StormChazer

06Z Euro, fwiw, does nudge slightly back toward a more favorable setup(emphasis on slight nudge), but still has a ways to go and is still pretty dry.

I think tomorrow, best we will get out of it is a flash freeze on the road from the rain.

9 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Hey Everybody!! Been a long time since we've had something good to watch!! Love reading all your posts! Fingers crossed for Tulsa..we've been screwed the last several years! Don't even get me started on that "Magical Snowless Donut Hole" over Tulsa last year! LOL! (Insert facepalm) Hopefully we can all cash in with the cold air in place over the next few weeks! But Gosh...that 64 degrees outside feels pretty darn amazing right now! RIP to my plants tonight!

I simply will never forget the snow hole for as long as I live. We had someone here from Mexico for work who had never seen snow, and I promised her she would that night. Then the donut happened. 
 

Still, I think the floor on this storm is 2 inches, with a really high ceiling of 10.

22 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

18z GFS and ICON were both better than I expected after the Euro debacle.  We’ll take it for now.  
I know there’s a lot of talk about suppression pushing it further south.  Maybe this does the typical model NW shift???  Although that seems to happen more with cutters.  Overall happy to see models hold steady-ish and give a middle finger to the Euro. 

Preach!!!

Edit: Actually, the icon cut totals by about half and dries up central and west OK.

Tulsa discussion.

”

This storm will
entrain healthy moisture levels for such a cold airmass, setting the
stage for a potentially high impact snow storm for much of the
area.

As the upper level feature approaches it will induce solid mid
level ascent over the area, over the top of an area already seeing
good isentropic lift along the slope of the arctic airmass. Model
guidance generally shows a range of 0.2 to 0.5" QPF. Forecast
soundings show the entire lower atmosphere below 500 hPa in the
DGZ and saturated. These factors should support extreme snow
ratios of 20-1 or so. This certainly suggests the potential for a
high impact snow event of 4" or greater for most of the CWA.
However, the most recent 12z guidance uniformly decreased expected
totals somewhat. In fact the drier models scarcely showed 2" of
snow accumulation for a lot of the area. While impactful, this
would not be nearly as problematic. This leaves us in a watch and
wait position as some of the forecast uncertainties hopefully
decline over the next day or two. With this in mind, anybody
reading this should prepare now for several days of extreme cold
and possibly travel impacts as well.”

Southern shift on the GFS, but still stays with heavy prolonged precip with 8 inches in Tulsa.

Euro makes me very unsettled.

Can only hope that this run was too much in one direction and know it will move back in the other.

I suppose the fact that every other model being in the other camp does help some.

Are we allowed to throw out runs we don't like?

Because the Euro looks terrible.

Big fan GFS, big fan.

9 minutes ago, MUWX said:

SGF zone forecast for Greene county calls for “heavy snow accumulation” Sunday. Don’t recall seeing that before. 

NWS in Tulsa said this.

Snow chances will begin to increase
again during the daytime Sunday as both ensembles and
deterministic models have been fairly persistent showing a couple
of shortwave troughs moving across the Southern/Central Plains
late this weekend and early next week. The first round of snow
arrives late morning/early afternoon on Sunday and lasts through
Sunday night or early Monday morning. Models show another round of
light-moderate snow, associated with a second shortwave trough,
late Monday morning. There is still lots of uncertainty with how
these scenarios will evolve, but confidence has increased some
for a more impactful snow event for Sunday and Monday, especially
for northeast OK and far northwest AR/Ozarks area. Will continue
to closely monitor and update the forecast

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

This looks like it's actually going to come true. Winter Storm Watch for pretty much all of Iowa for this storm that was looking good for us 4 days ago, lol

When you're right, you're right!

27 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Thanks for the info!  What do the Ensembles show for the Friday storm? 

Here is for Friday.

Latest HRRR.

http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/graphicast/image3.png?8af6f02b358198bf541d325736eed16c

Here, have some members.

My breakdown..

Roughly 14 of these models drop 6+ inches of snow here in Tulsa, double that due to ratios.

If one of these solutions pan out, we are looking at some major snowfall, and 28% of the members showing that is nothing to sneeze at.

Am I being a weenie? Yes, but it's backed up by data haha.

Euro Ensembles are in(remember, these are with 10:1 ratios). BIG trend toward a snowier solution for all of us.

First I'll post last night's.

And now this afternoon's.

Euro looks different from previous run, but still outputs a similar solution. Main differences being that the storm is slower by about 6 hours and totals aren't as high in SW MO and central and NW AR. Also Western OK really gets in on the action. Either way, doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the consensus that is developing. A broad area of precip will move over the area and produce good snow thanks to high ratios.

I know we will still wiggle around north and south between now and Sunday, but I feel like this is more or less our solution with some massaging to do. I don't see the snow being pulled out from under our feet with this type of setup.

A delightful 12Z Canadian run as well...

Edit: Canadian and GFS ensembles both coming in wetter.

Here is the 06Z Euro ensembles.

Here was the 12Z Euro ensembles for reference.

24 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

A little concerned the ensembles remain drier than the operational runs and we see a drying trend in the operational models over the next couple of days. Especially with the volume of cold air coming. 

Either way, dangerous weather is coming with the combo of dangerous cold and atleast some snow.

For what it’s worth, the 06Z Euro ensemble trended much wetter than the 0Z. So it increased amounts. I’ll post a map when I’m in front of my computer.

Another meaningful shift on the GFS bringing it more in line with the euro and Canadian. 7-11 inches for most of us.

Canadian with a nice nudge east and increased amounts.

The GFS also has moved east some and increased amounts.

Here is the 50 member avg for the Euro(non Kuchera amounts) for Sun/Mon.

Euro keeps Sunday/Monday event alive and well.(With a nasty ice storm in DFW)

The system doesn't dig as much as the 0Z run, but it doesn't make much of a difference in the output.

Slow moving on this run, so it's nearly 24 hours of snow, in 10 degrees the entire time.

Almost everyone here gets a around a foot(NW AR and SW MO need to take off 3-5 inches from this since it is including Friday's storm.

Beginning to see a trend for Friday's storm. Seems like there might be enough lift and moisture available on the back end of the storm to give us a couple inches, maybe more.

Canadian

GFS

6Z Euro

Woke up to maybe a 1/4-1/2 of snow up here in Owasso. Considering I wrote the storm off a few days ago, it’s a pleasant sight to wake up to. Lots of wrecks occurring in Tulsa as we speak from slick roads.

GFS and Canadian trending slower which brings our chances up on Friday.

Meant to post it earlier, here is the storm track difference in the 12z Euro and 18Z Euro.

12Z

18Z