StormChazer

Here is the Euro Ensemble mean.

That's some great agreement right there amongst the 50 runs.

Here's all 50 members.

4 days out with tight model agreement yielding high snow totals is about best case scenario at this stage of the game.

If these stay in agreement for the next 24-36 hours, then at that point I think we can safely say we have a big one on our hands. But I think at this point it's not a stretch to assume that we WILL get snow, just how much?

Euro.

Here's the GFS to drool over.

The lift this run generates is off the charts.

This GFS run is going to have some HIGH totals in it.

The 06Z Euro run doesn't go out past 90 hours, so can't tell anything yet on the operational. However, the control run of the 06Z Euro goes out 144 hours. FWIW, the control run of the 06Z euro puts down more snow and has the storm track slightly further north than the control run of the 00Z Euro. So we will see if that trend is reflected in the 12Z operational run today.

Might be a sign of the models consolidating even more.

Here is what I'm talking about.

00Z Euro Control

06Z Euro Control

All three major players are now in agreement of this storm dropping significant snowfall in our area for this storm 4 days out, can’t get much better if you’re a snow lover at the moment. 
still have to refine the track of the low, which inevitably means someone will go from excited to disappointed, but will that be someone to the south, north or east or west? Either way. Feeling good about this at the moment.

BIG fan of that Euro run.

Maybe another quick burst of snow Sunday morning? Hoping something comes of the 25th.

Anyone been able to find an official or preliminary snowfall amount list?

Looking forward to seeing the totals to see how accurate the kuchera Vs 10:1 ratio faired. I’d say here in north Owasso, we probably got 2-3 inches, but it’s hard to tell since it’s wind blown. 
Overall, I’m happy. I think up here we will get a “white Christmas”.

More snow squall warnings going out just to the north of Tulsa. Have to watch the back end of this system to see if it swings into Tulsa. 

Don’t see snow squall warnings this close to home often….so far the roads have iced up here in Tulsa and there’s very light blowing snow, waiting for the main even to see how much we get.

Recent runs of the HRRR are fixated on having sleet stick around in Tulsa for the first few hours of the event. Can’t say I agree with that.

You all are most certainly right, but I'm going to be stubborn and continue posting kuchera amounts because a man can dream, haha.

Speaking of, here is the latest NAM, definite uptick in amounts.

I feel as if a picture is beginning to be painted.

All 3 of the global models(including the morning run of the Euro) have inched their way back into the Tulsa metro area and upped amounts in AR.

Also the 12Z run of the HRRR supports this (fwiw). Only the NAM is being a downer on this.

This is such a fine line between the have and have nots.

Someone here is going to get a technical white christmas(1 inch on the ground at 7AM Christmas Day).

At this point, it comes down to when the storm actually forms and starts moving through, then we will know who gets lucky with a moderate band of snow and who doesn't, that will make all the difference as I think this will be a hit or miss kind of situation.

Also, gotta watch out for some brief sleet and freezing rain as the front is moving through, might make roads slick.

Still think I can squeeze 2 inches out here in north Tulsa county.

00Z Euro.

Definitely trended back to be a little more favorable for all of us. Looks like I might get that 30 mile shift I was hoping for earlier today.

Evening euro trending in our favor.

The latest GFS brings us a little more hope.

As does the Hi res Canadian.

1 hour ago, MUWX said:

I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically. 

Normally I don't since people tend to use Kuchera as hopium or for shock value, but I feel like these temps truly warrant it. I feel like it would be more accurate than using a base 10:1, even if it's still blown out of proportion a bit.

Speaking of, here is the latest NAM.

I'm not asking for 10 inches here in North Tulsa, I'd be happy with 3-4(heck 2 at the rate it's going).

Just need a 30 mile shift south. I don't feel like that's egregious to ask for at this stage of the game, still possible...

Slight southern shift on the 06Z Euro run FWIW.

What’s odd is to my unprofessional eye, the gfs diggs south and west a touch more and yet the precip shifted considerably north. Want to see the ensembles and see if this winds up being an outlier.