StormChazer

NAM is coming in a little cooler at hour 39 so far, by about 2 degrees.

Here are the Euro ensembles. I'll post an update on my analysis of them for the Tulsa area in a bit.

I'll post the Euro ensembles here shortly. they're out to hour 48 so far.

For those wondering.

Just now, rockchalk83 said:

It does. There's very little ice on this run of the Euro. There is also a very sharp cutoff to the snow, with much of S KS & S MO missing out on the big accms.

Yeah, it's a good run for OK and AR, not so much KS and MO.

There we go!

1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said:

Looking at the 12z Euro run in real-time and comparing it to the GFS/CMC models...the Euro is farther west with the high pressure, putting it in SW Iowa at 00z Saturday. The GFS/CMC have it over northeastern Iowa at that time. All the models have the high pressure at or near 1038 mb. 

Wouldn't that give us a colder solution?

Saying hi to everyone! Always nice to get more banter in here!

Not that the Canadian is an outstanding model, but it also trended colder and snowier.

So while the GFS did trend slightly colder, it drops much less precip. Interesting.

GFS looks to be coming in a little colder so far.

1 minute ago, Weatherdemon said:

I don't believe so.

They take into account new OBS but I believe that's it.

I suspected as much. Good to know, thanks!

11 hours ago, lovableweatherguy said:

Hello, I'm new to this board. I love in Troy, MO. I follow another board locally. But I noticed that some of those board members are also joined this one. Figured it can't hurt for us weather enthusiasts!

We have also been following this weekend's storm although we believe it will be south of STL MO at this time. Still plenty of time for it to come north though.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

Btw, I never got a chance to welcome you to the boards! I've dabbled in posts here and there in the past, but this is my first real year of posting alot. Any new faces are welcomed!

8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Here’s a temp comparison between the 06 GFS and the 12 NAM:

Hour.              GFS.             NAM

60.                  38.                 35

66.                  35.                 30

72.                  36.                 29

78.                  39.                  31

84.                  37.                  32

 

sorry for the ugly format   Typing on my phone.   

 

It's funny because that doesn't seem like much, but at the same time, that is drastic. Question, do you know if the models in any way play off each other? Like, if the NAM is coming in cold, is there anything in the GFS or Euro's algorithms that take that into account? I would think probably not, as they're entirely separate entities, but it bears asking the question.

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

I couldn’t agree more.  Feb 2011 is a great example of that.  Models and NWS were calling for 2-4 inches.  I ended up with 17 after being under a heavy band for about 3 hours.  I prefer under estimating and then hitting the jackpot.  Although that is rare.  

 

Wow!

So it begins.... here is the NAM at 6PM Friday

Here is the GFS at 6PM Friday

17 hours ago, StormChazer said:

So the following is the 12Z members and what I found for the immediate Tulsa area...

16 members have Tulsa either missing out or under 1-2 inches.

8 members put Tulsa a hair away or right on the line on heavy totals.

26 members dump a heavy swath of snow across Tulsa and surrounding areas.

 

So comparing the two, the biggest difference is that 5 members shifted from the middle and low column to the high column in Tulsa's favor. So I won't really complain too much about this. Lost ground on the master, but gained ground in the ensembles.

 

I went ahead and tallied up the ensembles(not counting control or master) of last night's Euro run.

19 members have Tulsa missing out or getting under 1-2 inches.

12 members put Tulsa RIGHT on that steep gradient(we're talking north Tulsa county gets 8 inches, south Tulsa county gets 1-2 inches), or is within a county away from the high totals.

19 members have Tulsa getting a good dumping of snow.

This is the 3rd time I've done this and pretty much we are back to my first analysis where the number was

17

12

21

But no doubt we lost some ensembles in the heavy column to the "right on the line" column. 

So the way I see it

38% say heavy snow

38% say little to no snow

24% say within 20 miles you go from no snow to 8 inches. I may be biased because I want this snow, but I feel this category has to lean in the heavy snow category's favor, seeing how cold air tends to spread a little more than models think. I'll do another one of these for the 12Z run today.

I've lived in North TX for about 25 years and OK now for 3, and when it comes to winter weather events, they tend to play out nearly identical. I know in my experience, it seems more often that not, that 24 hours or so before the event, everything tends to trend just a little cooler. Probably because the models need to initialize colder and start to pick up on how to handle the cold air just a bit better(which tends to be that it's underestimated the cold air), this usually sees winter storm watches or other advisories bump up an extra line of counties. Once this storm comes on shore, I think we'll get a much better painted picture, and today's NAM runs will be particularly useful since it handles cold air better(the two runs so far have already shown the air is colder than any other models).

I'll say this much, every time I can recall that I've ever received a heavy dumping of snow, it's been when the forecast calls for maybe half that, and then the cold air comes in quicker and doubles our totals out of "seemingly" nowhere. 

I'd love to see the GFS and Euro start a cooling trend today, but frankly, the long range models are always going to struggle with this cold air, it's just the nature of the beast. My eyes are going to start focusing on the NAM here soon.

52 minutes ago, JoMo said:

UKMET is really far south. We'll see is the Euro follows. 

Do these two usually correlate to each other?

Max range on the NAM, so take it for what it's worth, but this certainly is a much colder solution than every other model.

I’ll agree the snow line confuses me.

24 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Well, now both GFS and V3 have went north and Tulsa is in the screw zone.  The snow maps look weird how it goes NE and then due east.  Why can't it just give all of us something instead of screwing someone to the north or someone to the south? Terrible.

No need to throw in the towel. It’s 1 run. This far out, so much is still subject to change. The Euro ensembles showed that the Euro master didn’t line up too well, it could very well dip back down tonight for all we know. I’d wait until Wednesday before getting too upset!

For those wondering, here is the current snow pack. It's going to stay cold up in Nebraska, so should be interesting to see if this has any affect in speeding up the cold air.

Tulsa thoughts on the upcoming system.

"The strong system in the southern stream over the E Pac is forecast to move
across the southern tier of states, and will tap a plentiful
moisture source from the Gulf to produce widespread precipitation
over the south central states. Coincidentally, a strong shortwave
trough in the northern stream will force a cold front thru the
region Thursday with colder air filtering into the region thru the
weekend as surface high pressure settles south into the central
Plains. This one-two punch on the separate streams of the
westerlies tends to bring some of the bigger winter weather events
for our part of the world.

Using a blend of the thermal profiles aloft and the raw surface
temps (which have trended warmer slightly) from the GFS/ECMWF,
and using the latest QPF (the character of which is very similar
between the GFS/ECMWF), this forecast will continue to suggest
the potential for a winter storm across portions of NE OK and NW
AR. Snow and sleet are expected to be the primary winter weather
types, with some very light icing possible at precip onset down
along the I-40 corridor. Rain will be predominant thru much of the
event south of I-40, with a change over expected toward the end
of the event Sat/Sat night and thus lighter accums. The details
will continue to be refined in the coming days, especially as we
get into the time frame of the NAM and its better handling of cold
air in a day or so. Stay tuned for updates. Travel impacts across
portions of the region are looking more likely."

GFS is up and running. Will post thoughts shortly!