chris624wx

Everything on 12z runs way too flat but not in punting territory yet haha

With temps around freezing, looks like it'd be a very wet snow as opposed to our pixie stick dust during the January event!

Even then....lol

Just heavy rain for us on the coast on that ICON run. I like the look though. Just need the low father south and east off the coast.

Not for us on the coast if it stays that flat and doesn't dig down to the Gulf, unfortunately

Loving my cold rain! I never want anything to do with an ice storm. Experienced many growing up in the favorable CAD areas in NE Georgia.

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Yup. Had a few hours of token flakes in Norfolk with temps around 40F. Nice to look at it but it's stopped now.

Hope y'all in the interior do well with this one, but not enthused a bit for Southside HR. Hopefully we get a better look for a storm before the winter is over.

Hard to get excited with a front end thump and know that rain is going to wash it away too.

We're just not going to do well all the down here on the coast with transient highs and no blocking . That's why I've been checked out the past few weeks haha

Another bay streamer moving through VB right now. Such a cool phenomenon!

Had around 2.1 inches near Ghent/Downtown Norfolk when I went to measure around 2 AM last night once the last band moved through. That was before the bay steamer developed though. Definitely a nice event especially since we didn't have to worry about mixing issues. If we can get something else this winter, I'd be down!

It's really putting it down!

Probably the heaviest it's been all night!

Visibility with this band really went down! Wring it all out, atmosphere!

Going to enjoy it as it moves through. Hard to be upset with it ending earlier than modeled when this was OTS 36 hours ago

Yeah, I just came in from walking around. It looked like maybe 1.5'' here near Downtown Norfolk.

I hope that happens but it just feels like the window is closing earlier than it was supposed to looking at that NW edge

Need that heavy band to work it's way 20 miles north or so lol

FLAKES near Ghent/Downtown NFK!

Still desperately looking under lamp posts here

Especially with the wind!

Tim Pandajis' latest post

-- Changed Discussion -- As of 320 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Accumulating snow is expected across Northeast North Carolina and Southeast Virginia tonight. - A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach. - Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Northeast North Carolina east of the Chowan River, with Winter Weather Advisories from interior northeast North Carolina to the rest of southeast Virginia. - Additional Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for late tonight into Wednesday morning. Afternoon wx analysis shows a broad, positively tilted trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure continues to deepen in the Gulf of Mexico (with impressive snowfall amounts along the Gulf coast), while Arctic high pressure resides from TX to the Mid MS River Valley. Locally, it is very cold with temps only in the mid 20s under BKN-OVC mid level clouds on the east side of the trough axis. There are actually a few light radar echoes in the Piedmont, but this is obviously not reaching the ground yet as the low-levels are extremely dry. The shortwave trough is progged to sharpen a bit as it approaches and crosses the area late this evening through early Wednesday morning...while low pressure tracks NE well off the southeast/Carolina coast. By this evening (as the shortwave approaches), mid-level WAA will increase area-wide. In addition, model cross sections continue to depict favorable sloping frontogenesis with vertical ascent within the DGZ. This would normally provide enough forcing for ascent to result in widespread light to moderate snow. However, the low-levels will initially be very dry with cold/dry advection continuing overnight. So, the main forecast challenge will is figuring out how far north the snow will be able to reach the ground. While there will likely be a rather sharp cutoff with no snow NW and 1-2" of snow only 30-50 miles to the SE, the 12z models have trended farther north and confidence has increased enough to upgrade Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and VA Beach to the Winter Storm Warning. While there could be a few hours worth of snow resulting in very minor (~0.5") accums near and just to the north of an Emporia-Williamsburg-Ocean City line...the dry air likely wins out here (and especially farther NW). Farther to the SE (especially toward the coast), expect several hours worth of light to moderate snow beginning between 6-9 PM and ending from NW-SE early Wed AM. Given the cold temps, SLRs likely reach 15-20:1 which will likely result in 3-4" of accumulation in most of NE NC and in Norfolk/VA Beach. 4-5" totals are expected in Camden/Currituck Counties. Will have to watch for localized higher totals in Norfolk/Portsmouth/Chesapeake/VA Beach due to moisture enhancement form northerly flow off the Ches. Bay. Winter Wx Advisories are in effect for 1-3" of expected snow from interior NE NC to the Peninsula/VA Eastern Shore. Even in areas just outside the advisory, snow will accumulate efficiently (even on roadways) given cold/dry ground. The synoptic snow should end by 3 AM in SE VA and 5 AM in NE NC. The vast majority of the winter headlines are from 5 PM this aftn through 7 AM Wednesday. However, have run the warnings through 18z/1 PM for Norfolk/Chesapeake/VA Beach given the possibility of some additional (highly localized) minor accums from bay effect snowfall through the morning after the synoptic snow ends. Low temperatures tonight drop into the upper single digits NW, to around 20F SE, with wind chills from around 0F NW to around 10F SE. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from late tonight into Wednesday morning. Updated AFD from AKQ this afternoon