RevWarReenactor

Remembering 10 yrs ago. 
 

Back when winter was a thing

too bad about mappy. Probably abusive and threatening behavior by someone here who got butthurt over a disciplinary action. 

it does go both ways though as I have seen certain mods abuse their position to talk to members like scum and then hide behind their position. 

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Essentially we have broken and dull tools at our disposal.

Active weather sells. All media types know that. They hype it.  Then the hype spreads to “well we know what these indexes WILL do…oh, there’s a new index to try on”

Humility works and bombast declarations don’t.  The pronounced /hyped “mid to late Feb” was a travesty of misdiagnosis and arrogance .  Instead of reality too many wishes are presented as likely occurrent reality.  And the reality never arrives because it’s Always “15+ days away”

I said in December the delaying pattern we were  developing Had to change or we were in trouble . Much crying and chastising over that. 
I was right

We need  a new and different boat to float with. 

 

Exactly! Well said!

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

to be fair, maybe they don’t have any good answers as to why the projected blocks vanished into thin air (literally). All we have is theories and poor LR model performance. My own theory is that the marine heat wave off Japan disrupted the wave train downstream, breaking up any attempt for the aleutian low to form and sustain itself, and also pushing the pac jet northward effectively broke up the blocks. 

Thats fair. I have no issue with discussion on what might have happened or maybe they don't know.

The problem I have is when METS fall into the JB trap of making overhyped declarative statements like "its going to get cold" "Only a could more weeks until an epic pattern" "things look amazing" etc. They stick to their guns so hard that some belittle the naysayers (like me) who turned out to be 100% correct. We are not even allowed to panic in the panic room, we are just being too "negative" when again, we were 100% correct.

Then when so called "Epic" pattern doesn't materialize. They simply move on. Nothing to see here! It was just an "idea" and not a forecast! Like you seriously believed us LOL? Who even looks at LR forecasts anyway? Who even trusts that?

Then the cherry on top is claiming that they are rooted in "science" when the entire LR thread the last few weeks was essentially a story of fiction. 

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a science/fact based forum. Ones 'beliefs' aren't necessarily relevant if there is no scientific basis.

We spent weeks and weeks posting tons of maps and analysis about a late Feb “epic” pattern that was totally fictional. Not only was it fictional; but we are literally in the 50’s and 60’s with rain into Canada. I’m just not seeing any science behind any of this. I am also not seeing much “ Mea culpa” and pause being given into how wrong it at was and learning from it to forecast better in the future. That frustrates me how Mets are just so wrong and move on like they didn’t make major mistakes.. 

It’s weird how the long range guidance gets it so wrong. Not only was there no “”epic pattern” as advertised. But temps are in the 50’s and 60’s. Essentially a torch. You might need to go to the north Pole for snow. It’s not even close. In my opinion: It should make people question the validity and point of LR tracking. 

Really we had one good week this year and it was basically just a broken clock being right twice a day. 

There is another window in Mid to late March.

Its coming guys. Epic pattern change. Just need patience.

7 hours ago, T. August said:

Not even an inch in Havre de Grace. I had 2” as a benchmark after all of the negative guidance came in and figured that would be realistic. Nope.

Snowing lightly still.

The bay hurts you. Not much better here…. But I swear I hit the hatem bridge and the thermometer on my car often jumps 2 degrees on winter mornings. Common occurrence.  

Might have been okay. If it stuck to the street. Once again another half a storm with no street stickage. This never use to be something so consistent. Yawn. 
 

Why does nws still have this up? Do they enjoy humiliation? Anyway another event that pood the bed. I’m seriously starting to think we never see winter here again to any great degree

I wake up. Hrrr was right and maybe aggressive. As expected marginal temps, melting,  bad precip orientation. 
 

33 degrees a dusting in grass. G’night

I think you all need to be careful on some of those radar images a lot of those radars overhype precip and show virga. This one below is rather good I find and it sadly is very hrrr esk 

i find the precip orientation to be problematic. Just look at it! I find temps to be a problem for initial stickage in the cities. 
 

We will snow but there is no question in my mind that we significantly underperform nws totals. 
 

2 hours ago, Steve25 said:

Yes, you're right. This storm is debatable, but I think there's a solid case for the 3+, especially considering there's a WSW. I'm absolutely not calling myself a winner. I feel like I more lucked out with this one. 

Well hey, I hope you are able to enjoy whatever we do get tonight. Hard to think there is too many punches left for winter to throw. 

 

Thanks you too….!

I tend to agree on winter. This might be it. Bottomline is- it’s just not cold. This storm tonight is pure luck on timing and even then temps are iffy. 

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t you like to measure in the street? 

Yes

54 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Should we call this a draw? We got to the 15th, and there are things to track within 6 days that have legitimate 3 inch potential for BWI, so by technicality I'd win the bet. Honestly, though, the pattern is NOT what it was being hyped up to be over the past few weeks, which was your reasoning behind making the bet. I'm willing to void it. How do you feel? 

That was kind of where my head was with it perhaps. I guess technically speaking you might have won  by the skin on your teeth. Although it could potentially be debated as to whether this qualifies as a 3+ inch storm to track since models are both above and below that mark at times. Could go either way I guess. But the overall pattern certainly did not evolve as planned. So I’m good with a draw! Thanks for the bet! It was fun! 

41 minutes ago, T. August said:

3k is warm… 33° during the heaviest for the cities. 

33 at night I think its okay. Anything more than that, Id be concerned. But we can do 33.

Coudl potentially be the biggest snow of the year for some. We had 4.2 on Jan 19, 2024. Could beat that.

Whats up with the HRRR? Its all north and stuff, has the old screw job precip orientation where it is snowing in Massachusetts before DC. Only 1-2 for DC, Central Jersey is 4-6. Strange.

13 minutes ago, T. August said:

Lol 2016 I got fringed hard. About 20” here with 36” in Bel Air.

Only 12 inches from that here in Newark Del. I think we got the minimum for that storm. 

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Did he throw his eggs at you..or the waitress

 

No-but you are on the right track.

Let me just say my experience with Dave is that he is actually MORE unhinged in person than he is online. I might not want to say more out of thread derailment and that is known to threaten litigation of things said about him.

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

You had breakfast with DT? 

Yes- at the eastern conference in 2009.

I met JB over 20 years ago. He use to have these "gatherings" which were super weird. He'd just put in his accuweather blog "I am going to be at restaurant XYZ at 10am on Saturday". Like 50 weather weenies just showed up at a restaurant, ordered nothing. And he'd walk in 30 mins late, rant about how winter was coming and all this BS for about 20 minutes and then he'd leave. There was a certain celebrity status amongst the weenies over his presence. I guess I was part of that. I got my photo with him. He saw I was young and asked what college I went to, I stumbled because of nerves and when I did answer he thought I was lying. He gave me a weird look. Even my Dad who was present was like "he thought you were lying". 

Decades later I've come to realize how ridiculous it all was. 

Also ask me about the time me and DT went to breakfast in Rhode Island at an Eastern conference. Just me and him. That was something.....let me tell you. 

On 1/29/2024 at 1:38 PM, RevWarReenactor said:

Go look at the thread I posted. We were tracking a brief reset after the last 2 storms and then a good pattern setting in; early Feb. Now its post Feb 14th.

Want to make a bet? We meet back here Feb 15th. No snow between now and then, and you will be tracking a "good pattern" in late Feb/ Early March. (which also won't happen)

How much do you want to bet?

Ouch. Believe me I take no joy in being right.

But climo is climo. 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Or off your insecurities 

Back on Feb 1st I said there would be no epic pattern change and that we'd be sitting here on Feb 15th with the same old same.

I was right, the entire model thread full of experts and mets was wrong.

That is really all you need to know honestly. 

19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No need for me to look at models I suppose. Crystal ball?

LR modeling has be atrocious at best. Far better accuracy just looking at climo and making a forecast off that.