JoMo

I watched the neighbors dog in its first snowfall zoomie around for a bit before he realized it was cold, and then he headed right back to the door.

I remember the days before weather models were online. A local TV station had a phone number you could call to get the weather forecast via recording from their weatherman. I used to call it about every 5-10 minutes when snow was expected to see if anything had changed or to just hear "The chance of snow is near 100%." Got excited every time. Eventually graduated to watching TWC, still remember some of those elevator/jazz music 'local on the 8's' sounds. Different world today with how easy it is to access the computer models though.

Looks like 5-6" in Joplin. I wasn't sure we'd make it there until the heavier bands started rolling through.

Always so serene on nights when it's snowing. Fresh blanket of snow covering everything and it looks like twilight outside.

In a decent band in Joplin right now. Coming down at a fairly good pace. Probably 2-3" or so, so far.

Winter storm warning extended northward to Joplin/Springfield as well. 4-6"

00z Euro moved NW as well but tighter with the gradient in NW Arkansas.

It feels very different, rooting for a NW trend instead of wanting no NW trend.

00z GFS shifted NW as well.

00z RDPS with a shift NW as well.

Trough is more neutrally tilted on the 00z NAM with the 500 MB winds backing more to the south. Interesting NAM run, but, it is the NAM.

2-4" seems about right for a general snowfall for areas not in the Winter Storm Warning. Areas that sit under any banding will probably be on the higher side of that. Also, probably an area of 1-3" where that dry pocket ends up.

00z Euro is going the wrong way with an even more positively tilted trough.

NW Arkansas is going to get some beefier totals on the 00z GFS but man, that cutoff is sharp to the north.

Surface low location is pretty locked in. It'll move around a bit but no big changes this close probably. The bigger issues are how far north the snow is able to progress north which depends on the orientation of the system to the southwest and how the digging northern energy phases with it, and how quickly additional northern stream energy cuts off the progress of the moisture streaming north. In the perfect scenario the digging energy causes a part of the trough to tilt negative which slings the precip back farther north and west, which may happen for a brief period if all goes well. Getting the trough to be more neutral would be good as well but it probably won't last long as the additional northern energy will shift the winds behind it back to the north which shuts off the precip, and can be seen pretty dramatically on the 12z Euro snow maps.

00z Euro is also improving the look of the 9th/10th system.

00z GFS and 00z GEM didn't look too bad tonight. Nice to see the GFS ensembles come into better agreement as well.

Yeah, I saw the Chiefs are stuck in KC (supposed to be flying to Denver), as the airport has closed due to icing.

NW trend has started. Should be in good shape once it gets here, haha

Complex phasing situation over the southwest.

00z Euro did shift south a bit. Hopefully that continues but we'll see.

The 00z GFS sure is interesting for the Sunday storm. No Northern Plains system to screw things up, a more positive tilt to start which keeps it colder, a weaker system that matures at the right time for our area.

With the 12z Euro showing central Texas getting more snow than many of us.

Yeah, it definitely looks cold. 18z even had it reloading. We'll have to see how it all lines out with precip chances.

That's a very cold look on the 18z GFS. All sorts of high latitude blocking.