WinterFire

@donsutherland1 did this analysis for DCA recently in another forum. I won’t repost without permission but it presented a very clear decline in seasonal snowfall combined with a stark increase in average winter temp and shorter cold season length. Perhaps he’d be willing to re-share here for reference?

I know I’m late to this and probably beating a dead horse at this point but people are acting like the old NWS measuring site was in Tenlytown, with 400’ elevation on DCA. It was at 24th and M, like two blocks north of GWU. It’s in the heart of the urban core! I seriously doubt that official NWS measurements would be all that different if reporting site stayed there instead of moving to DCA in 1941…climate change is real and winters in DC are warmer and less snowy on the whole because of it. I am shocked that this is a controversial thing to say on a science-based forum. 

Looking at the 500 layer, it looks like there’s a healthy vort swinging through on Christmas Day

But there’s nothing reflected on the surface. Is this just a complete lack of moisture, or is this something to keep an eye on that could sneak up on us?

4 hours ago, H2O said:

My Xmas wish is for everyone to stop replying to Ji, quoting Ji and/or Ldumb as well. 
 

 

Everyone: “If he annoys you, just use the ignore feature!”

Me: Cool! *ignores Ji*
 

Everyone: *continues to quote every stupid thing the troll posts*
 

What, I ask, is the point of the ignore feature when I have to read everything ignored users post anyway?

Hello happy hour GFS…

ETA obviously this is a day 10+ op run so the usual caveats apply. But it is nice to see how the pattern evolves, with the Dec 9/10 and 12-13 storms(?) blowing up off the coast and helping to drag in the cold air!

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My fear is by the time the pac improves we lose the Atlantic. That’s been a common theme. I’ll take the pac to increase chances if some snow given temps are the bigger problem lately, but truth is we’re unlikely to do very well without both cooperating

I definitely get the lingering fear having been burned too many times but it just doesn’t seem like the Atlantic is in a rush to break down, unless I’m missing something? Add to that, how much do we need a super-cooperative pacific vs just not having a -PNA on roids (which as you pointed out seems to be a common theme these days)?

At least, all of that is true for snow. For actual cold on the other hand…that just seems to be an impossibility since the 2019-2020 winter. 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS.  You need cold for snow.  Next 7 days won’t cut it,  second 7 day period we need to watch.  Hopefully by this time next week we will see a threat in sight.

I feel like I might be missing something but hasn’t this always been the case? It feels like for this whole past week we’ve been targeting the sensible wx flip to lag the pattern flip by about a week. Meaning we’ve never genuinely been expecting cold and snow in the upcoming week, but starting from next weekend (i.e., the 9th on), we might see threats. But even with that, I don’t think anyone was seriously big dog hunting until about a week on from that (from 15th+). 
 

To me, that’s all still suggested by the models but maybe I’m missing something?

Not to nitpick but aren’t 50-50 lows traditionally at…50N-50W? My geography may be off but I’m not sure how helpful a 60-60 low would be for us…

I have no skin in this game (key lime pie is the best thing in the world but a good carrot cake is pretty good too…), but if you’re looking to vary the key lime pie game, might I suggest Bon Appetit’s cranberry-lime pie? I make it every year for Thanksgiving and to be honest it’s the best part of the meal: 

Cranberry-Lime Pie http://www.bonappetit.com/recipe/cranberry-lime-pie

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You can cross that off the list lol. Been pretty darn cold overall this month, with well above avg snow for eastern areas. Low to mid 20s during the day multiple times and single digit lows.

Also, I am starting to like Ninas here lately. Only winters that have produced avg or above avg snow have been Ninas since 2016- and that winter was a Big torchy Nino save for 10 days and (for many) one big snow event with some fluky blocking. Ninas aren't always awful in this region.

Fwiw, at DCA Feb 2016 was almost exactly average temp-wise with almost a week below freezing (2/10-2/15). Only other comparable cold outbreak since then was late Dec-early Jan 2017-2018. Granted it’s DCA with a different climate than where you are but I don’t know that Feb 2016 was really an all-out torch anywhere in the region?

So just to be accurate about data here, for BWI this is the thirrd-snowiest January since 2000 (only behind 2016 and 2000). January 2011 is the only other January to crack 10 inches at BWI, coming in at 10.8”. So 11” if this month cracked 10” (or came close) and you live east of the fall line, it’s been a pretty good January. I guess it feels like it could have been better maybe? But it’s been pretty great by any objective measure ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Man I worry about the reading comprehension of some of the posters on this board. Adult illiteracy is a real thing, isn’t it…

I don’t know if we like him anymore or not, and this might be wishcasting, but it is an interesting explanation of the 0z suite so far:

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

All this time I actually thought it was brass tax.  Learn something new every day...

Apparently it might come from furniture: 

"According to one, brass-headed tacks were used in the foundation of chairs, so when you went to reupholster them, the tacks were last things you “got down” to after removing the covering and stuffing. Hence, that’s when the craftsman was really getting to the heart of the matter.

Read more at: https://www.bnd.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/answer-man/article197464239.html#storylink=cpy"

I'm on board with 1-4" imby, and I think that's a reasonable goal forum-wide. I really appreciated @WxUSAF's breakdown of the three parts of of the storm (Friday arctic front, Friday night ULL pass, Saturday coastal) a few hours ago (on page like 74 I think?). I feel like if we could all break down the storm into those parts it'll be a lot easier for us all to accept missing out on the coastal, since that doesn't necessarily mean we miss out on the rest of the storm. 

Someone mentioned Jan '05 yesterday--that was my first real winter storm ever and I remember being so excited for the forecast of like 8" in DC and then we ended up with only like half that while places NE of us got plastered. I wonder how similar the two evolutions are?

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

People are acting like children, including the ones who are poking their noses in and commenting/joking in the analysis thread about the "public tête-à-tête."

Seriously...how old are these people?

We probably don't need to ask one of the few women who post regularly in this forum to be our mother, but maybe that's just me.

Is there like a fund we can put together to pay Mappy? Or like a plaque or something? The amount of work she did to keep that pbp readable in just the 20 minutes I looked away...

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sounds like there are a lot of interesting anniversaries this week.

 

a) the one you mentioned

b) the 100th anniversary of the 1922 Knickerbocker storm (January 28th-29th)

c) the 250th anniversary of the fabled Washington/Jefferson storm...(sometime between January 26th-29th, 1772)

 

Very interesting to have all that... and here we are tracking something again on the same days, lol Meaning? We shall see...

I think it might just be that we're entering prime climo for our snowstorms. I think you could go any week between now and President's Day and find a few good storms to throw in there. 1/25 was the super bowl storm in 87, 1/26 is Commutageddon, 2/6 is Snowmageddon, 2/9 is the second blizzard, 2/12 is the Feb 06 snowstorm, 2/13 is the big storm of 2014, and then there's PD I and II of course. Basically--if you want a big'un, now is the time for it.

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

True.  But when it's like 10 posts in a row strung together, it's pretty aggravating, even if each one is short.  Maybe that's an exaggeration on my part, but I have seen that, several posts one after another.

10 posts in a row + people quoting his posts and piling on with the same sentiments...really makes the threads unreadable. 

And you're right, I shouldn't hope for a total whiff. Maybe just a Leesburg local minimum, then 

Honestly at this point I'm hoping this teases us right up until gametime and then is a complete whiff just because it might finally break that guy. Worst member of this forum, honestly.

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can't we go old school and just call it a Nor'easter? For some reason I see 3 maps of Miller systems with the header "We're the Millers" and its a trainwreck

Maybe the classifications aren't as relevant the further north you go, but I do think they provide helpful information on the potential evolution of the storm at our latitude and can give us clues to things the models may be "missing" that would have impacts on our weather. I don't mind the discussion between model runs, at least...

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And all of this...started with an provoked remark of which I have no clue what, if anything, I said wrong this time. But after a couple responses I just stepped back and watched it disintegrate, lol

You didn’t say anything wrong. I hope you don’t dwell on what you did or didn’t say—that guy wanted to be a jerk, and he took it out on you. 

6 hours ago, yoda said:

*Ji* 00z GFS just took away 19 inches of my snow */Ji*

Prescient. You should consider getting a lottery ticket too!

it’s a real shame that putting him on ignore doesn’t actually matter because people keep giving the attention he’s so desperate for. 

11 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

It's a humbling reminder of how poor many drivers in this area are - that they feel the need to put out a "Percent Chance of 0.1 Snow" product.   

Lol every WFO has this product, it has nothing to do with their assessment of how the public handles snowfall. For example, here's NWS Binghamton: 

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one. 

I mean I guess the question is (and this is true of everyone in this thread right now), what exactly are your goalposts? Have you shifted from a potential 20” snowstorm to a moderate 5-10” snowstorm? And where? Or are you arguing that there will be no snow at all? And also…where? What exactly does waiving the white flag mean to you, so that others can actually respond to what you mean?

This isn’t to call you or anyone out specifically, but this is kind of the problem with these discussions. It happened last week, too. Models shifted from a major snowstorm and people “threw in the towel” and others said it was ridiculous to throw in the towel but I don’t think anyone had any sense of what other people were arguing for or against, and it makes these threads pretty unreadable during events like this.