Henry's Weather

If these NAO forecasts verify, shouldn't long-range guidance trend cooler and cooler?

quick thoughts. comments? seems good for the next few weeks, I remember being worried about the one-eyed pig, seems to have melted away...

HRRR does a little comma head at the very end, enhances rates for an hours or so

Menacing look in Poughkeepsie

Think we'll get a moderate risk at the midnight update?

Will it be discrete cells ahead of a line?

My shoddy analysis. Am I right in thinking Kingston area is the place to be?

Where is the place to be tomorrow? Thinking of taking a drive to the Poughkeepsie area

Do we make a thread for Saturday too?

Such as?

Why do west winds limit storm convergance?

Where is weatherwiz to start a thread for Tuesday?

How often do we get highlighted in day 4 spc outlooks?

Slight risk expanded northeast with 5% tornado probs into most of NE. Hoping for a watch or two tomorrow

This is a one day window?

Isn't this roughly the same setup as last week? Shear seems a little better, while instability seems worse.

Tuesday is a run-of-the-mill frontal passage?

Sun poking back out

Judging by that cell on the MA/NY border, there is still a window for more storms

Round 2?

ETA for storm out in Amherst for me? Like 5:30?

I'm guessing we wont have much until the final frontal passage because of a lack of speed shear, storm mode is too pulsating to allow storms to mature to severe.

Thanks. More questions, not necessarily only aimed at weatherwiz: In my (limited) understanding, EML air-masses originate from the SW USA and find their way here along a ridge with westerly winds usually? And they're characterized by dry midlevels and steep midlevel lapse rates? If this is true, and transport is usually due to a midsummer 594-ish mb ridge, I'm wondering why these events aren't that common. It seems like we get ridges like that a couple times every summer, and we see frontal passages maybe every 4 days.

how rare are EML events here?

Worth a slight risk?