rockchalk83

We finished with 7" officially at Eisenhower National Airport (ICT). I measured 7.5" outside of my house. Not the 12-20" that were progged Thursday night, but still a solid storm system with about 1/2 inch (liquid equivalent) of much needed moisture.

I will say, the HRRR has been absolute trash this whole time.

Farther west in SC KS, the snow has persisted most of the day, when models had shown a period of dryness. Call me crazy, but I think that bodes well for us when the main energy emerges later this evening and into Sunday morning.

Feels like Lucy pulled the football back on us in S KS overnight. We went from sharing in the big totals with you guys to the southeast, to having 6-8 inches. Hoping for a slight northward trend, but I think the models finally have a good grasp on the Arctic air and track of the second wave, so it probably won't happen. Bummer.

That's the million dollar question. I wonder if @andyhbor @JoMowould be able to shed some light on this?

This is the 01z 72-hour 50th percentile snowfall off the National Blend of Models. This is a significant bump up from the 19z run. The red area is 24-30 inches NW of OKC, the reddish orange area is snow totals of 18-24 inches, orange is 12-18. Goodness.

The huge upshot to all this is that there will be some significant drought relief.

This is the 19z 72-hour mean snowfall off the National Blend of Models. There has been a bump up of this as we've gone through the day. The red area is snow totals of 18-22 inches, orange is 12-18.

That's fair. Forgive me, but I haven't been looking up there. I've been too busy rooting for the NAM. Haha

Here is the Wichita NWS office's forecast:

There was? The 18z still pumped out close to one foot here in Kansas:

That's a CYA forecast if I've ever seen one....

Good morning! The GFS took all of the dropsonde data from the Hurricane Hunters and finally caught up to the Euro. GFS AI & Ensembles also support liquid equivalent moisture over 1/2 inch for most of the area. Here is the 06z operational output: Here is the 06z NAM, too.

This is the 50th percentile 72-hour snowfall off the 19z National Blend of Models. It takes into account the entire non-AI model suite and is what forecasters with the NWS have been using as part of their watch/warning decision process.