Organizing Low
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Posts posted by Organizing Low
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theres a lot of snow out there
its snows where it wants to snow.
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approx 5-6 inches here, expect a bit more today as SN- continues
had an hour last night between 12-1 some of the heavier snow of the year 2in/hr stuff, it was pouring and heavier than any point during the 'big' storm a couple weeks ago
lots of snow on the ground, im guessing the most since i moved here in 2012.
i will be staying inside today, not a fan of wind and cold as my bones get older....
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more cold, more snow today, broken record at this point
just got back from chicago for the week... the wind and cold out there was wicked.
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just got outside for a first look
7 inches of pure fluff, could blow it away with a deep breath i think.
currently feeling toasty at -1F and SN-, a lull before the next batch
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Burlington, VT HVY SNOW -4 -9 77 N8 29.88F VSB 1/4 WCI -19 -
From BTV, indeed too cold to snow efficiently, the fly in the ointment! As of 416 AM EST Sunday...Winter storm warnings continue across the North Country today as surface low pressure over the central Appalachians this morning tracks to the tip of Cape Cod by later this afternoon and then off into the Gulf of St. Lawrence tonight. Little overall change was made to the forecast this morning but there are a few challenging parts to talk about. First and foremost is snow ratios and temps. Models continue to struggle mightily with low level cold air advection persisting down the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys where temperatures as of 4AM are still in the single digit below zero. Elsewhere across the central Adirondacks and central/southern Vermont where the 925mb flow has shifted southeasterly, temps have risen into the single digits and teens above zero. A handful of reports upstream indicate where southeasterly flow is more prevalent, snow ratios have been ranged from 10-20:1, while here at BTV where temps are much colder we`ve seen mostly needles falling with very low ratios in the 8-12:1 range. Ratios have increased recently across the Champlain Valley as a mesoscale band associated with an enhanced ribbon of 700mb fgen is lifting through, but expect after it passes we`ll be back into lower ratios again until later this morning when better 850mb fgen will pivot through the area.
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and just like that we have real snow with temps from BTV north remaining below zero near -20C on the ground
currently -4F, 1/2 mile- 3/4 mile visibilty, this should pile up rather quick as things intensify
wind chill -10F
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this has been a painful wait, but the real snow is finally knocking on the door in BTV
after hours and hours of arctic sand amounting to 1 inch out there lol, of course the roads are a debacle anyways as the temp is -5F windchill -16F currently
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:
Typical Road salt becomes almost totally useless around -5F. But once youre below 10F, it is struggling...it just gets less ad less effective as you get lower, and once youre well into negative numbers, it's pretty bad.
Awesome answer!
now i know....thank you!
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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
Ray, the brine solution they typically use to pretreat roads before a storm drops the freezing point of the water to about 18F....so it starts losing its effectiveness at that temp. Then they have to use more straight salt.
thx for the explanation.
doesn't salt also lose its effectiveness below a certain temps
growing up in ottawa, we had that problem on certain days, the roads just became snow packed, until the temp warmed up.
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Aren't the chemicals that they use on the road much less effective one the temp hits 17*, or did I make that up?
yes that is a thing , but i think the temperature is lower than that, i believe its single digits....im sure someone else can chime in.
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9 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:
January 1996?
thanks!
was living in canada at the time
i do recall the strong arctic high , looking for temp data now....
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30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:
Just a nice steady snow at BTV this evening.
A balmy -6F and snowing. That is one of the coldest observations you will ever see heading into a decent snow event.
cant recall any event that ive ever been in where we start with temps of -20C and end up with more than 16 or 18 inches of snow....a distinct possibility here, which would be a stunning turn of events to say the least. perhaps someone else can chime in with something similar? dendrite? anyone?
still holding at a refreshing -8F here.
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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:
1.5" up at 1500ft on the car.
Not upslope fluff but cold dry powder.
It is snowing nicely out and if these bigger flakes are what we see, then 1" of QPF will be plenty to get this deep.
Interesting I've been noticing radar echos moving south and north at the same time. You can see it here, like narrow bands moving in different directions. Also if these echos produce this steady snow, I can't wait to see what like 30dbz would do.
my concern is efficient snows in such cold temps, the fly in the ointment as far as i can tell....hope you are on to something!
still -8F
wind has calmed
SN- , not much accumulation the past couple hours, still around 0.5 down
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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:
Just incredible cold temps and snow combo.
For impacts, mainly looking at significant to dangerous travel conditions CWA-wide late tonight through Sunday morning. This will be because of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates and wind chills of 10 to 20 below, especially across northern sections. Blowing and drifting will also increase on Sunday morning. Travel is generally not advised due to the dangerous cold and poor road conditions/low visibility overnight into Sunday morning.
Agreed. It’s eerie out there, if that’s the right word. The btv discussion put it in perspective nicely - it’s a keeper
For the first time ever , I came to work tonight fully expecting not to go home in the morning, and crash here. Packed extra clothes and food. As have many others. This will be an experience.
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-8F
sn-
half inch down with the arctic moon out and shining down through the sugar
wind chill -26
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Lots of snow on the way , unfortunately might get stuck at work at the height of it Sunday morning
hospital is giving hotel rooms to those that travel from afar....
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Thanks for posting those euro maps Ray.
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winter rolls on
not much else to say
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15 hours ago, CoastalWx said:
Long range looks good though. Decent Pacific and Atlantic.
good to hear....
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14 hours ago, tamarack said:
Might've been me, as I parsed the local long-tern co-op and found that BN temps on Oct were followed, on average, by BN snow. BN temps in Nov led to AN snowfall. However, neither trend was huge - the snowfall variation was mainly between 90-110% of average. This Oct was 3°+ below average and Nov looks to finish BN as well, which would be just the 3rd time in 21 years for that double play. O-N 2002 were each solidly BN and we had a long, cold, but not very snowy winter. O-N 2008 were both BN, but Nov by less than 1°, and that winter had the rare (for my sheltered locale) true blizzard in Dec plus the 24.5" dump in late Feb. I'll have to check Farmington for years with BN temps for both months.
thanks for the post Tam. good info here.
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cant say ive looked at the long term forecasts, but we went straight from summer to 1-2 weeks of fall at best, to below normal temps by early october that haven]t let up yet with snow and cold. im always wary of a cold octobers that lead to early winters around here, as it typically does not last, leading to warmer than normal winter.
i do recall someone posting evidence to back that up in the past.
let see what happens this year.
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PNS BTV remarked a public ob of 18.5 in st albans, but i will esimtate my final to be between 16-17 inches....a pleasant surprise here in the CPV
NNE Winter Thread
in New England
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yes thats exactly it, no lake effect no elevation no orographic, just open tundra. january is also the coldest and driest month there. they ended up with 107 cm per my dad, for the new record.
they have a constant snowpack, while the CPV melts, the thaws in ottawa are generally short lived and usually preceded by significant icing. its a give and take.
the winters in ottawa are very harsh due to the cold, snowpack, and plenty of ice when we rain. ive been telling my elderly parents to get a winter home down south....last few years ive noticed they've been trapped inside. but i guess that happens in vermont too.