StormChazer

" One of the most memorable aspects of this particular storm was the introduction of “cobblestone ice” into the common vocabulary of North Texans. So why did it form, and why did it get so bad? First off, it goes without saying that there was an abundance of precipitation with this event. Many areas received over an inch of liquid, including DFW Airport, where 1.25” of liquid was observed. North and east of the Metroplex, totals were even higher. This translated into multiple inches of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain which existed in layers of varying depth. As traffic and marginal air and ground temperatures began to work on this frozen mess, some of it melted partially and morphed into slush during the daytime hours. Once nighttime fell, however, most of it would refreeze and harden. Despite the best efforts of local and state road crews, this cycle of compaction, melting, refreezing and hardening repeated itself in some areas over a period of up to 4 days. In some spots, particularly on bridges and overpasses, larger chunks of ice were broken out of the icepack by plows and traffic. These chunks would mix in with the slush during the daytime, forming a soupy gray mess. At night, the entire concoction would refreeze, producing large molded bumps that were essentially glued to the very top of the roadways (or bridge decks). It was these hard, rock-like formations that represented the essence of the cobblestone ice experience for North Texas drivers. Once frozen in place, this unique ice proved quite difficult to remove. Depths ranged from ½” to 4”, depending on where traffic caused peaks and valleys in the slush before it froze into cobblestone form."

Honestly, 1/2 inch of sleet is enough to get stuck and shut the roads down, it really doesn't take much, sleet just turns the roads into an ice skating rink as soon as those sleet pellets settle and freeze together. 4 inches of sleet is a PROLIFIC amount that you don't see very often at all. This is a great NWS article out of DFW on the 2013 Cobblestone Ice event that I personally lived through. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/december72013 A large chunk of DFW received 3-5 inches of sleet, and that's the last time I can remember since this storm of anyone getting that much around here.

Measured 8-10 inches in my back yard. Can’t be upset with that. The most snow I’ve seen in probably 15 years and certainly the most I’ve seen since moving to Oklahoma in 2016. Underperormer of a storm to be sure, but by any normal standards, a great snowstorm for many. Comparison is the thief of joy. So while it doesn’t look like the models, it’s still been fantastic!

My ONLY concern right now so far, is the HRRR doesn't seem to be very gung-ho on this with amounts. If you aren't in the intense band, it really lowers numbers. at least in the first wave. Will await the 18Z.

Euro has just never let up.

Hard to be upset about this a handful of hours before it starts.

This will forever be the most frustrating thing I have ever experienced as a snow lover. I'll never forget I had a work function that lasted 3 days, and we flew in our team from Mexico, and this one lady had never seen snow. I GUARANTEED her she would get to see some, and we proceeded to get the infamous donut hole. Beyond upset... BUT, this is a system that no matter what, we are getting 5-6 inches out of, even in the most bust type of situation.

I just truly don't see that verifying, I think the NAM has a warm bias and the sleet stays 1 or 2 counties south of Tulsa. THe high resolution actually keeps the sleet south(2nd wave yet to occur on this run).

This is the HRRR, second wave hasn't even happened yet.

36 hours out from the onset of the bulk of this storm and the Euro is still pumping out these numbers...

Luckily, this type of setup doesn't really give us a dry slot issue, so that's good news.

12Z NAM

GFS brings the second wave north again this run.