StormChazer

GFS went a touch cooler than the 12Z run, so there is a cooling trend the last couple runs now.

20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

NWS Tulsa takes the easy road for now.  Can’t say I blame them: 

 

.DISCUSSION...
The most impactful portion of this forecast package occurs on
Friday and Saturday as the potential for wintry weather
continues.

Before we get the winter weather potential, the area will experience
a mostly sunny day on Wednesday with warmer temperatures as
the surface high pressure system over the area Today shifts to the
southeast. Even with the warmer temperatures, readings will be at or
below seasonal normals.

On Thursday, we will see a cold front move through the region with precipitation
developing in the vicinity of the boundary. The precipitation will continue
Friday north of the frontal boundary with strong isentropic lift in place across
the region. The type of precipitation on Friday will be mostly rain with a wintry
mix possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. More of a wintry mix
is expected Friday Night into Saturday as an upper level low moves out of northern
Mexico and across the Southern Plains. The precipitation is expected to transition to
mostly snow as we move through Saturday Night as the upper level low moves over
the area and off to the east. The precipitation is expected to come to an end by
Sunday Morning.

With that said, it is still way too early to focus on exact precipitation types and
amounts as the upper level low that will drive what is expected to happen is still out
over the Pacific Ocean. The forecast will continue to be refined over the next couple of
days.

Haha, I was thinking the exact same thing. This is very much a "I don't want to deal with this until tomorrow, so I'll just insert of bunch of agreeable statements that don't actually clear anything up", and like you said, I really don't blame them one bit lol.

6 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

The NAM just locks in that surface cold layer and never relents with a lot of freezing rain and sleet across central OK. Looks like it wants to drop some heavy snow on top of that just after the end of the run too. Seen many times where the global models scour out the cold air too quickly in these types of events. Even though it is long range NAM, meteorologically speaking, there's no reason for the temps to warm at the surface like the GFS is showing if we keep a continued northerly surface wind and attendant cooler/drier air feed. The NAM just seems more realistic to me.

Had a local met say just about the same thing last night. In a cloudy, northerly wind filled day, that 32 degree line isn't going back up into Kansas, it's sticking around.

Up to hour 84 and the NAM is doing a number on Oklahoma(much of that is sleet).

5 hours ago, StormChazer said:

I went ahead and tallied up the ensembles(not counting control or master) of last night's Euro run.

19 members have Tulsa missing out or getting under 1-2 inches.

12 members put Tulsa RIGHT on that steep gradient(we're talking north Tulsa county gets 8 inches, south Tulsa county gets 1-2 inches), or is within a county away from the high totals.

19 members have Tulsa getting a good dumping of snow.

 

This is the 3rd time I've done this and pretty much we are back to my first analysis where the number was

17

12

21

 

But no doubt we lost some ensembles in the heavy column to the "right on the line" column. 

So the way I see it

38% say heavy snow

38% say little to no snow

24% say within 20 miles you go from no snow to 8 inches. I may be biased because I want this snow, but I feel this category has to lean in the heavy snow category's favor, seeing how cold air tends to spread a little more than models think. I'll do another one of these for the 12Z run today.

 

Here are my findings from this afternoon's run of the Euro.

10 members give little(under 1-2 in) to no snow for Tulsa and surrounding areas.

9 Near misses or right on the steep snow gradient(2 to 8 inches within a span of 20 miles)

31 Heavy snow runs

This is a drastic turn around from last night's euro run both in the master solution and the ensembles.

The way I see it as of right now according to the Euro...

20% of little to nothing

18% RIGHT on the line

62% Good, winter storm warning criteria weather

NAM is coming in a little cooler at hour 39 so far, by about 2 degrees.

Here are the Euro ensembles. I'll post an update on my analysis of them for the Tulsa area in a bit.

I'll post the Euro ensembles here shortly. they're out to hour 48 so far.

For those wondering.

Just now, rockchalk83 said:

It does. There's very little ice on this run of the Euro. There is also a very sharp cutoff to the snow, with much of S KS & S MO missing out on the big accms.

Yeah, it's a good run for OK and AR, not so much KS and MO.

There we go!

1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said:

Looking at the 12z Euro run in real-time and comparing it to the GFS/CMC models...the Euro is farther west with the high pressure, putting it in SW Iowa at 00z Saturday. The GFS/CMC have it over northeastern Iowa at that time. All the models have the high pressure at or near 1038 mb. 

Wouldn't that give us a colder solution?

Saying hi to everyone! Always nice to get more banter in here!

Not that the Canadian is an outstanding model, but it also trended colder and snowier.

So while the GFS did trend slightly colder, it drops much less precip. Interesting.

GFS looks to be coming in a little colder so far.

1 minute ago, Weatherdemon said:

I don't believe so.

They take into account new OBS but I believe that's it.

I suspected as much. Good to know, thanks!

11 hours ago, lovableweatherguy said:

Hello, I'm new to this board. I love in Troy, MO. I follow another board locally. But I noticed that some of those board members are also joined this one. Figured it can't hurt for us weather enthusiasts!

We have also been following this weekend's storm although we believe it will be south of STL MO at this time. Still plenty of time for it to come north though.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

Btw, I never got a chance to welcome you to the boards! I've dabbled in posts here and there in the past, but this is my first real year of posting alot. Any new faces are welcomed!

8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Here’s a temp comparison between the 06 GFS and the 12 NAM:

Hour.              GFS.             NAM

60.                  38.                 35

66.                  35.                 30

72.                  36.                 29

78.                  39.                  31

84.                  37.                  32

 

sorry for the ugly format   Typing on my phone.   

 

It's funny because that doesn't seem like much, but at the same time, that is drastic. Question, do you know if the models in any way play off each other? Like, if the NAM is coming in cold, is there anything in the GFS or Euro's algorithms that take that into account? I would think probably not, as they're entirely separate entities, but it bears asking the question.

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

I couldn’t agree more.  Feb 2011 is a great example of that.  Models and NWS were calling for 2-4 inches.  I ended up with 17 after being under a heavy band for about 3 hours.  I prefer under estimating and then hitting the jackpot.  Although that is rare.  

 

Wow!

So it begins.... here is the NAM at 6PM Friday

Here is the GFS at 6PM Friday

17 hours ago, StormChazer said:

So the following is the 12Z members and what I found for the immediate Tulsa area...

16 members have Tulsa either missing out or under 1-2 inches.

8 members put Tulsa a hair away or right on the line on heavy totals.

26 members dump a heavy swath of snow across Tulsa and surrounding areas.

 

So comparing the two, the biggest difference is that 5 members shifted from the middle and low column to the high column in Tulsa's favor. So I won't really complain too much about this. Lost ground on the master, but gained ground in the ensembles.

 

I went ahead and tallied up the ensembles(not counting control or master) of last night's Euro run.

19 members have Tulsa missing out or getting under 1-2 inches.

12 members put Tulsa RIGHT on that steep gradient(we're talking north Tulsa county gets 8 inches, south Tulsa county gets 1-2 inches), or is within a county away from the high totals.

19 members have Tulsa getting a good dumping of snow.

This is the 3rd time I've done this and pretty much we are back to my first analysis where the number was

17

12

21

But no doubt we lost some ensembles in the heavy column to the "right on the line" column. 

So the way I see it

38% say heavy snow

38% say little to no snow

24% say within 20 miles you go from no snow to 8 inches. I may be biased because I want this snow, but I feel this category has to lean in the heavy snow category's favor, seeing how cold air tends to spread a little more than models think. I'll do another one of these for the 12Z run today.

I've lived in North TX for about 25 years and OK now for 3, and when it comes to winter weather events, they tend to play out nearly identical. I know in my experience, it seems more often that not, that 24 hours or so before the event, everything tends to trend just a little cooler. Probably because the models need to initialize colder and start to pick up on how to handle the cold air just a bit better(which tends to be that it's underestimated the cold air), this usually sees winter storm watches or other advisories bump up an extra line of counties. Once this storm comes on shore, I think we'll get a much better painted picture, and today's NAM runs will be particularly useful since it handles cold air better(the two runs so far have already shown the air is colder than any other models).

I'll say this much, every time I can recall that I've ever received a heavy dumping of snow, it's been when the forecast calls for maybe half that, and then the cold air comes in quicker and doubles our totals out of "seemingly" nowhere. 

I'd love to see the GFS and Euro start a cooling trend today, but frankly, the long range models are always going to struggle with this cold air, it's just the nature of the beast. My eyes are going to start focusing on the NAM here soon.

52 minutes ago, JoMo said:

UKMET is really far south. We'll see is the Euro follows. 

Do these two usually correlate to each other?

Max range on the NAM, so take it for what it's worth, but this certainly is a much colder solution than every other model.