StormChazer

FWIW, the 18Z Euro is a little slower with Friday’s storm  than on the 12z. But it doesn’t go out far enough to see the output.

Curious if the 12z follows suit.

Would love to get a surprise inch of snow in Tulsa tomorrow morning.

36 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

That is some cold air that snow will be falling into on Monday morning according to the 18z GFS. 

Yeah, those are some high ratios.

Not sure what the math is, but I’d say 15-20:1?

I’m sad. But I’ll never learn.

ONTO THE NEXT ONE! SUN-TUES next week.

Euro out here breaking hearts.

I’ll post some member data when it comes out to see what the story is.

The Canadian actually did inch more toward the GFS. Not drastically, but it did.

Didn’t love last night’s Euro.

But the gfs didn’t budge this morning. Sticking to its guns.

FWIW. The Canadian ensembles don’t agree much with the actual run.

I can’t post at the moment, but the original run shows nothing, up to a dusting for most of our forum area.

The ensembles show about 2.5 inches for all of us. Which, for an ensemble average, 5 days out, is pretty decent.

So I’m going the Canadian goes south again with plenty of energy.

Staying up for the euro but I’m tired haha.

GFS.....I don't buy the ice though, it mitigates the snow output and still dumps prolific amounts.

Tuttle had a pretty solid analysis today.

It’s essentially the UKMET, GFS, ICON & Climate models vs the Canadian and Euro for Friday.

The next 24 hours should really start to develop some sort of trend I think.

Euro combined with the Canadian run are reminding me that nothing is set in stone(even though I already knew that lol).

Still decent snow on this run from the euro if you check the kuchera(will be 14 degrees and snowing in Tulsa).

6-9 inches in Tulsa.

43 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

It’s so nice to know other people go through this. Most people just don’t understand weather model addiction. The worst part is when someone wants to make small talk about the weather and I want to do a frame by frame breakdown of why everything they just said was completely incorrect. 

YES! THIS!! Someone says, “oh my app says it’s going to snow in a few days”. Meanwhile, you’ve obsessed run after run for the last 5 days in said storm and know the latest and greatest, but because their app says so, you don’t really know that much more than them.

My pet peeve has always been the nay sayers…you tell them there’s a good chance of snow, with your hours of researching, and they just say, “it’s not going to snow, it’s been too warm.” And then they just accept it as fact.

Makes me want to scream.

I physically can’t help myself. No matter how many times I’m let down, I’m like an addict needing their next fix.

Because eventually it’ll pan out, and that feeling of hype and it coming to fruition will be unmatched.

That being said, the GFS is our champion this afternoon.

The Canadian is out to lunch.

Just not looking good for the Monday storm. All models trending to the north.

Latest NAM continues this trend. 
 

just a couple hours away from having the output on the 12x runs for Friday. Very interested to see those.

I don’t have much expectations for this Mon/Tues storm, my eyes are entirely fixed on Friday.

As a resident of NE OK, I’d love for just a slight nudge southward on this track. Last night they nudged north, so hopefully the noon runs can move south by…25, 50 miles. 
Seems like every system so far this winter has just grazed us to the north. 
I think she could really be the one, mom.

Euro finally biting on next Friday's storm.

GFS

Canadian

Long range GFS wind chill.

Canadian

Underperformer here in Tulsa.

The changeover was brief(maybe 20 min?) and then back to rain. So woke up to nothing here :/

Oh well, hard to be upset when we have the upcoming pattern that we do. Plenty of cold and an active southern jet stream?

Sounds like a recipe for snow/ice to me!

Trends seem to be getting snowier for Tulsa, and NWS keeps moving their snow line in their graphic further and further south.  I wouldn't be surprised if Tulsa and points east are added to the Winter Weather Advisory similar to NW AR.

HRRR being more robust again as we approach the onset.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but some of the models are projecting blizzard criteria conditions for early next week’s storm.

42 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

18z HRRR was pretty juicy.  1-3” inches through OK into Western/NW AR.  

Indeed, and the back side of the low is still moving through the area, dropping maybe another inch. 4 inches on that run for Tulsa.

Model consensus seems to be giving Tulsa around 2-3 inches. No TV Mets really biting on it though(surprisingly).

I think our wet bulb will be low enough that we can accumulate despite ground temps.  I think someone is going to get a surprise half a foot of snow from this, just not sure who. Maybe Stillwater?

All 3 models agreeing on a system swinging through next weekend. Euro and Canadian say snow, GFS says no. Just rain.

GFS continues to bomb out around the 10th with that storm. 

Attention turns to January 9th-11th, looks like a consensus on cold air, now if we could just lock in the GFS at 2 weeks out that would be great, HAH.

Are we taking the gfs and Nam seriously for some Christmas Day snowflakes in Oklahoma?

Wichita seems to have gotten it good today!