They don't even know, lol, how horrible?
With the advent of cold advection this morning, model soundings
are quickly shifting colder, and the unstable layer with
minimally sheared flow will allow for lake effect snow bands to
form underneath a more general large scale snow simply from a
more efficient ice crystal growth habit in the cold advection.
Light snow has developed over eastern Lake Erie and nearby
portions of Ontario, amd likewise some banding of snow is noted
in areas we are fairly certain that contain open water over the
lake (there are mostly just to the NW of Cleveland from the
GLERL analysis). However, we haven`t gotten a good look at the
lake yet to better ascertain where additional banding may form
from, so this update really just favors much higher PoPs for the
day for snow showers over WNY and around an inch of
accumulation. It does seem some banding is developing into the
Southtowns as of this writing, so if we can determine there is a
source for this in the lake, additional updates may be
necessary. There is very definite potential for an upside
surprise today in the Buffalo area, to be certain.