mikem81

12z Friday runs

These are absolutely absurd jumps for the EURO. It’s essentially acting like the NAM which shows how volatile this setup is

I thought the 18Z RGEM was much improved and about 100 miles north with precip shield int SNJ

FWIW, the 12Z EURO was much better than 0Z just not as good as the off run 6Z or prior 18Z

AI is OTS

Surprise

6z EURO is 50-100 miles from something huge. Eastern LI gets a foot. Anyone have the EPS?

We needed that 100 mile shift west to stay in the game and we got it

The orientation of the trough coming down from SE Canada continues to trend more and more NW to SE as opposed to E to W as it lowers in the Upper Midwest. I think this is being caused by a lobe in SE canada but cant confirm. Its on the EC and not GFS as shown below EC-AIFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits AIGFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Cant imagine this was written after the 12Z guidance

The problem is that this lobe in trending weaker and north and east not stronger and west

The GFS was 500 miles off on the other hand.... GFS Model – MSLP & Precip for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Last Tuesday 12Z EURO (it ended up further north by 100 miles or so, but not 500 miles) ECMWF Model – MSLP & Precip for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Can you show this on the current model map? Would be curious what pieces we actually need to change and why the GFS is showing close to a major blizzard (still escapes east 6 hours early) versus the complete miss Euro/UK solutions

Not sure exactly what to make of this, but tomorrow is really last day for material changes from OTS to coastal. Its not going from nothing to storm in last 72 hours. Boxing Day was a long time ago and im hoping the models have improved since then