Ridingtime

I ended up driving north toward Glendale AK from Dallas the day of the eclipse. Was a stressful ride because we were in clouds most of the trip but it then cleared up and we settled on the side of the road surrounded by hills, all by myself with my daughter throughout it. Was unforgettable, amazing, hard to describe in words what I witnessed. I might have even burst into tears when I took off the glasses to see totality for the first time. 

Anyways, despite the cloudiness it seemed that the weather worked out for most of the big cities in totality. Even my aunt in Austin saw it, and they were predicted to be largely in heavy low cloud cover. What an experience - considering chasing the next one in Spain.

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Looks worse for Texas today. Glad I switched to northern Arkansas for now.

I’ve been so bummed about these trends with TX. About to finally be in Dallas and now considering a long drive early Mon morning northward into Arkansas. Dreading the traffic though for the way back.

For what it’s worth, things are definitely trending better if you follow these maps that I posted here for Dallas, TX. Yesterday cloud cover was at 75% and now it’s down to 48% and the blue is inching closer. Hopefully this keeps up

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu.

Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again)

Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below)

Eclipses come in series called a Saros. @LibertyBell asked about return time. A saros repeats every 18 years, but it's a third of the way around the Earch. In 54 years it returns approximately to the same place, but a little farther west. This 2024 eclipse is the same saros that brought the East Coast an eclipse in 1970. Our 2017 was from a different saros. The good news is several of these saros/series is going. Earth gets an eclipse every few years somewhere. (Source 2 below)

Finally @Ridingtime welcome back to the States for this! Do you have a car, chase partners, or otherwise ability to move? Ohio Valley to Northeast US might not bust, but it's still a week out. This is the 06Z GFS, the most optimistic of the 3 today. Valid time is past Totality, but the 18Z presentation is messy due to lower sun-angle. (I guess the chart integrates previous 3 hours. Because 18Z sun angle is higher than 21Z, but they present more W/m2 at 21Z and a cleaner chart.)

Source/Book 1: Total Solar Eclipses of the Sun by Mabele Loomis Todd
Source/Book 2: The Sun's Heartbeat by Bob Berman, Eclipse chapter
Gotta read up to get pumped up!

Thanks Jeff! So it will just be me and my 12 year old daughter - will be renting a car from DFW and should be mostly mobile around TX. We arrive the Thurs before, stay the weekend in Dallas, was then planning on stopping through Waco where I was born to revisit my oldest roots, and then head down to Austin Sun night to stay by my Aunt. In the morning, the hope is that we then all can head a bit west together toward a location more ideal within the path of totality. But now...

I don't know what to do. I have a brother in law who owns a lake house in the Adirondack mountains by Tupper Lake up in north NY, which is currently in a location that seems most ideal for sun and in the path of totality. Should I reroute everything and go up there? Should I miss out on seeing my home town, visiting family that I am closer to - all to head north for a solar eclipse? Or maybe there will be SOME part of TX somewhere along the totality line that will have sun and I'll somehow just chase that? Gah, the whole thing is maddening right now - and the only comfort I can take is that we are still a ways out and things can change. What would any of you say regarding the chances for the chances for changes at this point? Help a flustered guy out here lol

17 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Um, if I'm reading this correctly, hope is fleeting for the whole US eclipse corridor with the exception of upper tier New York. The darker the color the better chance for clouds. Both the Canadian and American 10 day models, which I've been following for almost the past week, flipped and are now showing better than 50% cloud cover for the area that I'm focused on... western New York. Buffalo NWS stretched out their 7 day disco with the following...

"Mainly dry weather will return late Friday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend as a stout omega blocking pattern looks to set up across the Lower 48, with deep troughing lingering off the East Coast and western CONUS and a stout ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will also bring about a strong warming trend to the forecast area into next week, with seasonable temps Saturday warming to above normal by Sunday.

While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. FAR too early to give any semblance of an accurate sky cover forecast at this point, though cloud cover on Monday will likely hinge on how quickly the aforementioned omega blocking pattern begins to break down early next week."

Oh crap, you’re right

Gah, I totally read it wrong. Ok *deep breath*…. it’s still 8 days out, hopefully this is enough time for things to change 

I am flying in from Jerusalem, Israel to TX to see this (where I am from originally) so to say that I am invested in this is an understatement. Latest GEFS run is giving me some hope:

Hey everyone, watching this storm from Israel and trying to vicariously enjoy the snow through all the posts. Does anyone have high resolution live webcams they can send over?

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Riding time is a wrestling term.

Oh huh had no clue. For me it’s just a reference to how we are all riding time, a bit deep lol 

15 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Have a good trip.  Did you wrestle for Israel internationally?

Hmm nope lol, not a wrestler here. What made you think so?

Nice surprise snow here in Boston/Brighton area. Coated everything. Looks like it’s slowing down but much appreciated before I head back to Israel tomorrow, especially when yesterday I thought I completely missed seeing snow here  

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

how long are you here for?  might get some next week

Just till Sunday, quick trip

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Am yisrael chai!

May snow be the only thing falling from the sky in Jerusalem, this winter.

Amen! I’m actually tracking a potential snow storm there for next weekend. Praying, snow there is usually incredible

I’m in Boston visiting from Israel. Please tell me some flakes, any flakes, make their way up here some time today lol

The eye is has cleared out quite obviously to get that classic major hurricane eye shape. This is happening at the worst possible time, plus the latest GFS run - God help NOLA

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope all is well with you in Israel.

Here is a link to the Times Square webcam. With the lighting, one can see the first snowflakes of the forthcoming storm already swirling about.

Stay well.

 

Thank you Don, this looks great and I appreciate the kind response. 

Would you also happen to know of a similar webcam that would show things from a more grassy open area with the same sort of quality?

I’m watching from Israel, enjoy it guys! Can anyone please link me to some high quality webcam streams that I can having going on my computer to stare at all day? Thanks!

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

are you a shark

Explain the question plz 

I’m just here hoping for a positive Josh update and the whole place has gone to shit lol