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WSchew

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Posts posted by WSchew

  1. 52 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    How in the world is it not snowing right now across the triad and points west?  Radar looks plenty solid for a snow shower?

    Pretty classic virga signature from FCX. Notice how there’s nothing really showing up over Surry, Stokes and Rockingham counties but then radar returns magically appear in the counties just south of there?Well the FCX radar dome already sits about 2800’ elevation, so about 2000’ above the Triad. If you incorporate 0.5 deg tilt, the beam height over the Triad is roughly 7000’ above the ground. This reduces to about 6000’ as you move north into those VA border counties. So, this is telling us the flakes are falling, but sublimating in a dry layer between 6k-7k feet. Pretty typical with NW flows.

  2. Pretty nice stretch of below freezing temps imby so far this year. Average of these is 29.6, which is roughly the seasonal average thru the period.

    1-Jan 36.7
    2-Jan 37.0
    3-Jan 39.0
    4-Jan 31.3
    5-Jan 30.7
    6-Jan 29.7
    7-Jan 25.2
    8-Jan 33.3
    9-Jan 28.2
    10-Jan 24.3
    11-Jan 26.6
    12-Jan 30.0
    13-Jan 23.5
    14-Jan 31.6
    15-Jan 28.4
    16-Jan 28.2
    17-Jan 25.2
    18-Jan 27.0
    19-Jan 25.9
  3. 30 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

    Still got a lazy eye on what passes through Thursday. That is a perfect example of an event that could jump north quickly.

    Agreed. Looks like the latest NAM suite is spitting out mostly virga over NC piedmont on Thursday morning. Very dry 925 layer. 2m temps around 40. 2m dew point in the mid 20s. Wet bulb around freezing. A little juice and we could see a sleet pellet or two.

  4. Radar is filling back in over Triad. Mix of very light rn/ip/sn starting to fall. Similar to 9-11am this morning, I expect some decent rates between 3-5pm but would be surprised to see any accumulation. I don’t see why RAH is holding onto WSW here, but here’s to hoping...

  5. 5 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

    Too bad we don't have many posters from Wilkes county anymore.  That band seems to have been sitting over them for hours.

    WXII had a reporter out there off 421 in N Wilkesboro for the afternoon newscast. Looked like moderate snow, but barely had a dusting in the grass, wet roads. However, radar returns have picked up a bit since then with the ULL moving overhead.

  6. TWC veryyy bullish on amounts in NW NC and SW VA... I feel it would be a sin to post the map, but they have a large swath of 3-5” along and north of i40 (including the entire triad) and a band 1-3” roughly between i85 and i40. They sure have a way of over-hyping a storm at this range...

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  7. Low of 31.6 here on the west side of Winston. Enough for a glaze on anything elevated, probably 0.05” in the higher tree tops. Drove up 52 to the NW corner of Forsyth for lunch and there was about 0.10”, but with more even distribution. Always interesting to see the variation in ice accrual with just minor elevation changes (50-100ft) in these borderline events.

  8. Looking at the near term...


    3k NAM is hinting at flakes with the disturbance late Thursday morning. Looks to be confined north of i40/421 from Boone spreading down into the Piedmont to about GSO. Surface temps in the mid 30s, so I doubt any accumulation. Continued support from some of the globals and the last frame of the RGEM. CMC has been hell bent on this for a few days now, but it pushed precip further up into VA on the latest run.

    Something else to track at the very least.

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  9. Elevated t-storms and the temperature inversion caused lots of loud thunder last night. The sound waves were bouncing around like a pinball machine between cold air at the surface and the warm layer aloft. Up to 40 degrees this morning, lets see if the wedge holds.

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