Geoboy645

13 hours ago, madwx said:

Extremely heavy rain with the line that just moved through.  0.78” so far today.  
 

 

80 degree dews coming to a neighborhood near you this summer 

We ended up getting trained by storms from about 7 to 10:30 last night up here. The closest wunderground station with reliable precipitation data has 2.14" of rain for yesterday. We are now at around 9" of rain since May 21st. The killer is is that even the smaller rain events have overperformed.

8 minutes ago, madwx said:

0.41" here.  7.13" on the month

Y'know what would be nice, if it stopped raining here for a couple days. We have had 6+" of rain since last Monday, with more tomorrow. And its been like an inch or more of rain everytime it rains. Even yesterday's more moderate rain still had a heavy cell that pushed us over an inch here and dumped 2+ between Fall River and Beaver Dam. A brief break on Wednesday/Thursday before even more rain chances over the weekend. All of the rivers are at bankfull, the marshes are getting flooded, and most fields have at least a bit of standing water in them. Easily the most water we have had since 2019. If we get a major rain event (like 4"+ or even 2" if it falls very quickly) we are going to have some major problems across the area. It doesn't even need to be an 07/08/18 style marathon. Even a May 04 event would be very bad rn with how saturated we are. 

6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Meanwhile, 18Z 3K NAM wants a Tuesday redux for Wisconsin, with UH tracks extending way north of where SPC has the slight.

Yeah can we not do a repeat of that? It's going to take at least another week to get fully cleaned up here from Tuesday, and with the Crawfish still quite high we are prone rn to any major rainfall. That's honestly my biggest concern atm out of this stretch, as essentially the corridor from Lodi to Doylestown to Fox Lake to Waupun can't take a whole lot more rain after Monday/Tuesday. As well as points west along the Baraboo, although they are still coming off the drought there so its not as bad. If we get unlucky with either total rain amounts or rainfall rates we could be talking some potential issues along the drainages along that corridor come Monday. We have the potential for the biggest flooding event in the area since the Wild Card flooding in October 2019 in my opinion.

Well last night's QLCS was a long night here. We got the initial tor-warned round through at about 8, that line didn't do too much damage. However, we got the straight-line winds from the SW from the 2nd round, and that did some damage around here. There are probably a few dozen fallen or snapped trees around the area from the wind, with some areas losing power as a result. If I had to guess we probably got 70+ winds, if not 80+ in the most exposed areas. Notably with the wind coming out of the SW, areas that would be relatively protected from our typical NWerly squall lines experienced the full brunt. Coupled with weakening from last years drought and EAB, no wonder we lost so many trees. Easily the most wind damage we have had here in almost a decade. The last time being the downburst on 7/13/15. After that round came through, some redevelopment occured and we had about 4-5 mins of quarter-sized hail. And while all of this was going on, we got at least 2" of rain. Combined with the rain from the MCV on Monday, some areas to the north of me have had 4-5" within the last two days. The Crawfish is up to bankfull now for the first time in at least a year if not longer. Been a very busy last two days here. 

Meanwhile up here in GRB, we actually have had a bit of a precip streak going since Friday. Every day since then has had at least .01 inches of rain. And the forecast for the next week shows a pretty good chance of that streak going all the way to potentially next Sunday if later. If we get to 8 days, so Saturday, it's a top 10 all time streak for days above .01 inches of rain. And 11 is our record, from April 1973. GRB has also mentioned areal flooding concerns as we get into the later part of the week, as even though this hasn't been heavy rain with the highest being .32 on Saturday, the streak of days starts to add up after a while. Especially if we get into some heavier stuff on Thursday. 

Pretty impressive flip-flop between yesterday, today and tomorrow. Yesterday, 78 and sunny to partly cloudy all day with showers and storms later in the night. Today, midday highs barely breaking 45 and rain pretty constantly all day. And then tomorrow it's supposed to warm back up to 68 and partly cloudy. In fact, the lowest temps of the period were at like 1 today when it was 43 out. Temps have been slowly rising since then and should continue all night long. 

SPC has introduced a Day 4 15% across IA/IL/WI all the way to the UP Border. 

The models within the last couple of days have really honed in on a potential multi-day severe and heavy rain threat over this weekend over the western part of the forum. With a particular focus at this point on Friday in IA for severe and a heavy rain event over the Upper Mississippi Valley for the weekend. Considering how wet it has been in that part of the forum for the last month and a half, there may be some flooding concerns as we get closer. Could be a very busy weekend here in the Midwest.

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Decent rain here going to work on those snow piles; should seen an explosion of greenery within a few days.

Yeah up here at least our forecast doesn't drop close to 32 all week. Coupled with all the recent precip and sunny days later in the week, everything should be going nuts for green up by the end of the week.

We maxed out at about 5 inches on the ground around midnight on Wednesday. We switched to mix after that and we only had about 2 inches after that. One thing about this though is how wet it is here now. We went from basically no puddles when it rained two weeks ago to now puddles everywhere on the lawns and sidewalks. GRB has had 1.36 inches in the last three days and 2.76 inches in the last three weeks. Talk about a turnaround here

It's been pretty gnarly so far here in GRB. We had thundersnow about 2 hours ago that I unfortunately did not hear. The wind has really picked up and we have I would say 3-4" on the ground. I think we have transitioned back to mix here as well though, although it is hard to tell. If we have transitioned back to mix, that could cut down on our totals however. Either way it is a slushy mess outside rn.

We fully switched over to snow about 2 hours ago. It has been heavily coming down since, with probably 1-1.5 inches or so accumulation so far on grass. Green Bay officially has us at 8-12" for snowfall, with 12-18 further N. What an escalation considering 48 hours ago we were talking snow showers. It's going to be a long night here in Green Bay.

I figured this needed it's own thread at this point. So the models over the last 24 hours have really come into agreement that tomorrow into Wednesday across Wisconsin and the UP. Some models like the 18z have over 20 inches (!) of snow on the Ledge by this time Wednesday afternoon, and it's still snowing. Which is absolutely insane. There's also the potential for up to 50mph gusts during this event as well. And with the lake being completely open and warm for this time of year, there is a decent chance of lake enhancement off of Green Bay. If that happens, then the sky is the limit for potential in the Fox Valley with this storm in my opinion. 

It's already starting to snow a little bit here in Green Bay. GRB has issued a winter storm watch for tomorrow and Wednesday for it's eastern half and this is pretty strong wording considering the low lead time for this.

This is really giving me the same vibes as 3/25 last year. Large area of snow, with a death band that we don't really know where it's going to set up in the event is underway. And this time, there's going to be a hefty wind component to it. Green Bay may legit get it's second foot plus storm this year which is insane considering the rest of the winter. 

55 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

06z Euro

....wait what...

I'd say this winter was a C- here. The theme of this winter was what it wasn't doing for really all but two weeks. Basically no snowcover, consistent temps in the 30s and 40s, and two double digit positive monthly anomalies. A green Christmas with 50s and rain, and oh yeah a sigtor on February 8th (!). However, the two weeks that were wintry were one of the more intense winter periods we have had in the last 5 years. Probably number 3 after the last week of Jan in 2019 and the two weeks in Feb 2021. Over 20 inches of snow followed by a week in the single digits is pretty intense no matter what the winter is. And that snowpack was extremely solid. Even with the constant 40s after the period, it still took over two weeks for the snowpack to melt. If it was a normal winter we might just now be finishing off that snowpack. So I can't really go too low with the score because of that. Hence, my score of a C-.

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Hard not to get excited about this upcoming stretch for us in Minnesota. 

You could say that yeah. So much for those futility records lol. 

6 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm really liking the medium to long range.  Ensembles are spitting out widespread 2-3" of precip across the region through 15 days as big troughs eject out of the west and the gulf is wide open.

Yeah the consistent signal for the beginning of a stormy period has been nice to see the last few days. What's not been so nice is the signal that at least some of that precip could be of the frozen variety especially in the N of the forum. But precip is precip, and basically everywhere can really use some right now no matter the type. 

2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Long range makes me think it’s the return of the Dust Bowl.

I wonder what the record is for latest into the new year before Minneapolis surpasses 1” of precipitation for the year. 

According to Xmacis, looks like April 6th, 1912 is the latest Minneapolis crossed the 1" mark for the year. Interestingly enough, that was also a Nino albeit it only got 1.4 instead of 1.8 departure. The difference however is that 1911-1912, especially January 1912, was one of the coldest winters ever for the Midwest. Like Minneapolis averaged a *checks notes* -18.9 departure for the month in January (!). Quite the opposite of this winter to say the least. 

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We REALLY need March to be wet.  There has been jack squat for precip since the big mid January snow and melt.

Yeah if we don't have a wet March then we are going to be in big trouble across most of the Upper Midwest. We really didn't recover from the drought all that much even in the wetter areas last fall. Combine that with the no frost and snowpack and we are already about 2-3 weeks ahead arguably from an evapotranspirational standpoint. I have some serious concerns especially for MN and the Northwoods where they didn't even get the snow in January.

Well we ended up with a nice 2-3" of snow from this storm. Classic mid-March storm with the rain at the beginning last night and then turning over into slushy snow overnight. Its become sunny now and the snow caked on the trees is really pretty right now before the sune melts it. Will have a nice cooldown into the 20s the next couple of days, but right back to average in the upper 30s and 40s on Sunday. Talk about a perfectly stereotypical mid-March pattern....wait what do you mean its February 15th?!

Honestly at this point, I don't know if I really want anymore significant cold and snow. The warmth and rain yesterday felt really nice, and there are already the beginnings of some of our early spring plants coming up. I've frankly forgotten that it is in fact early February a few times. We've had our cold and snowy stretch, and a pretty high end one at that. Let's get an early, warm, and drawn out spring in for once. I know that we will get cold and snow still, especially with the incoming SSW. But man, this stretch has been really nice. 

In other news. With the warmth yesterday. GRB is now up to a +17.1 (!) departure for the month. And that's probably not going to come down to earth all that much in the next 5-7 days going by the point forecast. Even if we had a repeat of the Mid-January cold wave, and that's not looking likely at all, we'd still be talking about probably at least a +5 anomaly for the month. We have to be pretty much locked in for at least a top 15 if not top 10 warmest February at this point. 

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

GHD I was fun; although (at least in Milwaukee, where I was living at the time) the wind caused so much drifting that the snow depth elsewhere didn't really seem all that impressive to me. I have no memory at all of GHD II, as I don't think it affected southern Wisconsin all that much in terms of noteworthy totals.

Yeah we only got like 4 inches of snow from GHD II at least in the Madison metro and points north. It was a pretty ho-hum snowfall for us. It's why Feburary 15 as cold as it was doesn't really stick out as much as other similar months.