StormChazer

And just like that the GFS and Canadian go playing with my heart. GFS shows Northeast OK getting a couple inches on Sunday, Candian on Monday. Wonder how the Euro will feel about it. Won't surprise me if the Euro stands its ground like it has with this upcoming system(and been right about so far), and then the other come in line with in the next couple days.

That being said, for a system 6-7 days out, I'm surprised to see the two move back into a wetter solution for OK, that hasn't been the pattern this winter. It's just 1 run though. I'm curious what the Euro will say, and then see if there's consistency. 

Canadian and GFS showing some possible snow in NE OK/NW AR/SW MO.

I wouldn't get too discouraged right now, it's still 8-10 days out, I'm more comfortable being outside the bullseye, than in it at the moment. I'm still optimistic about this one(maybe foolishly so, but I'm a glass half full kinda guy).

One thing is for sure, we need moisture, this drought it getting irritating.

8 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I think the system that models were showing on the 28th are now showing for the 2nd. Timing differences. I don't know that but it seems possible 

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. I'm pretty sure this is the same system it was showing earlier, just bumped back a couple days.

GFS

GEM

EURO

I know I'm grasping at straws here, but one of these is bound to pan out, so let's cross our fingers with this one, at least there's a consensus.

I've had to just step back the last week. I tell myself I won't look at the models until I hear the NWS mention something in a forecast discussion, but as a weather enthusiast it's pretty impossible for me to not look at new model runs, lol. So here's to hoping that storm around the 1st does something for us.....but man, we can't buy a a few inches to save our lives right now. That's OK, history is on our side! We are due!

Loving the 06z GFS right now, haha. The Canadian and Euro are picking up on this as well. The Canadian has it further north and faster(so not as heavy rates as we see here on the GFS), and the Euro has it fly up into Wisconsin before it get's organized. But, all three agree on a storm system with cold air on the weekend of Fri the 26th. Still, 8-10 days out.

12 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Is such a true quote there too, it all depends on where you are from and what you grew up around! Me, I grew up on the east coast and then lived in central/northern Missouri most my life so I am use to cold and seeing things stick around for a long time during the winter season. When I lived in south Jersey(grew up there for my first 27 yrs of life) back in the 80's and 90's we would get slammed weekly with giant nor easters that dumped between 8 inches to feet weekly, no kidding. Man if only we had the technology we have now days like digital cameras and palm sized camcorders, I would have some awesome footage/pics for all of you on storms you probably never seen or been part of! So with that said, I would rather have cold stick around and 4"+ to stick around with that cold here.

I have seen some mad march blizzards in Missouri though and do have/shared pics with everyone on here(when we were part of the old forum) of those crazy things where I once saw 26" from one storm in 9 hours or so and just to see it turn to slop and all completely melt off in a day or two lol with temps spiking right back to the 60's. So just maybe we(those of us who havent gotten squat yet lol) can see something in Feb. when its still cold and the sun angle isnt terrible yet. Really do dig your thoughts on all this though, it is kind of how I am....I suck at remembering or understanding model runs so usually I keep notes of every season to compare things(kinda like what you did/have been doing). Ok dont wanna bore everyone with my long winded boring disco's lol.

Very interesting thoughts! I've never had snow stick around more than a few days, maybe 4-5 at the most(ice storm a few years back in the DFW area), I was however in Dallas when we got 12 inches in under 24 hours(Feb 11th, 2010), which, for Dallas, is very impressive. But, it didn't stick around for more than a week. I suppose it's all about perspective and experience. Kinda like when I was a kid and I got into trouble, every once in a while, I got to pick my punishment, get a spanking, or be grounded from something for a week. I chose the flash in the pan option then for the negative, and I'll choose it now for the positive! Haha

Oh, here's a snowfall graphic on the Dallas storm for anyone who cares at seeing those sorts of things.

5 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

I am not sure how much stock I put in the cycle that Gary Lezak and Doug Heady are fans of, but there is some merit behind it. If so, I would imagine that February and March would give us more snow or ice setups. The arctic air would not be as deep and the storm track should lift a bit further north. That would give us some shots. That is, if the pattern is similar. I guess we will see. 

History certainly backs their thoughts too, here's to hoping!

1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

Totally agree with your assessment regarding March.  I've been in this area a long time and some of the more memorable storms have been in early/mid March.  The difference is the snow doesn't usually stick around as long.  Temps usually warm fairly quick after the storm moves east and the sun angle isn't in our favor.  Plus, days start getting longer.  All of that leads to more melting much faster.  So it's a trade-off.  We may get 6 inches +  but it's here and gone within a few days.  

I guess it depends on your preference.  Do you want snow on the ground for longer periods of time or a big dump (and who doesn't love a big dump!  )that doesn't stick around as long.  

Thanks for the research and insight.  Let's all keep our fingers crossed that we have a 45 day period from Feb 1 to March 15 that could pay off.  We only need one monster storm to make us all feel better about life!  Climo is in our favor.  

Dilly Dilly!  

 I have to say, if it's between those two options, I'd rather get 8 inches that melt off in 3 days than 3 inches that stick around for a week, but then again, I'm from Dallas, and heavy dumpings followed by quick melts are pretty much all I've ever known.

Dilly Dilly!

If we look at months since 1950 where Tulsa received heavy snowfall events, here are the results by month.

1950-2017

10+ inches                   

Nov: 1

Dec: 2

Jan: 3

Feb: 3

Mar: 4

April: 0

8+ inches

Nov: 1

Dec: 4

Jan: 4

Feb: 3

Mar: 7

April: 0

6+ inches

Nov: 1

Dec: 7

Jan: 9

Feb: 6

Mar: 10

April: 0

So, with that knowledge, March produces more heavy snowfall events than any other month for Tulsa. Just found this to be a very interesting stat. If Feb doesn't produce, you can bet I'll be hugging this statistic tightly. 

Thanks for all the positive feedback. Yeah, model watching can get so draining after a while, and for someone like me who has a tough time at taking models past a few days worth a grain of salt, I can't help but get my hopes up. That all being said, February and March actually seem to be the most frequent producers of high snowfall according to Tulsa's records, with March particularly throwing out some pretty high numbers. I've got to think that happens when the spring pattern begins to take shape and moisture becomes plentiful, so any cold air shot gives a storm plenty of QPF to work with. Right now, all this cold air is pushing so deep that the atmosphere has been starved of moisture, hence why we keep seeing south TX and the gulf coast throwing out WSW. When the dead of winter begins to retreat some, I think that's when we see our best shot. This weekend is shaping up to look more like a late March pattern with thunderstorms in the forecast, hopefully this bodes well for the coming weeks and we get an extremely juicy storm slam through the area.

12 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I like the research,  tks for sharing.   We are no doubt teetering on the brink of something historical at this pace,  and I think the averages have to catch up at some point.   Just hope it's soon, these departures are insane.  

Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping.

The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913.

The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937.

The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944.

And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa.

I've been crunching the numbers for Tulsa, OK to see what the 5 year totals have been since 1900 to give some of us hope that history is on our side. Keep in mind these are YEARLY totals, not SEASONAL.

1900-1904: 14.9 inches

1905-1909: 46.9 inches

1910-1914: 22.7 inches

1915-1919: 47.5 inches

1920-1924: 58.1 inches

1925-1929: 40.6 inches

1930-1934: 27.5 inches

1935-1939: 27.5 inches

1940-1944: 42.1 inches

1945-1949: 51.8 nches

1950-1954: 45.0 inches

1955-1959: 51.3 inches

1960-1964: 48.9 inches

1965-1969: 48.4 inches

1970-1974: 47.4 inches

1975-1979: 48.8 inches

1980-1984: 30.6 inches

1985-1989: 65.0 inches

1990-1994: 33.8 inches

1995-1999: 36.1 inches

2000-2004: 62.3 inches

2005-2009: 47.6 inches

2010-2014: 61.7 inches

2015-2017: 11.8 inches

This averages out to 43.76 inches every 5 years, as you can see, we've been above that average since 2000, where we hit a high 62.3 inches for that 5 year period. We are currently at 11.8 inches in our 3 years(6.6 of these inches came in 2015), so for us to hit the average we need to get 31.96 inches this year and 2019 combined. We average 8.62 inches a year, so if history is on our side, and we can obtain average, then we are in for a great 2 years, but more likely, we end up below average for this 5 year period, which I think we've been spoiled the last 15 years with above average snowfall(years that I was living in TX). But I'm going to look on the bright side. While analyzing all these years, it is clear that each winter is unique, the data I'm seeing, it's clear that every 3 ish years there is a well above average year that doubles or even triples the normal amount, and with 3 years below average now, I think we are due either in the next 2 months, or the end of 2018 for a bomb that compensates for these sad numbers. I have every year's totals here for anyone interested.

Hope this brightens some outlooks! We are due, history is on our side!

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

If this season doesn't produce anymore snow, it will be the first time since they started keeping records in Tulsa(1950's) that 3 consecutive seasons see 3 inches or less of snow. Just a fun fact, haha.

Pardon me, I actually found more updated numbers going further back. Only once since 1900 has it snowed less than 3 inches 3 years in a row, and that was...

1910: Trace

1911: 0.8

1912: 1.9

They broke that drought in 1913 with 18.2 inches that year

If this season doesn't produce anymore snow, it will be the first time since they started keeping records in Tulsa(1950's) that 3 consecutive seasons see 3 inches or less of snow. Just a fun fact, haha.

4 minutes ago, Spot said:

Yea and look Winter Storm Warnings In the deep south.. Im ready for spring im tired of everything this winter.

Yup. It doesn't help that you know all this cold air is being wasted. If the patterns were in our favor, this had the potential to be a record breaking season.

1 minute ago, ouamber said:

Yea Oklahoma as a whole is hurting this winter. We got 1/2 inch before Christmas but that's it. This is by far the worst stretch of snowless winters. 

Lol and then this "storm" miraculously picks up South of us in Texas...sitting between the northern and southern stream is terrible. February is my last hope for this winter.

ETA: Sorry to be a bummer when many of y'all are happy today! Lol that HRRR straight up trolled Tulsa last night!

What's worse, I moved here from Dallas, and this is my 3rd winter up here now...which have all been virtually fruitless. I thought when I moved 4 hours north I'd get a lot more! Haha. But you are right, there are a lot of people who are happy today and I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade...but the weather enthusiast in me is crying. Just one, 3+ incher and I'll be satisfied until next winter.

2 hours ago, ouamber said:

Glad for all you guys!

 

This is sad for here....can't even buy a flurry here in Tulsa. Systems keep pulling North, south and east. It's terrible! I need to check the drought monitor. 

Yup...It's infuriating to to see that heavy band set up so close to us, and then see it's going to form to our south as well...it's like a sick joke.

Just now, NwWhiteOut said:

I know one of them was showing something for mid to late week a few days back? I cannot remember what one though, I have a hard time understanding the models though always have. I love this hobby but model running for me is hard to comprehend with a short term memory.

Model running is hard on the emotions, haha. I can't help but daydream when I see one project a huge snowstorm for me, only to have it completely absent the next day...

7 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said:

You apparently haven't seen the EURO!

Yup, here's to hoping this run of the GFS leans towards the last EURO run for next Thursday. The GFS also had quite the system moving in from the west for next weekend, lets see if it's still there this run!

Just now, GSwizzle83 said:

I am anxiously watching Thursday in the event of a NW shift. 

That's the thing about this track, any shift could make someone go from nothing to a whole lotta something, really quick.

I'm seeing a little bit more of the models suggesting some light snow on the back end of the storm as it moves off to the NE and creates quite an event for Ohio Valley region, thinking St. Louis might be in an icy situation. 

I'm starting to look ahead to the 16th, looks like all the major models agree there will be a storm system moving through the region at the time. I think that's our next shot.

Canadian running, lets see what happens.

What I wouldn't give.....