TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

Anyone know what the Para does in Raleigh at 18z?

About 2 inches here in Garner. That is where NWS predicted snow totals would be. Could have been a much bigger storm but I will take my couple of inches and be happy. Congrats to all the snow locations.

Snow is sticking now. Ground almost covered here in Garner. Wow. Didn't expect it this early on.

Just now, Tar Heel Snow said:

Been coming down awhile and none of the snow is sticking, I imagine that’s because it’s 36°?

And ground temps. Not sure what the heck the NWS is talking about in Snownado's post. 

Just now, downeastnc said:

HRRR still pounds....these numbers are best case I think but still....

 

Is that all on the ground? Or is that with melting due to ground temps?

Why are they lowering totals? It is snowing here in Garner already. What do they see? Ground temps?

Snowing in Garner, near Clayton. Wow.

Changeover to snow looks like it is beginning a little earlier in NC. Looking at radar trends. Just an opinion though.

I believe I am seeing some small snow flurries in Garner, near Clayton. Hmmm.

Sleet in Garner. I could've sworn I seen some flakes mixed in.

Temps are 45 here near Garner, NC. No rain yet.

Just now, HKY_WX said:

I think the only way we get to the RDPS or higher is if we find ourselves in this banding that will setup tonight. It will likely setup east of Raleigh, but if it were to setup over us, that could be a game changers. This is all due to the PJ wave diving in behind, giving some last minute life to the SLP/atlantic fetch.

Thanks for the information. I am south of Garner, near Clayton. Models appear to have RDU area in at least 3 inches, so who knows.

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method:

15z HRR = 2.2

12zGFS = 1.8

12zNAM = 3.5

RDPS = 5.9

 

Average = 3.3 inches at RDU

That seems the most likely, since we will need to waste QPF for a change over to snow.

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Nam cut back again on totals.. again. 

It was over amping things

Sure is a lot of irritated weather weenies on tonight. Filling the main storm thread with banter. Typical of how things go down in the Carolinas. This thread is about to become majestic.

2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

 

Went up in some spots! 

Overall, less snow than 18z. It doesn't mean it didn't increase in spots.

1 minute ago, SnowDeac said:

Dude, you can be really insufferable. By far the most negative poster on here it seems. 

Just not sugar coating it and enough experience to know how this story usually plays out in C and E NC. Sorry, I thought we were sharing model runs and discussing possibilities. I did post the increased GEFS members at 18z if you look back in the storm thread.

Just now, CntrTim85 said:

No it didn't. 

Yes, it did. Compare 18z to 0z. Snow totals were cut some.

GFS seemed anemic at 0z. Radar trends say otherwise. Can we avoid the cold rain? Stayed tune.

GFS cut snow totals even further. Hmmm. It did extend it some for those in N GA and NW SC.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

HRRR QPF

A MET said it never develops a low off the coast and therefore too dry and too warm. I am not sure if that is entirely the case or not.

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Next time I will lie and say the model looked great 

Looked great, especially for NW NC. Epic run. Also, great run for Charleston. It was epic to see that much fall in Columbia. Everyone gets snow 

42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s warmer and rain for everybody! Sincerely,Tarheelprogrammer and Packgrad05

Is it all rain? A cold rain? So, those maps were showing cold rain accumulations?

NAM is cutting totals, but props to it for possibly having the right solution over several top models. I will no longer question the validity of it going forward. It is a model that cannot simply be tossed to the side. It seems to finally be coming into line with the QPF of the other models, but it was right about snow chances it appears.

1 minute ago, ragtop50 said:

Funny, all of the analysis I have seen so far say it is colder

It is warmer at the start but stays about the same overall, which is impressive. The QPF is going down down baby, yo street.........nvm.

Likely will full go to the global models with snow totals, which is about where most METs have it. Shocker that the experts might have gotten this one right (sarcasm).