etudiant

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

By the way, any ideas on if the UPS should be turned off when the devices connected to it are off?  I want the battery to last as long as possible so I was thinking the UPS should be turned off when connected devices are all off.

Turning off the UPS when you turn off all the other devices makes sense, it cuts out any risks of voltage surges. The increased battery life is minimal, but it does no harm.

Replacing the UPS batteries is really no problem though, plus it is a $50 for the battery vs $250 for a minimally decent new UPS.

Not sure that is sufficient to prove the point. We need to see actual increases in high intensity hurricanes, not just periods of rapid intensification.

Otherwise, one is preaching to the choir.

There is no indication that the warming thus far has actually produced increased hurricane intensity. So the premise for this model needs further justification before becoming actionable.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

thats why I turn all electronics off during storms.  I've lost thousands of dollars of equipment because of thunderstorms.

Oh wow, that is really painful.  A good UPS might cost several hundred dollars, but would protect the expensive electronics.

2 minutes ago, Crispus said:

I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop?  And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be?

That is the kind of nuts and bolts facts that we really need, but cannot find anywhere in the 'information age'.

Suggests there will be serious pricing disruptions for foodstuffs globally. The US feeds many more than the domestic consumers.

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

LOL, sounds like the warm season version of slant sticking to me 

LOL indeed. Only a forum of weather compulsives could come up with even the concept of 'slant sticking'.

There is probably some crusty naval term which applies to optimistic wind measurements, but I don't know it. Maybe someone here can help.

Missed us in Manhattan. Just a sprinkling, not enough to leave more than a few damp patches by daybreak.

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Up to 87 today.  

Not in Manhattan, don't believe we even cracked 80.

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Dallas, go big or go home...

Think downtown Ft Worth next door was hit by a tornado a couple of decades ago. Iirc, it broke a lot of glass, but there were few casualties.

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you think blackpoll? the sounds don't match what i listened to on the cornell site

The photo is of a Blackpoll. The combination of black cap and white cheeks is distinctive.

Is there sound with the picture?  

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

black and white warbler 

Nice shot of a Blackpoll Warbler.  It's plumage will look very different in the fall, when it heads back to Brazil.

They do the New York to Brazil flight in a single hop, which is just astonishing for such a little creature.

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In a recent tweet, Joe Bastardi compared the CFSv2 forecast for May with the May outcomes, arguing that the model did not see the cold. However, he uses the April 1-10 initial conditions. CFSv2 runs from later in April were not far off base. In general, one should also look at later guidance. Modeling can and frequently does change over time.

The difficulty arises when people attempt to use the models as forecasts. By the evidence, beyond day two, the modeling methodology still falls short.

Very interesting paper.

It suggests that the phenomenon is a quite frequent occurrence, with 5 such events of over 24 months duration during the past 60 years. Do any of the atmospheric models show the TNH pattern that the researchers suggest is driving this? 

10 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

One other fun fact, it's actually edible and not bad from what I have read.

Which part is edible? Does anyone grow it for food?

9 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Speaking of weeds, the cold hasn't bothered the knotweed, the invasive plant from  Japan, which makes kudzu look quaint.....it nearly took over the Bronx River area. In the UK they won't even issue you a mortgage if the stuff is found in your yard. Have you seen it? You bet. Go down to any local stream, you'll see the banks covered with it. The roots can be the extent of a football field; they can grow up through foundations. Like something outta Dr. Who....

Sounds like a plant farmers would love if it actually offered something useful. Maybe the genetic engineers could help the knotweed grow bigger seedpods or something.

Have to say that I liked 'global warming' a lot better. It accurately describes the ongoing process.

Climate change by contrast is content free imho. It takes a whole lot of added context to give it meaning.

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The City is currently at 2.96" through 7 pm. The 3.00" mark is virtually certain to be reached.

Pretty sure we're past 3" by now, raining steadily here in Manhattan

41 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there was a massive hemispheric circulation change in 2013 which bluewave has posted about in detail

The change did not get the superstar treatment at the time.

Was this because it takes time to recognize that a big shift has occurred or because we did not appreciate the phenomenon?

Is hemispheric circulation modeled effectively or is it a space where skill levels are still evolving?

A cautionary tale, the windmills output approximates that of the country's nuclear sites, which are getting shut down.

The effect is to trade one low emission power source for another, leaving the bulk of the electrical production reliant on conventional power plants, many fueled by brown coal, an especially dirty fuel.

A better way to store power and a more aggressive implementation of a Europe wide power sharing infrastructure would help a lot, but technology gaps and political NIMBY opposition to big power transmission lines are real obstacles. 

I don't understand this. 

The two graphs for actual temperature look pretty similar, but the anomaly graphs are very different.   Can someone please help me understand how that happens?

Situation seems similar to that after the 2004 earthquake, first reports are of only a few casualties, because the worst hit sites have lost communications entirely.

Looks to be very ugly.

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Billings, Montana had its coldest February since 1936. Here is an interesting comparison, just for fun -

    Feb      Nino 4     Nino 3.4  Nino 3    Nino 12

2019

28.92

27.43

26.95

26.66

     1936      28.31    27.25    26.72      26.52

Yup...almost identical. February 2019 was essentially 1936 +0.15C in all zones but Nino 4. So Billings had its warmer version of February 1936.

Well, if a 1936 + 0.15C rerun is going to happen, summer will be toasty.

Manhattan UES thus far just wet streets, no accumulation at all apart from a coating on parked cars.

The precipitation will need to intensify if the forecast 5-8" are to materialize.

NYC Central Park a healthy 2", maybe even a bit more. Plus we still had snow cover from the prior event, so it added nicely and gave a solid cover.

Lots of happy kids on sleds, even a few intrepid cross country skiers.