the_other_guy

im curious how colder temps up north vs lighter precip plays out in terms of total snowfall. in a vacuum, the heaviest snow should be at a point lake Jfk where a place like White Plains gets less. but when you factor in temperatures, I wonder if that’s actually the case. Wont know until it is done

you can’t reliably book an xmas ski week in Lake Placid now. they have had a solid run of bad xmas weeks for a while now with a few exceptions. It’s only 300 miles north. It’s not like it’s in Siberia. If its 55 here, it is 45 there.

Man, you can bet on that 50° weather between the 20th and 30th of December every year. For reference when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s, we went to Lake Placid every year the day after Christmas…. And it was always reliably, cold and snowy. The changes particularly in the latter half of December have been astounding in my lifetime

It hasnt become more pronounced. it is the same historical pattern. More pronounced would be if that threshold changed to 5 inches, or occurred more frequently. Now, assuming we finish Dec with 3 inches of snow this year. And we wrap up with snow in the low to mid 20s, that would be an interesting April discussion…would this have been an AN winter in a different climate? Is that the new AN?

The 4 inch threshold is just a historical marker. Much like accumulating snow before the middle of November leads to a BN total snowfall winter. You won’t find a scientific reason for it. It’s an observation on historical data that you can make a casual correlation with. And the casual correlation that a poster like blue wave has made is that in La Niña winters if we don’t get over 4 inches of snow in December you can expect a below normal snowfall winter. Now, if you wanted to dive deeper into that you could say La Niña shoots its load during December and if not much comes from that, that usually is a good indication that January and February arent going to be much better. That’s more scientific because La Niña is frontloaded for the month of December. But the reality is, these are just historical markers and you can choose to dismiss them as you wish. But better to have a flash light for possible clues then go into January blind expecting an equal chance. Historical data says otherwise.

Bullshit. I was born and raised in Queens. My parents are now wall to wall AC from May thru Sept. Something that never happened before. The place just doesnt cool off at night anymore

This is most accurate. The ifs are: If temps keep increasing as they have been in a straight line If underlying background factors dont change like a Pacific affecting the jetstream If we continue to add people and or cement. That last factor in the NY area is huge and not talked about enough. I live in Westchester between 287 and Cross County so I’m not in the hinterlands. It is not unusual in the morning to leave my house and have Jfk be 10 to 15° warmer. It is fucked up. Royally fucked up. and that has been amplified in our new warmer climate. There was always a UHI effect, but it has gotten more extreme. The city cant stay cold and cant keep snowfall on the ground. And I’m not talking about Midtown Manhattan…this is going on in Queens. for all purposes, the LaGuardia Astoria Corona area is now the hottest part of the city. And that corresponds with a huge increase in large buildings and cementing that has taken place in that area and in Flushing over the last 20 years. I’m amazed that they’re building condos on that contaminated land next to the citi field. That should be a super fund site and will be a cancer cluster. You could smell it when you drive over it on the Van Wyck.

Nothing with history. You have a warm agenda. MJO has a snow agenda. The whole forum knows it. If you pick a point between the two of you, it is likely accurate Warmth! Warming! Fast Jet! No snow ever again…haha

That is on the heels of very wet years. Everything balances out.

If youre on board…madonne…gas up the snowblowers

13F in westchester

this month is toast beyond a lucky one off for NYC. Sad for a BN Dec. Enjoy the rain Thursday.

It will always be Vernon Valley to me haha

whats pretty bad is thats better than most winter starts over the last decade

Wasnt that the dual snow storm/“blizzard” that was very unblizzard like?