rainsucks

GEFS has been running too cold for a while now. It will correct warmer with time.

The pattern being modeled for the 2nd half of June is looking pretty ugly. The GEPS in particular is just an absolute blowtorch, and this is just a taste of what's to come. Can't even being to imagine what will happen in July/August when boreal summer teleconnections mature, but we'll see.

1 hour ago, Baum said:

there is a death ridge every year. But clearly, it appears we are looking at a more moderate June-at least. Been a few years since that occurred. It's summer in the midwest-enjoy.

Nah man, it’s not going to be the “it gets hot every year” type of heat, this year is different. It’s also not clear that this June will be “more moderate” yet.

I'm not a big heat fan myself, but I honestly think some of you are in denial, no offense. There isn't a single variable that will lead to the avoidance of a death ridge this year. Check out the SSTs/OHC in the Gulf/SE region. Speaks for itself. 

On 5/30/2024 at 7:16 AM, A-L-E-K said:

lol

100% expected actually given upcoming MJO progression/tropical forcing response. Won't last long tho, so enjoy.

DCA: +2.0  102

NYC: +1.8  100

BOS: +1.7  99

ORD: +2.4  104

ATL: +1.5  102

IAH: +2.0  107

DEN: +2.4  104

PHX: +1.8  120

SEA: +1.3  99

This summer (and likely autumn) is going to be a literal torch fest for the entire country (except Alaska), and it's actually starting to concern me. Even without factoring climate change into it, the state of tropical forcing and internal variability itself favors heat to a rather extreme degree this year. Enjoy the next few weeks because it's looking ugly afterwards. Worth noting that 1988 happens to be one of the better analogs for this summer, which is rather unfortunate as a modern 1988 regime would be potentially catastrophic.

I would not be surprised if this ends up being the hottest summer on record for this sub. Niña onset with descending +QBO is pretty much a guarantee for a blowtorch summer, though I don't think we see much in the way of extreme heat until later on in July/August.

none whatsoever here

so bad

It's been a wonderful spring here in the Midwest. Sorry to hear it hasn't been as nice on the EC.

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not bad, but 2012 saw a much warmer spring in most locations. Data below are for the period 3/1 to 5/15. Second warmest in most places in the southern parts of the subforum [1977 was warmer at ORD & DSM], but not as warm in the north. Only 12th mildest at MSP.

MKE

ORD

DSM

DTW

TOL

IND

CMH

CLE

MSP

I get that 2012 was technically warmer due to the freak March heatwave, but as a whole, I actually prefer this spring over 2012 in my area specifically.

9 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Been a baller spring thus far. 

This might just be the nicest spring I've ever experienced in my lifetime. Springs around these parts tend to not be very pleasant, but this one has been an exception for sure.

3 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Toronto has yet to hit 75F this year. Hottest its been is 71F 

 

@Snowstorms  @michsnowfreak what would be the best site to see the latest Toronto has gone without seeing 75F? April was also the 2nd rainiest month since 1840 haha. Just stuck in neutral in winter and now spring. 

Still doesn't change the fact that it's been one of the warmest springs on record for this sub as a whole, with the mild (albeit on the wet side) pattern looking to continue for the foreseeable future.

AI models suggesting we see some legit heat towards the final week of the month. Either way, looks seasonable to above average for the most part.

good to see the models are still horrendously cold biased.

2 hours ago, Baum said:

isn't that slightly above normal for Chicago area?

ORD is currently running a +2.4 departure and will likely finish around +3, good for a top 15 warmest April on record. That's a bit more than just "slightly above" imo.

7 minutes ago, winterwx01 said:

It's harder and harder to see below normal months. Could you image July coming in with -5.

that actually happened not too long ago in 2014 when ORD finished right at -5. But yeah, hard to imagine that happening now.

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I suppose if a typical April is record-breaking heat?

the incessant downplaying of warmth on this board is really starting to get old.

1 minute ago, Baum said:

it's been a typical April.

nah, he's right. It's been a notably warm and wet April across the region. Though northern Illinois seems to be a relative cool spot this month for some reason. 

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +2.0

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.3

DEN: +1.5

PHX: 0.0

SEA: +1.0

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Model consistency is very low next week and beyond.  They are showing everything from continued active to blocked-up cold and dry, with wild swings from run to run.

I really don't understand what's tripping up the models. Can't ever recall this type of inconsistency before, very strange.

On 4/21/2024 at 7:45 PM, Powerball said:

Sadly, pretty impressive for what some declared to be cold shot overdone by forecast guidance.

Although a new record wasn't technically set due to a midnight high of 63*F, DFW spent much of the daylight hours yesterday in the upper 40s & lower 50s. The official record minimum high was 53*F.

Hopefully, after today, we're done with the 50s/60s until next "Winter."

I never made any claims about this past weekend's (short-lived) cold shot being overdone. The one we're about to see, however, was 100% overdone by guidance (in both intensity AND duration), which I made very clear last week. Regardless, people shouldn't be complaining about this April as it's been quite nice for the most part. Unlike 2018 when nearly the entire month was stuck in a wintry pattern.

10 hours ago, madwx said:

You are right about that. The Euro AIFS has been trending warmer with each run for next week

yep, there's been a clear warming trend for sure. Still receive a weenie from a useless poster for being objective, though.

4 hours ago, madwx said:

After this weekend and the one middle of next week I think we should be done with cold shots after that 

I'm not even convinced yet that next week's will pan out as currently modeled by guidance. I'm not saying it won't, but the models continue to overdo the intensity of cold shots time and time again, so I'm a bit skeptical.