Organizing Low

snow continued to spread E to W as the decaying storm spins over NB, in fact snow fell most of the day in eastern ontario which is absolutely not upslope/ lake effect, or any combination of any other factor other than the decaying low and its atlantic moisture fetch/upper low....about 15-30cm deposited in eastern ontario and SW quebec

in addition, massive totals coming out of NE NY and VT nearing 3 ft...snow continues here, approx 14 inches as of 7pm when i came into work

the total and amount of snow deposited by this storm and its remnants in the NE is staggering IMO...

Just drove down the Champlain valley to btv, I was somewhat shocked to see everything plastered , the amount of tree loading and the blowing snow on the roads, has the ‘day after’ look if you know what I mean

Meanwhile Snow continues ....and btv late to the warnings now

sorry to hear all the stupid BS over Ray’s totals , I agree with don Sutherland wholeheartedly. 

approx 8 inches here as of 8am

got under a nice moderate band last night, still coming down solid, under the radar stuff  .... will hit double digits today 

with the prior snowpack, its deep winter out there as you all know haha

pretty incredible to see accumulating snow and at times moderate snow rotating from E to West, and now rotating back all the way into eastern ontario and the ottawa valley where they too have picked up several inches.

impressive storm...

snow starting to pick up here now, BTV finally recongizes that they really dont know how much snow is going to fall in the next couple days lol

expecting several inches tonight , BTV throwing out the possibiliy of some defo snow with the upper low....interesting

what a storm!

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

28"

congrats dude, extremely happy for you 

on a selfish note, you verify my call of 24+ lollies, outstanding storm there was never a doubt 

oh and yes where is Ray???

SN- here, had about 0.5 so far, we rolllllllllllllll haha

 im sticking with my 24+ lollis in E MA, ive got my fingers crossed for you all, seems a wicked storm those rates must be isane

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...most of these radar loops really want to suggest the low center is ~ 90 mi S of BID ...which is definitely west of modeling, certainly at the very western edge of consensus envelope if that's verified.

I think these 6 to 9 hours are critical to the total evolution of this thing.  If we get the center jump east out to a new low near the triple point axis of the lengthening occluded boundary then the previous head scratch solutions have merit.  If however, this western low center - which frankly is already a slight bust in my opinion - remains more dominant, than the phasing evolution (which has only been non-committal and partial to date) may also be a more fluid determination.

All that said ... doesn't really matter. I have personally been obsessing over the fact that the governing synoptic evolution so favored phasing...yet failing, that the reality of this storm ginormous girth and mid level mechanics bowing so far back W is probably the same damn thing sensibly to a small storm making a closer pass.  So what difference does it really make?  not a lot.. .I guess for things to "make sense" ...it would be more settling to see this western solution work out... but, seeing as it has already to this point at least a little, may also be an acceptable compromise.

So...some philosophy to go with some obs.  30F ; 3" 1/3 mi vis S

i enjoyed this post, thanks Tip

i just woke up and took a quick look at guidance and then over to the NWS box

granted i dont have access to the ecm guidance, but i think they are a bit conservstive here

im calling for 16-24 with 24+ lollies in eastern MA 

interesting to see the US models paste a secondary maxima (albeit over a few days) over vermont with the upper low, the gfs actually gives more qpf (FWIW) to vermont than eastern mass LOL

HI-larious!

what a great thread!