignore the consistency of the ECMWF and HRGEM to initiate cells back near MSN, DBQ, RFD, but we definitely need to think about a strong cap holding things back today. Mid-level lapse rates have been observed near 9C/km at OAX and DVN this morning: That plus a ~70KT mid-level jet forecast to overspread the region should allow for quick supercell development around 5-6PM - these will eventually grow upscale into that long, SE-moving squall line overnight.

doubt this would stick in the city (and be more mix or IP).

The warm front should blast through Friday morning given stout SW'rly flow. With enough sunshine, these 850 temps could bring highs to the low 80s for parts of NJ. Soundings suggest some cirrus around, so we may top out just shy of 80 in the city.

One or two days of anomalous warmth does not prove the climate is changing (even though it is). Records today from 2016 will be hard to beat - EWR: 82. NYC: 77. LGA: 75. JFK: 67.

Nice call!

This forecast sounding from LI shows the instability is based between 850-900mb. The inversion is far too strong to get a water spout, but the combo of a pressure fall/rise couplet associated with the passing low/front in addition to strong cold air advection just behind the front will likely allow some of the 40-50KT winds to mix to the surface for a few hours.

Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.

Wind will be the main issue Friday evening. Probably minor delays if anything.

Euro touching 60 next Wed-Thu. Records are near 70. Could be close.

Just trying to point out that words matter. You could've described that way differently and still been positive about the changes at 500 mb. To me, you implied everyone in the NE got snow out of that solution. It's much closer to what the EPS has been showing. Going to have to rely on perfect dynamics to get accumulating snow in what will be a garbage air mass.

That long ass jet, though.

Definitely showed some improvement on the 00Z run. 06Z GEFS also more supportive of some snow here this weekend.

Exactly what I'm thinking.

Nah, it wasn't. Also a torch. Snow limited to the central Appalachians. While there is some potential next weekend, it's a thread the needle in a marginal airmass/pattern situation, so good luck.

Closest 850mb temps zero or colder are in southwest WV and near the ME/Quebec border. Torched.