TampaMan

You folks down past New Kent towards Hampton Roads enjoy. I won’t say you deserve it because you’ve had higher totals than RVA has in recent years but I will root for you if we can’t get it. I do think VA Beach will have issues with high totals. They always do.

Where you are you are more likely to see the 5-7 inch mean.

I’m not well versed or educated enough to make a prediction like that. I don’t think it’ll happen but it certainly is possible. I’d say a 1/10 chance (goes in line with the high end total map from the NWS). I think we can comfortably expect 3-5 with pockets of 6 towards the eastern counties in Richmond. Towards Petersburg to Williamsburg expect 6-8 inches. Hampton Roads, Norfolk and VA beach can expect up to 10 inches but I think 8-9 is likely the sweet spot. Mixing could become an issue down there if the low gets closer to the coast like it appeared to do in the 0z NAM. The ULL will occur it’s just a matter of if the atmosphere will still be saturated enough, how quickly it arrives and how long it stays. If it sticks around for 2-3 hours fully expect another half inch to an inch and a half depending on rates. We aren’t getting the MECS or HECS we all wanted but we are indeed getting measurable snow. Many of us will likely have a half day tomorrow with the possibility of Thursday being a remote day or day off.

I think I speak for a good amount of us when I say we will gladly take 4-5 inches in a heart beat. That will be the highest QPF storm this season. On top of that everything will be stuck to, everything.

If I’m being honest, everyone here around RVA should be happy we’re very likely to get 3 inches. Over an 80% chance.

Take a look at the moisture out west and the gulf. If they could meet in the middle this would be a HECS. There is a possibility that this could still go boom. I think WTVR, WRIC and DT are betting on that.

He’s one of us. Excuse him. GET BACK TO THE THREAD CONWAY! QUICK!!

I think it has issues with the mountains. I think that giant dry slot in the middle of the system won't occur either.

NAM won't show that like other models will for whatever reason. It will come through.

The NAM is better than the HRRR.

This is also before the ULL. Add on another .5 - 1 inch and you have your total at a 13:1 ratio. 5-7 is very much in the playbook according to the NAM and HRRR.

I'd be willing to bet that precip that is purple up north ends up being right around Richmond.

NAM jumped the totals roughly an inch or so over the area.

NAM overall isn't much different than the 18z. DT was insane to think otherwise. The precip is a hair more North.

For north of Fredericksburg, yes. Central / SE VA still have 0.3 - 0.7 QPF at likely 13:1 ratios.

I’m not so sure if these totals are taking account for a higher ratio or not. I imagine they’re based on 10:1 ratios.

Courtesy of @RIC Airport Average is 4.6 between all models. These are based off of the 18z.

FWIW the HRRR is much juicier.

Whatever falls will be snow and stick immediately, so we have that going for us. Just need it to fall for at least 6 hours and we will produce.

We will be okay in Richmond. We will see measurable snow. Not 6 inches but I have to still go with my final call of 3-5 because that is my final call but my gut really tells me 1-3 inches. I think @RIC Airport agrees.

I honestly couldn’t get amped if I lived down there. Whenever it does snow it all blows away 2 hours later.

SREF says no to essentially everyone. Even Hampton Roads get significantly less.

See my comment. Ratios will not be 10:1. Likely will be 13:1 or up to 15:1.

I want to point out that this is a 10:1 ratio map. While yes, the totals did decrease a bit we will still be looking at a 13:1, 14:1 or 15:1 ratio. Therefor that 3.3 inches over Richmond could be 4.5-5 inches.

If I’m not mistaken aren’t the 12z and 0z models the most reliable? 06z and 18z have always been steps in between the 12 o’clock hours.